Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:

. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Can see the thread fine - and we do data here so no "it's just flu" people or you will get something handed to you on a plate.

Covid now 3rd leasing cause of death in USA. www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/

I'll try to refrain from posting much unless facts or data. Just popping on to let you know the link worked fine for me.

I have reported that link at the end of last thread which was to a pro-Russian far right conspiracy site

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

Zero Hedge or ZeroHedge[b] is a far-right[12] libertarian[17] financial blog,[13][14]
Over time, Zero Hedge expanded into non-financial analysis,[c] such as conspiracy theories and fringe rhetoric[27] that has been associated with the US radical right[14][28]

and a pro-Russian bias.[1][29][30][31]

Zero Hedge's non-financial commentary has led to a number of § Site bans by various global social media platforms,

i posted this on another thread the other day, but it might bear repeating...

IFR (for both Covid and Flu) varies widely by age, but according to the CDC, IFR for 70+ for Covid is around 5.4%, and for the 50-69s, 0.5%.

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

and IFR for Flu for the over 65s is around 0.8% - so Covid is about 7x this for this age group. For the 50-64s, it's about 0.06%, so Covid is about 8x worse for them.

www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html (needs calculating from table 2)

IFR for 18-49 year olds is about the same; and Flu actually has a higher IFR for infants, though the IFR is absolutely tiny for both Covid and Flu for them anyway.

I thought the age risk started at 45, not 50?
I wonder where that age group fits in re flu, and separately for Covid.
SAGE had something about the over 45s. I'll try to find a link tomorrow if no-one has anything.

An example to illustrate that Covid is much more deadly than flu

Sweden Covid (with limited SD) vs flu years (no SD)

2020 Covid so far
5,892 deaths of lab- confirmed Covid

2018-2019 flu season
505 deaths lab-confirmed flu

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511

2017-2018 flu season
1,021 deaths lab-confirmed flu

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/pubreader/api/download/54559

2017-2018 flu season
734 deaths lab-confirmed flu

Also this bears repeating:

@SheepandCow

I thought the age risk started at 45, not 50? I wonder where that age group fits in re flu, and separately for Covid. SAGE had something about the over 45s. I'll try to find a link tomorrow if no-one has anything.

I used 50 because that's what the CDC breakout is! They don't get anymore granular in those reports than 18-49, though I agree there is likely to be a measurable change as age increases in that group.

Flu versus COVID in 2020 so far. No contest

.

Overview of several flu & Covid studies wrt age
LOG graph, so Covid IFR becomes significantly higher from age 45

The important thing to remember is that the deaths are pretty low under age 45 for both diseases
so the age range when Covid is a much higher risk is the age when the vast majority of deaths occur for both

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921187/S0656_Forty-eighth_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf
Found it. Minutes of the 48th SAGE meeting 23 July 2020.

It seems to me the 45-50 age group are quite vulnerable. Increased risk, but with it not being acknowledged limited protection.

I'm in the 45-50 age group and work in hospitality. Was working tonight in Edinburgh, the last night of restaurant service before the Scotland Central Belt restrictions come to in. It was like a return to Eat Out to Help Out levels of businesses. I like that the Scottish restrictions have been timed to cover 3 weekends and coming home and reading about Nottingham etc, I'm amazed and horrified that no further hospitality restrictions are coming in until yet another weekend has passed.

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6.full.pdf

While the NYC data indicate an IFR of about 1%, seroprevalence estimates from other locations have yielded a wide array of IFR estimates, ranging from about 0·6% in Geneva to levels exceeding 2% in northern Italy.
.....
We find that differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 explain about 90% of the geographical variation in population IFR.
......
These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults,
for whom
the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident
and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza.

From that paper, 2 more graphs:

. The Log linear relationship IFR & age
. Benchmark analysis of IFGR & age

Place marking

Morning.

frazzled if you are here. I did note Goldington, but also rises in Cauldwell (not students) and cases in the villages to the SW of Bedford , too. Quite a lot in Kempston/Wootton/ Kempston Rural/ Stewartby area. Some of these may well be care homes.

If you mean Central Beds as the area 'next to me', there are rises, but less steep.. There seems to be quite a stigma now attached to going for tests, as if it's scaremongering or not 'community spirited' so we are finding lots of students just staying off for a week or more. I suppose that is another way of slowing spread...

Thanks for the new thread BCF.

I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more of this graph over the weekend. Didn’t Whitty and Valance say we’d end up at France and Spain levels in 2 weeks if we didn’t act properly?

Largely a plea for more high quality research to be done, but this article has interesting links to a range of articles examining long covid; the careful separation of the different types of issues was interesting: post-viral chronic fatigue, prolonged and relapsing course of illness, persistent symptoms, cardiovascular issues from MRI scans, PTSD, pulmonary issues and exercise capacity, new onset diabetes, mental health: www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext.

Cardiovascular and pulmonary issues are fairly well known but the impact needs a lot more assessment, new onset diabetes is one I hadn't heard of (and I wonder how many long covid suffers are putting the fatigue down as persistent symptoms rather than recognising diabetes). PTSD is common from any ICU experience and chronic fatigue from any severe illness. It's an interesting distinction between prolonged/relapsing covid versus persistent symptoms, unclear how anyone would know the difference right now.

The rise in Type 1 diabetes in children post covid has had a lot of attention in the medical world, it hasn’t all filtered through to research yet, but the medical community has issued a variety of alerts about it. Such a weird illness that we just don’t understand enough about!

Here’s a link to the story about diabetes in children from Imperial

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201473/covid-19-linked-increase-type-diabetes-children/

The situation in Sweden is a lot more nuanced than people realise. They had a very mild flu season prior to covid arriving (as did the UK). All cause mortality this year is not exceptional and lower than several of its neighbours that are frequently lauded for their approach to tackling covid. This makes me think that they may have been counting covid deaths in a more inclusive way. The other argument I often see when Sweden is mentioned is population density. However more Swedes live in cities than do in the UK. @HaroldOfW on twitter has been a great follow for getting the Swedish perspective on their measures. The chart below shows all cause mortality in Sweden over the last few years. The year that stands out is 2019 which is much lower with a return to more normal levels this year.

To slightly misquote SAGE - around two thirds of people in the uk live in a household with at least one person over 45

There are already some researchers (uk and elsewhere) looking at long term fatigue, their research could be built on now if the medical world stopped pretending chronic fatigue was a psychiatric problem.