Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

COVID-19 Proposed Social Distancing Framework

Official Sensitive
For official use only

• Local Conveners Briefing Aid
• 30 September 2020

https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/english/covid-19proposeddsocialdistancinggframeworkbriefingg_aid.pdf

@whenwillthemadnessend

What's the difference between home and household?

Don’t ask me which is which but I would assume one means from your own household and the other means from visiting another household.

I think 50 is too low for red or it's own.
Perhaps over 100 or over 50 and rising quickly (with a definition of what rising quickly is please!)

But I suspect places that are way higher will just think they'll never get out of it, so why bother, and those that are just into it will feel that they're being lumped in with people nearly 10 times the number.

But I'd be in favour of a 5 level one, I think, with 5 being complete lockdown for high levels increasing rapidly.
I think having level 3 with still a lot of things open means there's nowhere to go if things aren't contained with those measures, so they'll then (a bit like A*s in GCSES ) have to add ones on top.

"And now we are adding level 87, which has all the measures of level 86 plus you need to wear a full biohazard suit when you fetch the shopping..."

BCF looks like the link is broken/blocked....

This slide again. It is basically where people have been in the run up to testing positive not where they caught the virus. Says at the bottom “possible transmission events”. Is simply a tool to justify closure of hospitality

[quote Frazzled2207]@RedToothBrush
Yes but there is a big difference between running out of Covid beds and running out of all beds. Unfortunately cancelling routine stuff will free up a lot of beds. Not that that’s a good prospect.
There was a stat floating round yesterday- 4% of all hospital beds in the NW are taken up by Covid patients. The figure is 2% nationally. So it’s not at all the case (yet) that that hospitals are “full” of Covid patients[/quote]
....
It's more that the addition of Covid patients is taking up the very limited NHS spare capacity

• and we are not even into late Autumn, let alone winter (when in recent years we read of the elderly being left for hours on hospital trolleys because there are no bed)

Having to cancel "non-urgent ops"

• that covers a lot of categories and can leave some people with serious problems later, but it's difficult to see a feasible alternative

Those agitating to end SD and complaining "only Covid counts" seem to think somehow those Covid beds would be magically freed up - in reality they would soon take up far more beds
I wonder if they simply want Covid patients to be denied treatment, or if they haven't thought it through

Local BBC News were reporting last night that the NW will have a peak twice that of the April peak on current projections. And that could happen within 6 weeks.

@Augustbreeze

BCF looks like the link is broken/blocked....

... it's another link with several underlines in the name, which buggers up MN

If you google title, link works

The lack of work or educational settings in that slide, which previous figures covered 26% and 38% of cases respectively is so manipulative.

@RedToothBrush

Local BBC News were reporting last night that the NW will have a peak twice that of the April peak on current projections. And that could happen within 6 weeks.

.... cases / hospitalisations / deaths ?

The slide with the places of transmission on it is - as people have noted - part of a briefing document. It’s been produced for a specific purpose so I don’t think it having education and hospitality on it is some sort of conspiracy.

I think it was leaked by one of the attendees at the meeting? It demonstrates the danger of leaking docs without the surrounding context ( acknowledging the government themselves frequently leak like this).

Not having education and workplace on it that should read!

@BigChocFrenzy I had copied in not long before u and it's working

https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/english/covid-19proposeddsocialdistancinggframeworkbriefingg_aid.pdf

Hospitalisations if memory serves. I think they were talking about problems with beds and there being real concerns about it.

Its frustrating because I can't check because the BBC doesn't report this elsewhere.

Hopefully someone else saw North West Tonight and can confirm.

It does tie in with the guardian report that Liverpool is concerned about beds running out.

I should also add that its worth noting that the during the last peak NW hospital capacity was exceeded in places hence the Manchester Nightingale which served the region being open so long.

That does suggest there is probably a big issue on the horizon and could hit a lot sooner than most people are currently anticipating.

The lack of work or educational settings in that slide, which previous figures covered 26% and 38% of cases respectively is so manipulative.

Agreed. I find it difficult to understand why they'd be left off, whatever the context to be honest.

Unless the context is, let's pretend we're doing something that will bring rates down while leaving a massive gaping hole in that strategy elsewhere (in an indoor, crowded environment perfect for coronavirus spread)?

Red You might still be able to re-watch NW Tonight on iplayer? I missed it. 🤦🏻‍♀️

Red

was it this?
twitter.com/BBCRadioManc/status/1314485933518004225

The social survey is interesting.

All of these
My well-being is being affected (for example, boredom, loneliness, anxiety and stress)
Lack of freedom and independence
Access to healthcare and treatment for non-coronavirus (COVID-19) related issues is being affected

are at the highest they've been in any survey, it would be nice if the "do you support targeted measures" was a more useful question, as it's worded such that everyone says yes to it, 'cos it says nothing about the actual measures are.

The over 70's are less stressed, with less strained personal relationships, with less worse mental health, and much less lonely.

@pussycatinboots

Red You might still be able to re-watch NW Tonight on iplayer? I missed it. 🤦🏻‍♀️

If I can get on iplayer later I'll see. DH is currently working on the sofa I'm afraid.

Red

or this?
twitter.com/MsGillD/status/1314246299663949826/photo/1

[quote pussycatinboots]Red

was it this?
twitter.com/BBCRadioManc/status/1314485933518004225[/quote]
I think it was something like that. They were saying we are currently on the same number of beds taken up on 20th March. But since we were not going to have another full lockdown we wouldn't have the benefit of that reducing social contacts to the same degree. Hence why they were predicting such a big problem in such a short time frame.

[quote pussycatinboots]Red

or this?
twitter.com/MsGillD/status/1314246299663949826/photo/1[/quote]
Yes that was one of the graphs they used in the piece.

[quote pussycatinboots]Red

or this?
twitter.com/MsGillD/status/1314246299663949826/photo/1[/quote]
It's this one then.

Home = where you live, Household = visiting one or more people in a private dwelling.

UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

NHS England COVID-19 related absences of staff, through sickness or self-isolation.

• April 8th (peak), 106,597 staff absent
• September 7th is the lowest known day (11,724 absent)
• October 1st (latest data) 19,493 absent