Has the South got more herd immunity after the last wave?

[Marcellemouse]

Given that we're now seeing how common it is to be asymptomatic, could it be that many more people in the South had CV prior to the first wave than we realised? I believe their numbers of cases were higher back in March but maybe much higher.

A lot of people tweeting similar, we are near Mcr and it’s really bad up here atm in terms of infection numbers, it hadn’t really hit up here when lockdown happened in March. In my own very unscientific opinion I’d say it’s quite feasible?!

Seems a plausible explanation to me. However someone will be along in a minute to say its because we are thick in the North and can't follow rules.

@mooshie06

A lot of people tweeting similar, we are near Mcr and it’s really bad up here atm in terms of infection numbers, it hadn’t really hit up here when lockdown happened in March. In my own very unscientific opinion I’d say it’s quite feasible?!

Andy Burnham said Manchester area/parts of the north west were in a worse position with Covid when Boris opened the country back up than they were when going into lockdown in March.

Part of the problem up north is they never really got rid of the first wave because they barely had a first wave when the country locked down. It was London that was battered by it predominantly and the surrounding areas with the most commuters to there.

Therefore the response has been centered around London.

I believe so.
I’m in Essex and I know of quite a few people who believe they had it before it was publicised.
My Dad was really ill in December, GP diagnosed a nasty virus. I have friends who were ill in February and believe they had Covid.
I appreciate they could have just had another virus, but it does make you wonder.

Hmm I don’t know as our local area numbers are now on their way up ‘ ( London ) in the “ first wave “ we had in total about 869 known
Cases in our 1 little borough and since the numbers started again in the last month or so we have had 434 cases so we are gradually getting up there now to.

Therefore the response has been centered around London.

As an example of this. Cases bad in London in March - country goes into a harsh lockdown. London clears first wave and then the country emerges from lockdown.

First wave picks up pace in Manchster/parts of the north over the summer. Government response? Get back to the office and eat out to get the virus. Then in September thousands of Uni students turn up and all the schools go back.

The north had a lockdown when cases were extremely low here. Now they're very high, the local measures have barely differed to the national ones. The north have been fucked over basically.

@annabel85 you’re absolutely right, I do think we never really experienced the first wave in the same way London did, but we are in it up to our necks now. I hope we will see a peak soon! Anecdotally I don’t know anybody who is very poorly with it atm (I know several and they are all high schoolers or sixth formers) and I’m hoping it stays that way x

There wasn't much difference to London in urban areas outside London back in March/April

Now the cases are not just rising in the north either.

You are not allowed to suggest this as far as I know as it goes against the 80% need to have it rule and the you can catch it again rule. As well as the don't forget Long Covid rule.

@Jrobhatch29

Seems a plausible explanation to me. However someone will be along in a minute to say its because we are thick in the North and can't follow rules.

How is that helpful?

I think there are a few factors at play - and I don’t think any of the experts have fully got to the bottom of it - but cases were far more widespread in London and SE in March/April so this probably does play a part.

People in Glasgow said the same when Aberdeen was bad with it. But they got on top of it with a 3 week proper lockdown. Glasgow and the west they've footer about ban people from visiting houses but your ok to meet the same people in a place with a till

I wouldn't say London are out of the woods with Covid though by any means. The whole 'get back to the office' campaign was designed to emerge London from a ghost town (and offices are still empty). There's very few tourists, as opposed to the normal masses and hordes. Sports stadiums lie empty (you'd normally get hundreds of thousands of people just attending football games in the city every Saturday alone). The West End is dead. Nightclubs all closed. Rush hour is a fraction of what it would normally be on the tube and on trains. Going into March London was still as busy as it ever was while the virus was spreading like wildfire.

London having a very nice and hot summer as well helped keep people outside. All the restrictions and the lack of visitors into London helps control the virus a fair bit.

People say the centre of London has been dead (I don't know I haven't been but the above are the examples of how it's so much quieter than it normally is). The cities up north have still had the same bustle in the centre because things aren't as spread out as they are in London. That would change somewhat if the hospitality venues were all shut down. The city centres were dead in March and April but picked up massively once the shops and pubs opened.

"How is that helpful?"

Wasn't trying to be helpful tbf. I've seen it said loads of times on here that the rates are high here because we don't follow the rules which is a load of rubbish.

I actually think we still had a lot of virus circulatin when we came out of lockdown, compared to the south where numbers came down really fast

@Bikingbear

People in Glasgow said the same when Aberdeen was bad with it. But they got on top of it with a 3 week proper lockdown. Glasgow and the west they've footer about ban people from visiting houses but your ok to meet the same people in a place with a till

The only way to control a big outbreak in an area is a lockdown. The problem in the northern cities is they've introduced extremely puny extra restrictions which will make no difference, therefore the virus keeps increasing.

The exception was Leicester over the summer who did have a proper lockdown and therefore get a hold of it.

Yes, I think you could be right. I’m in the SE and vast numbers are still wfh so that should also help.

I have been wondering too. An area near me that was really badly hit in the first wave is hardly getting any cases now.

People in the north can afford a large house on an average wage. Larger house usually means more kids/teens at home. London is full of expat types who are isolated in flats and can work away from the office, especially using the excuse that transport isn't safe. People up north use cars so have less excuse to not be in.

These are my guesses. Eventually I'm assuming schools will completely shut for the teens/young adults and there will be more pressure for people to work from home. I think we are being prepared for a complete overhaul of the education system, especially considering that pretty much all of the universities have lost respect with how they have exploited students this year.

No, ONS are monitoring antibodies through random testing. Can't remember the exact figures, about 13% in london I think and a lot lower outside London. The South West has the lowest proportion of people with antibodies.

In the first wave London and then Birmingham fared worse because we had lockdown before it took off too badly in other places. There'll be all sorts of factors why urban areas in the north have been worst hit this time round (so far), including luck - i.e. where a superspreading event happens to occur.

Cases in London are rising rapidly again now.

It doesn't make much sense to talk about 'more herd immunity' because herd immunity is a tipping point. If enough people are immune then the virus is unlikely to find new hosts and so it will die out. Herd immunity is when we reach that point, which is a lot higher than the proportion of people who have had the virus in London or more recent hotspots. The vast majority of people are still susceptible throughout the country.

I don’t know ... cases are really rising in London too. I get PHE briefings as part my job (school SLT in a London borough) and there has been concern about our borough for weeks now. We are not far off parts of the North.

People in the north can afford a large house on an average wage. Larger house usually means more kids/teens at home.

Very few large houses in the north. Our houses were built as homes for mill workers and coal miners

London is full of expat types who are isolated in flats and can work away from the office, especially using the excuse that transport isn't safe. People up north use cars so have less excuse to not be in

We do have public transport though and electricity and even the internet

@elmouno

People in the north can afford a large house on an average wage. Larger house usually means more kids/teens at home. London is full of expat types who are isolated in flats and can work away from the office, especially using the excuse that transport isn't safe. People up north use cars so have less excuse to not be in.

These are my guesses. Eventually I'm assuming schools will completely shut for the teens/young adults and there will be more pressure for people to work from home. I think we are being prepared for a complete overhaul of the education system, especially considering that pretty much all of the universities have lost respect with how they have exploited students this year.

Make better informed guesses!

@Flaxmeadow

I'm not trying to make negative comments about the north, just going by what I've seen since I've lived in both areas. I actually much prefer the north, but it's just honest to say that I've seen far more families afford a 4 bed in the north, while people down south choose to not have kids because they know their flat is too small, or they have try to squeeze 1-2 kids in a box room or something. Not saying everyone of course, but the north generally has a better quality of life from what I have seen for people who want 2-4 kids. It is very common for people in London to opt out of having children, or they just put all their time/money towards 1.

I'm in London and not counting my chickens 🐔🥚🐣

I'm in London and know several people who had covid in Feb/March. So I think it's highly possible that there was extensive spread in London in the early days. I'm convinced viral load is a key factor.

I hate the idea of this turning into a north/south debate though.