Has the South got more herd immunity after the last wave?

[Marcellemouse]

Given that we're now seeing how common it is to be asymptomatic, could it be that many more people in the South had CV prior to the first wave than we realised? I believe their numbers of cases were higher back in March but maybe much higher.

Was reminded of this thread listening to PM on the radio. One reason they gave for the difference between London (as opposed to the south as a whole) and those areas in the north where there is a local lockdown is that there is much less informal childcare in London so fewer opportunities for the virus to spread between households. I think we really need to think more about local differences - as other posters have said - before cases and hospitalisations rise to the levels they were in March.

@cathyandclare @sashagabadon

I've said the same thing on a couple of threads, I really don't understand the "we ended lockdown too early for the North" argument. Even if the government were focussed entirely on what was going on in London the earlier lockdown should have been a help for the North not a hindrance. Why wasn't it?

Just came on to say my friend who works in a local hospital had it in April (positive test). She's still suffering the consequences with lack of smell and taste. Had the antibody test this week. NO ANTIBODIES. She's not immune despite having it less than 6 months ago

In my wealthy area of the SE (outside London) we are up to 65 cases per 100K, which is level 3 if the leaked new levels do come in. A week ago it was 23.

No one knows if herd immunity will even really be a factor or how long immunity will last.

@gigi556 lack of antibodies does not equal lack of immunity.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@gigi556 lack of antibodies does not equal lack of immunity.[/quote]
Why do people still think this?

sorry...I was agreeing with you!

Haven’t read the thread but my bit of ‘the South’ (about 5 hours from Manchester) has had hardly any cases, so no, we don’t have herd immunity here.

Hester, I recall them testing for rubella antibodies when I was pregnant. If I didn't have then I'd have been given a booster.

It's a bit confusing for the layperson tbh.

@HesterShaw1 @Sunshinegirl82
What the heck does it mean then and why would they test for the antibodies?

This article has some information. Antibodies are only one part of the immune response. They are good at showing us if someone has ever had Covid (which is one of the reasons they test for them) but less good at giving an indication of immunity.

www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/coronavirus-t-cells-patients-missing-antibodies

These are also useful:

www.city-journal.org/covid-19-our-attitude-toward-vaccines

www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine

I've only read the first page, but I find this theory a little frustrating.

Let me wade in bang in the middle, because all this talk of north and south leaves huge parts of the country - the Midlands - out of this debate and as I live in the second largest city, I'd like a say.

In Birmingham, we were hit similarly hard to many parts of London boroughs with the so called first wave. At one point our local hospital trust had more admissions and deaths than anywhere. In theory we too should have this herd immunity. Yet we are being hit similarly hard now, so that can't be the case.

Plus, I've seen that some boroughs are up to 89 per 100k so numbers may be risins.

I just think London and the south are a couple of weeks behind Newcastle/Manchester. Cases are rising everywhere and the areas seeing big rises seem to be spreading southwards.

I think we had it in Nov/Dec time. London office lots of people ill, virus and continuous coughs etc

@middleager

I've only read the first page, but I find this theory a little frustrating.

Let me wade in bang in the middle, because all this talk of north and south leaves huge parts of the country - the Midlands - out of this debate and as I live in the second largest city, I'd like a say.

In Birmingham, we were hit similarly hard to many parts of London boroughs with the so called first wave. At one point our local hospital trust had more admissions and deaths than anywhere. In theory we too should have this herd immunity. Yet we are being hit similarly hard now, so that can't be the case.

Plus, I've seen that some boroughs are up to 89 per 100k so numbers may be risins.

Make that 120 in 100,000 - one poster from a London borough has just posted this figure on another thread. That's the same as my nearest town - which waa regularly the 'riskiest' place in the country for CV back in March/April. Yet we should be immune according to the theory.

Just checked my London borough is now 101 per 100k according to the bbc page. The total covid deaths is 403 to date so something like 1 in 590 of the population. We were hit hard earlier but current infection rates are above average.

I just think London and the south are a couple of weeks behind Newcastle/Manchester

We are in the South West and everyone kept saying this last time. It didn't happen then, not sure if it will happen now.

I'm in the South West and don't know anyone who has had it, not even symptoms.

I've heard of cases near but luckily we've avoided it so far.

Everyone wears masks here, even some outdoors. It's only a matter of time though...

Plus, what's the point in herd immunity when must can get it twice??

People can get chicken pox twice, but not many. Also if its mutating to be less deadly but more infectious, then you could catch different mutations.

Some of the worst hit areas of London have had quite alarming increases in cases in the last few weeks.

It's a shame the government peddled the idea of natural herd immunity through infection so early on and before there was any evidence to suggest this would even be possible.

@annabel85

Therefore the response has been centered around London.

As an example of this. Cases bad in London in March - country goes into a harsh lockdown. London clears first wave and then the country emerges from lockdown.

First wave picks up pace in Manchster/parts of the north over the summer. Government response? Get back to the office and eat out to get the virus. Then in September thousands of Uni students turn up and all the schools go back.

The north had a lockdown when cases were extremely low here. Now they're very high, the local measures have barely differed to the national ones. The north have been fucked over basically.

Don't understand ...So many on MN were saying uk locked down too late for it to have been effective. Now your'e saying North was locked down too early. - you still had the same amount of time in lockdown as rest of country ??????

Perhaps - who knows? I'm in London and know a lot of people who have had the virus in February/March before widespread testing. Also know a lot of medical people and most of them have tested positive to antibodies - some remember being ill and others do not - suggesting a lot of asymptotic illness.

Also I don't get this idea that the north exited lockdown with higher/uncontrolled cases and therefore cases are now higher than the south. Surely if an area went into lockdown with very low cases (as suggested by those saying lockdown was due to London being bad) then after 3/4 months of proper lockdown, like the whole country had, these places in the NE/NW should have almost eradicated community spread. You don't go into lockdown with low numbers and emerge with the same or higher rates, surely?? So Andy Burnham is clutching at straws IMO.

I've no idea why things are worse in the north - I expect returning students to large university towns must be playing a significant part.

People were still becoming infected during lockdown. A lot of the population carried on working. The daily briefings spoke of getting cases down to a certain level before lifting restrictions but then suddenly all went quiet and the magic date of opening back up etc. The figures were countrywide so different areas were at different levels yet the whole country opened up at the same time. Leicester had to go back to restrictions quite quickly as cases continued rising. Like has been said before it is a combination of reasons why some areas are currently higher.