Has the South got more herd immunity after the last wave?

[Marcellemouse]

Given that we're now seeing how common it is to be asymptomatic, could it be that many more people in the South had CV prior to the first wave than we realised? I believe their numbers of cases were higher back in March but maybe much higher.

No. The ONS antibody and prevalence studies don’t show that at all.
The north had far higher cases coming out of lockdown

We don’t have herd immunity though I don’t think. Just more interruption of transmission chains which slows it down.

Does anybody know how many people the ONS tested for antibodies and how they decided to test people
If only a few thousand i can't see how tHat would give you accurate figures surely with a country of over 60 million you would have to test maybe 500000 or so ??
Also did they test people who think they may of had it
I know of one family member who was asked to take part i ln an antibody test , if these test are good and accurate should be testing hundreds of thousands to see - maybe they did , where can you fins out

I think it took longer to spread to northern parts of the country and we came out of lockdown a bit soon for those areas. The rates are now rising in London too so I don't think the difference will persist.

My DD was in Manchester for uni in March and was very upset when she came home to London first because of lockdown. Now she's back there at uni and despite everyone she knows having it she's just tested negative. We thought we might have had it in April but we weren't tested so we don't know. And it's not proven that it gives you immunity to further bouts.

There must be some herd immunity, how long it lasts for no one knows, but surely medical staff dealing with Covid day to day would be constantly I’ll from being reinfected, where I haven’t heard one person being very ill twice, I maybe wrong but surely it would be on the news if people kept getting it twice and being really ill.

I'm in the South and dd and I had something in early Feb which was identical to the description of covid. Dd is now at uni and although her boyfriend and three housemates have all tested positive, she's negative...so who knows?!

I don't understand the too soon out of lockdown thing. In March everyone was talking about the UK locking down too late, which meant we had to lock down for longer.

Surely, by that argument, Northern cities should have nipped it in the bud by closing down early with lower infection levels. Like Germany for example. I wonder whether increased levels of immunity may have dropped the R in the south. Maybe plus more light/bit D at this time of year.

But how does this fit with the argument that the lockdown was too late? This has been the cry from the lockdown enthusiasts. Now they seem to be saying lockdown was too early for the north?!
I have always thought lockdown was a week late for London but about right for rest of uk.
Those in north would have been furious back in March if only London had locked down as people were practically begging for it
Piers Morgan lost his mind on Twitter.
Either lockdown was too late ( the generally accepted answer for most members of the summer) or it was too early ( the new answer from some) but it can’t be both.
I remember Whitty et all were suggesting a June lockdown back early March but changed his tune after the Ferguson prediction. Whitty was right though, you can only lockdown hard once and it is all about the timing - so was it too soon?!
I also don’t think London is at herd immunity yet but obviously has some immunity which is helping slow the virus somewhat.
My Trust had 23% antibodies plus 500 or so staff were on the vaccine trial so that will help too.
I just think it is different people catching the virus this time, so students rather than care home elderly.

Great minds Sasha!

Just popping in to politely point out that calling London "the south" is like calling Birmingham "the north".

But it’s true! It can’t be both too soon and too late. I now think about right but it was always going to happen like this once uni’s went back. My relative is at Nottingham uni and had a test despite no symptoms. Low and behold positive. So she is adding to the positive Nottingham figures despite feeling perfectly well and only got tested as they set up a mobile testing unit at her halls!

We will never know. You can’t lockdown forever though. The problem is when we came out of lockdown the testing system failed so no one knows who has it, if you want get handle on it everyone needs testing once a week.

I’m also in the south east. I got hospitalised in late January and had bad asthma, I was in for a week, however when I normally come out of hospital after being in for just a few days I feel so well rested it’s nice (I have a busy life) but this year when I came out I was still kicked to the curb for 2 weeks after! My eldest also caught the cold the family had and she never gets colds, even when the whole house is ill with it. I believe I had Covid then along with my family but who knows for sure?

Nobody anywhere has ever suggested that "we lock down for ever" @Alex50. Its a straw man you like to chuck in at every possible opportunity, generally just before you suggest that the vulnerable are shut up at home for ever whilst the rest if us get in with our lives.

My London Borough has over 1300 cases according to the Zoe app. A month of so ago it was closer to 100.

It's the pathway out of lockdown that is at issue. Keeping a lid on infections until a vaccine can be rolled out.
Instead we had daft Boris trying to get everyone commuting again. And a general lackadaisical approach from folk who are journalists and spinners by training and out of their depth.

It's likely to be a combination of reasons. When the UK came out of lockdown there were more cases still circulating in the areas currently seeing high cases. Back in the 'traffic light slides' briefings there was a figure the scientists said we needed to reach before lifting the restrictions but this then suddenly disappeared. Not long after we had travel lifted and the getaways to European destinations began. Did more people travel overseas in these higher affected areas? Then the eat out got going and finally schools and colleges returned. Possible more immunity in London currently but still millions of people yet to be infected. I've no doubt cases will continue rising there.

Cases in my town in Greater Manchester are quite bad at the moment, I suspect due to tougher restrictions recently in neighbouring towns meant that people were travelling to our town to socialise, we are also well placed for commuting into Manchester and Liverpool, many students in our town choose universities in those cities so they can live at home and save on halls costs but I imagine they were still mixing socially with other students before unis went online only. I suspect less people can work from home due to the nature of their jobs. There is also possibly a bit of complacency/restrictions fatigue, and whilst we didn’t really have it that bad here back in March compared to other areas the hospital was still overrun with cases and built a temporary unit on the car park.

I know a lot of people in the commuter belt that believe they had it in Jan, Feb, or March but obviously weren't tested. So it's possible.

However I think there are other factors, like:

• More people work in office jobs meaning they can work from home
• Less multigenerational or over crowded houses. Everyone I know who's tested positivity as passed it onto their whole household. So more people in the household the more cases.
• We've been in lockdown for less time, so people haven't grown tired and weary of the guidance.

@timeforanewstart

Does anybody know how many people the ONS tested for antibodies and how they decided to test people If only a few thousand i can't see how tHat would give you accurate figures surely with a country of over 60 million you would have to test maybe 500000 or so ?? Also did they test people who think they may of had it I know of one family member who was asked to take part i ln an antibody test , if these test are good and accurate should be testing hundreds of thousands to see - maybe they did , where can you fins out

This info is all in the weekly surveillance reports available here:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Antibody testing info starts on page 41 of this week's report (week 40). I think the next one is due out today.

Each week they pick two different regions and do 1000 random tests in each place from blood donations. They also include samples from routine blood tests.

The more we ignore demographics because it doesn't fit our mental picture, the more we are wasting time.

Lockdown will never work. Ever. This is all bullshit.

Areas with more retired people (i.e. southwest) = fewer cases because older people are more likely to shield and aren't financially drawn out of their homes for work.

Areas with more single adults/young couples (i.e. London and London commuter belt) = don't have kids to expose them to the virus, or have fewer kids in general, can easily work from home because it's already been the culture to take your work with you in "hot desking"

Areas with more families/larger families, less likely to have long commutes because they are local tradespeople/keyworkers running the economy (i.e. Northwest) = Tradespeople have to go in to other people's homes to work. These people probably have more than 1 child. The schools are driving up cases, especially the teens/young adults who live at home.

Of course that doesn't cover everyone everywhere but when there is more of a certain demographic, it means there will be more cases. That's why I assume there will be a change in education, and uni students will switch to online permanently with the exception of commuting from home for practical things/labs maybe 1-2 times a week. Teens will probably be the same.

That's why I assume there will be a change in education, and uni students will switch to online permanently with the exception of commuting from home for practical things/labs maybe 1-2 times a week

This will not happen permanently, thank god.

@sashagabadon

But how does this fit with the argument that the lockdown was too late? This has been the cry from the lockdown enthusiasts. Now they seem to be saying lockdown was too early for the north?! I have always thought lockdown was a week late for London but about right for rest of uk. Those in north would have been furious back in March if only London had locked down as people were practically begging for it Piers Morgan lost his mind on Twitter. Either lockdown was too late ( the generally accepted answer for most members of the summer) or it was too early ( the new answer from some) but it can’t be both. I remember Whitty et all were suggesting a June lockdown back early March but changed his tune after the Ferguson prediction. Whitty was right though, you can only lockdown hard once and it is all about the timing - so was it too soon?! I also don’t think London is at herd immunity yet but obviously has some immunity which is helping slow the virus somewhat. My Trust had 23% antibodies plus 500 or so staff were on the vaccine trial so that will help too. I just think it is different people catching the virus this time, so students rather than care home elderly.

Sasha good point. I remember raising his point about timing on here and people saying it was too late. I’m glad Whitty was right.

@Janevaljane

I think that by the time there is an effective vaccine, it will become so engrained that it will be permanent. The first 3-4 vaccines will probably not work well enough or work at all, so we're looking at years of this.

I only skimmed the first page but a common theme is grouping the South as London. This isn't the case and please stop saying so.

The area i live in has had low cases throughout. I've no idea why as it is a big city in the south west. Cases are rising now (as with everywhere) but still fairly low.

I hate the North South divide. There are lots of areas at play.