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Covid

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Has the South got more herd immunity after the last wave?

126 replies

Marcellemouse · 08/10/2020 19:32

Given that we're now seeing how common it is to be asymptomatic, could it be that many more people in the South had CV prior to the first wave than we realised? I believe their numbers of cases were higher back in March but maybe much higher.

OP posts:
HelloMissus · 09/10/2020 08:41

I dunno.
Each time I go into London I’m struck by the deserted commuter car parks and trains.
I haven’t had one f2f meeting since March.

nettie434 · 09/10/2020 09:00

Some London boroughs have very similar rates to those in parts of the north. Rates very a lot within them. The Mayor would like to see stricter measures. I do agree that London was affected much sooner (especially because it was such a hub for air travel pre March) but I think even the biggest estimates for the numbers affected are not at the levels enough to achieve herd immunity.

I suspect more people working from home in London could be a factor. I am still wfh and the contacts that I had pre March (fellow commuters, station and shop staff, colleagues, staff and customers in cafes, restaurants, theatres) have reduced drastically.

Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow · 09/10/2020 09:02

I seems likely it was in London for weeks prior to March

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:12

It will be a bit of everything.
My own anecdata:
When I lived in London I had no family or old friends to visit. When we socialised we only really "mixed" in public places. I would have probably have caught stuff on the bus, train or tube but not in my best mates living room iyswim.

Waspnest · 09/10/2020 09:14

I have a friend living in West Cumbria and she thinks that the early high levels of infection were mainly due to Sellafield. The jobs there are well paid (she knows of a few families who went skiing in Italy over the Feb half term) and there is a fair bit of to-ing and fro-ing between Sellafield and Warrington which is apparently a nuclear hub in the UK.

Personally I think it's hard to tell what is going on and why in different areas of the country because every area has its own individual circumstances (e.g. Sellafield or a meat processing factory or a fruit picking farm where the workers live in close contact) which can skew numbers.

movingonup20 · 09/10/2020 09:14

Possibly but doesn't explain the sw, we've been low both times. No local cases according to the local rag.

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:16

Quiet areas, low population density.

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:17

If your biggest crowd is on a beach getting sun rather than on evenings milling in and out of stuffy pubs you have an advantage in suppressing Corona.

Fizbosshoes · 09/10/2020 09:17

I'm probably being optimistically dumb here but would people have tested for antibodies unless they thought they had had it?
The recent uni outbreak where nearly 90% of cases were asymptomatic could mean lots of people might have had it without realising.....but would they have taken an antibody test to find out? Or were antibody tests done on a random sample of people? (Friends of mine did if they lived with someone who had had it)

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:18

There has been random testing.

dhisreadingmypostsagain · 09/10/2020 09:20

Interesting theory, for us in Hampshire in our immediate group so many people were sick in December, January with coughs, weird taste sensations, UTI, check infections, sickness.

Also a huge number of schools in our direct area went on ski trips to Italy, Austria, France. Most schools in a 30 mile radius had a year group out for a week. Including us, and our son came home sick, vomiting, temperature and was sick for a week as were 4 of his friends.

Most parents of those children are commuting to london, both working so both spreading the virus.

So I do think there are regional variations that can be explained by global movement, social interactions and so many other factors.

Witchend · 09/10/2020 09:21

The difference is that in the south there are more wealthy people. In the north most people are from the working class, we are post industrial. There are more "working class" in the north than in the south. Everyone is working class up here

Our houses are smaller and more of us live in them. The council houses built here after the war were based on the old terraced mill and mine workers housing, a lot of that old terraced housing still exists too, both types of housing are tiny.

We have no choice but to live in them, large family or not. Yes there might be some big semi detached houses in desirable places like Stockport or Harrogate but they are far from the norm and way out of most peoples price bracket

Really? Talk about generalisation. You're all working class are you?

That's odd, because I was brought up in an old mill village (so plenty of genuine old mill houses) in the north (neither Stockport or Harrogate or near them either) and there was definitely middle class areas, and many nice detached 4+ bed houses. They were as much the norm as the mill houses.

As I said, my family is in various places up north and I'm south-east. I have friends who stayed up north, and friends down here. There is little difference is size of families, and if anything the northern families have bigger houses, but not by a lot until you go into London.

There is poverty here, there is poverty there. There are big houses here, there are big houses there. And there are plenty of people who would call themselves middle class "up north", even some upper class.

It's not a competition.

And

Waspnest · 09/10/2020 09:30

Quiet areas, low population density.

Plus if you live in a rural area you probably don't use much public transport (because there isn't any!) and tourists are likely to travel by car.

The thing is, if it's true that most transmission in within the home (and I think it probably is true just because I would imagine that all SD/mask wearing goes out the window when indoors with friends/family plus you're in close proximity for more than 15 mins) then rural tourist areas would be expected to have lower infection levels because interaction between the residents and tourists would be less and probably more protected.

Fizbosshoes · 09/10/2020 09:33

I think Grenfell tower illustrated that you can have a mix of poverty and immense wealth in a very small geographical area. I imagine this is the case everywhere. (Not neccessarily high rise tower blocks but different housing type and economic demographic living side by side)

Bikingbear · 09/10/2020 09:33

I think it might be a combination of factors.
The SW mainly office workers WfH. Possibly the weather is playing a part too in the weather has changed in the north (the last few weeks have been cold and wet) luring people indoors.

I think their might also be an element of lockdown fatigue, people are fed up, the rules don't make sense.
Covid is incredibly intelligent it can now tell the time; knows the difference between a private house and place with a till and it can even tell if your cold is pure or tainted with vodka. WTAF?
There is also bound to be an element of people on a budget don't have money to spend going to meet family or friends in a location with a till therefore isolating them further, so they give up and meet in a house. More people in the north are on lower incomes than in the south which might also play a part.

Bikingbear · 09/10/2020 09:34

Typo Coke is pure not cold😬

reesewithoutaspoon · 09/10/2020 09:35

Uni and school return is probably responsible for the massive increase in cases. You basically have a mass gathering everyday.
Liverpool manchester sheffield Leeds are all University cities with massive student populations, it was inevitable.

Tangledtresses · 09/10/2020 09:37

Small town in Home Counties here!
Loads of people all had it after Feb half term... no testing then! Few people I know have on going symptoms and our kids all go to school together.

Loads of kids off school up to lock down and a few deaths all in care homes.

So how we haven't had it I don't know!

But we'll never I know because we weren't tested.

Not one single positive test in any of the 6 schools since we've been back.

cathyandclare · 09/10/2020 09:39

Certainly looking at the maps and the figures released by some of the unis students are accounting for high proportions of the cases in Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle and Leeds. They are testing very widely in student areas, so lots of asymptomatic spread is being picked up.

timeforanewstart · 09/10/2020 09:42

That wouldn't explain sw though generally cases were lower here on march and still lowish in places , hopefully that doesn't mean we still have it to come
But with the massive increase in tourists ( and this year it was busy)
We didn't see i don't believe a massive huge jump
I think there is just so much we don't know about this virus yet and i really hope it can't be caught again as that to means we will struggle to ever get out of it and would need yearly vaccines , surely

Tangledtresses · 09/10/2020 09:42

@dhisreadingmypostsagain

Interesting theory, for us in Hampshire in our immediate group so many people were sick in December, January with coughs, weird taste sensations, UTI, check infections, sickness.

Also a huge number of schools in our direct area went on ski trips to Italy, Austria, France. Most schools in a 30 mile radius had a year group out for a week. Including us, and our son came home sick, vomiting, temperature and was sick for a week as were 4 of his friends.

Most parents of those children are commuting to london, both working so both spreading the virus.

So I do think there are regional variations that can be explained by global movement, social interactions and so many other factors.

Yes same here! Our whole town went skiing in Feb half term as did the local secondary school.... we were all ill sick off school etc from December to March

My doctor sent me for a chest x ray in may as I had lingering symptoms from January!
Kids all had rashes and aches pains for most of March, but they weren't symptoms then

Waspnest · 09/10/2020 09:43

Uni and school return is probably responsible for the massive increase in cases. You basically have a mass gathering everyday.

Uni return, yes I agree, schools I'm not so sure. DD's school are being very strict about the rules (they even have the windows and doors open and the kids are sat in their coats all day) and I haven't heard about any closures or outbreaks in local schools.

SRS29 · 09/10/2020 09:44

@ScaramoucheFandango

If your biggest crowd is on a beach getting sun rather than on evenings milling in and out of stuffy pubs you have an advantage in suppressing Corona.
This - I live on the South Coast a mile from the UK's most densely populated city, and the 13th most densely populated city in Europe yet our Covid rates are still very low compared to the average and the North. You would expect the opposite given the number of people packed into the city but I think the beaches must counter the effect even though I have seen very little evidence of any social distancing on the beach with groups of 20+ a regular sight BBQ'ing etc.
timeforanewstart · 09/10/2020 09:45

I can't see how they can know how many people have it and have antibodies , they have have tested not many
Back in march not many tests were taking place and if 80% are asymptomatic they would never know they had it , surely of you add 80% on to the known cases you get higher?
Yes we have no idea if having it makes you immune yet or if so for how long
Still a lot of guesswork going on if you ask me

MarshaBradyo · 09/10/2020 09:46

London cases are rising but there may be a bit of slowing due to first wave. Iirc NHS has 20 to 30%? Antibodies and this will slow things in hospital too.