Has the South got more herd immunity after the last wave?

[Marcellemouse]

Given that we're now seeing how common it is to be asymptomatic, could it be that many more people in the South had CV prior to the first wave than we realised? I believe their numbers of cases were higher back in March but maybe much higher.

Maybe. But I have to say Sheffield was bad in March and it's bad again now. Pretty sure there'll be another surge down south before too long.

@LangClegsInSpace
Saying large house on average wage is not a bad thing. Imagine 2 workers on £25k each, so £50k. Allowing for a mortgage of 4.5x annual income, that is £225000, plus the deposit means they can more easily afford a house and start a family.

People in the north have large houses and lots of kids and cars?

Have you ever actually been to that nebulous, homogenous “north”?

That’s really made me laugh, pause, then laugh some more.

I thought Cumbria was really badly hit in March?

@oldmapie

I thought Cumbria was really badly hit in March?

Only Barrow, and there were specific reasons why. I think it was a bit later than March - someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not interested in your theoretical workings out of what size home people can afford, either in London or in The North™. That's not how people live. No urban area can exist without a fuckton of poor people doing the shitjobs and living in substandard overcrowded accommodation because they're on shitwages.

My London borough has rising cases-still hard to get tested as most went to the covid hotspots. Apparently some of the big hospitals have run out of tests down here and are advising patients to find their own if they want to have their operations!

But I have to say Sheffield was bad in March and it's bad again now

Yes it was! It overtook London for numbers a few times back then and not even by per capita!

I read everything I can get my hands on about Covid19 and I haven't the foggiest idea what's going on. Also, I am someone who was raised in the north and now lives in the south and I can't see how it is possible to make any generalisations at all. There are areas of poverty in the south, and there are huge houses in the north.

What I can say is that most of the professional/managerial people I know in the commuter towns around London have not returned to their offices since lockdown in March. I ventured into London once a few weeks ago, and it was if the apocalypse had already happened. Travelling in an almost empty train and then up an escalator on my lonesome in an area that is normally packed solid was a surreal experience.

Also, I am keeping an eye on the numbers around my area and the numbers are growing at an alarming rate. Best not to rush into thinking we might be lucky enough to be living in an area where we have already been through the worst of it. I suspect we haven't - but hope beats eternal.

I'm not trying to make negative comments about the north,

I know you're not

just going by what I've seen since I've lived in both areas. I actually much prefer the north, but it's just honest to say that I've seen far more families afford a 4 bed in the north,

The difference I think is that people in the north have a much higher numbers of working class. So it evens it out

while people down south choose to not have kids because they know their flat is too small, or they have try to squeeze 1-2 kids in a box room or something. Not saying everyone of course, but the north generally has a better quality of life from what I have seen for people who want 2-4 kids. It is very common for people in London to opt out of having children, or they just put all their time/money towards

I think this is true of people in Leeds and Manchester though. They are kind of like the Londons of the north. Seen as big shiny groovy fashionable metropolis places, where professional couples live.

It's the other urban parts of Grt Man and West Yorks ect that I think are really more "northern" in a traditional sense. Poorer to be blunt about it

I think it’s something to do with the number of people who are working from home.

I doubt it. Nothing in the antibody testing suggests large portions of the south had it. Places in both the north and south that had higher levels earlier in the year now have high levels again and places that weren’t hit still have low levels.

I’d imagine it’s environmental factors + encouraging huge numbers of the largest affected age to move across the country that has had the biggest affect. Andd I think the government have already suggested that they ended lockdown in the north too early.

The South must have a very useful level of herd immunity, possibly enough to avoid a real second wave altogether. All other explanations I've heard for the difference seem remarkably tenuous.

@Pixxie7

I think it’s something to do with the number of people who are working from home.

That's probably the most realistic answer to what is actually going on.

@Jrobhatch29

Seems a plausible explanation to me. However someone will be along in a minute to say its because we are thick in the North and can't follow rules.

No not at all arrogant assoles I live near London and it was rife back in Feb March ..... April around 20 people I know had it in work ..... hopefully it is herd immunity

@Polkadotties

I believe so. I’m in Essex and I know of quite a few people who believe they had it before it was publicised. My Dad was really ill in December, GP diagnosed a nasty virus. I have friends who were ill in February and believe they had Covid. I appreciate they could have just had another virus, but it does make you wonder.

Me too I am in Essex.

I don't think so. The numbers are rising in London.

What is with the chip?

The "northern powerhouse" inniative is a bunch of large new build houses and even the areas where a store has been promised, some of the council's have decided to put houses instead. As shocking as it is, people in the south generally don't make enough to cover the difference in the cost of living from the north to the south. So it's smaller homes down south for your average keyworker, people who are nurses, teachers, police, etc. This isn't an insult and yes, there are areas of poverty in both areas of North and South so that does not explain the difference but generally the people up north have greater ability to have more children if they choose to. The population in London is more transient and it is younger, less likely to have children. Young adults just starting out and people who move internationally (usually young and childless) move to London. It's just how it is because people who think about the UK abroad generally set their sights on London.

This isn't an insult and yes, there are areas of poverty in both areas of North and South so that does not explain the difference but generally the people up north have greater ability to have more children if they choose to.

The difference is that in the south there are more wealthy people. In the north most people are from the working class, we are post industrial. There are more "working class" in the north than in the south. Everyone is working class up here

Our houses are smaller and more of us live in them. The council houses built here after the war were based on the old terraced mill and mine workers housing, a lot of that old terraced housing still exists too, both types of housing are tiny.

We have no choice but to live in them, large family or not. Yes there might be some big semi detached houses in desirable places like Stockport or Harrogate but they are far from the norm and way out of most peoples price bracket

The "northern powerhouse" inniative is a bunch of large new build houses and even the areas where a store has been promised, some of the council's have decided to put houses instead.

Do you mean the Northern Gateway? That’s not what the northern powerhouse is at all.

But numbers in the south east are rising again. Our rate (just outside of London) has gone from 14 cases per 100k to 75 per 100k in 2-3 weeks. I've been monitoring some London rates for family, they are worse than ours.

@JeanClaudeVanDammit

There's a new build site I would drive by that used a "Northern Powerhouse" billboard. A lot of the investment has gone in to housing, and there are so many new build estates, compared to what I've seen in SE London/Essex. Maybe they just labeled it that way, but it's what I saw up north. Not only that but new housing tends to include flooring/kitchens but this was an additional thing that had to be paid down south for the same kind of Taylor Wimpeys, but that may have changed now.

Madrid and Paris would say that this isn’t so.

Yep I think so. I don't live in London but I get so annoyed when people.suggest there's some kind of weird obsession with London, there isn't but the population of London is just so big. It's bigger than the population of the whole country of Scotland. If we look at the infections in London in march and accept the number of untested cases is roughly 90% we therefore know that loads and loads of Londeners have already had this and probably have immunity at least in the short term.

There are 7million londoners. Do we honestly believe they are all the same?

Cumbria had a bit hit early on. There was more testing going on but Ulverston had the highest number of deaths at one point. Ulverston schools were hit much worse than Barrow in March (but no testing) and Barrow is suffering now.
Carlisle was badly hit in March and is now.