Hospital admissions nearly as high as just before lockdown

[frozendaisy]

Parking death rates as treatment is improving (thank you medics for continuing your research whilst the politicians spout out slogans).

But I have a gut feeling that at some point they will close schools again or go part time.

Our local cases have doubled in a week.

Just looking at the data particularly in Europe, this is a second wave now, the winter wave.

It is possible that in some areas there are a lot of people in hospital with covid19, who are not being affected by it in a way which would cause hospitalization, they just happen to have it while being in hospital for another reason.

Primary age community spread is very stable.

My headteacher shared this with us from the NAHT.

It's the staff catching Covid and becoming ill which affects schools.

That table shows test positivity rate, not the amount of positive cases, which is rising. Children rarely show symptoms and are rarely tested. There is very little information on spread in children and no-one is actually looking to find it out.

There are 2 Covid patients in a very large hospital in London so I don't know where you are getting your info from but it's WRONG

That graph is only to about 24th September, ie only just over 3 weeks since schools open, so you wouldn't expect to see much rise by then
as there hasn't been that much chance to pass it on and produce symptoms.
You can see a creeping rising in percentage positive tests in that time too..

The case numbers for now can't be compared to March, as we simply weren't testing many people at all in March/April. I suspect number of cases in March was way in excess of now, if we'd been able to test in the numbers we currently are doing

The rate of infection is based on percent of those tested. So 10% of 100 and 10% of 10,000 is still 10%. Its that percent that is the concern, no matter how many are tested. If it rises then the covid is spreading faster

The case numbers BECAME much higher in March. The thing is, it's not so much the actual numbers but the rate at which they are increasing. In March the numbers went from dozens dying to ten thousand dying in a just matter of a couple of weeks. This is exponential growth.

The numbers dying now, daily, are at about the same rate as the week before lockdown. I'm not saying we are heading for another March situation ATM but it is worrying how quickly the infection rate is growing in places like Manchester and Sheffield. They have tripled in a week

So should we have a full country lockdown or just where hospital admissions are high? Why should the SE be locked down when are Hospital admission numbers at the moment are low

The daily admissions figures are not just for people admitted for COVID. Anyone with COVID, including those who catch it in hospital is counted. From the data dashboard:

England data include people admitted to hospital who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, and those who tested positive in hospital after admission. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are reported as being admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis. Admissions to all NHS acute hospitals and mental health and learning disability trusts, as well as independent service providers commissioned by the NHS are included.

My son has been taken into hospital overnight with covid 19. He's started on suitable antibiotics and steroids and oxygen . Hopefully he will be home later today . He's 45 , not a child .

@Ken1976 sorry to hear about your son, I hope he makes a speedy recovery, if you don’t mind me asking are from the north or south of the uk?

We are in second surge now in Scotland

Spent today cancelling elective surgery due to no beds at major hospitals

@Alex50

So should we have a full country lockdown or just where hospital admissions are high? Why should the SE be locked down when are Hospital admission numbers at the moment are low

I was surprised today to see quite how high the infection rates in parts of the SE are. I am in an area I thought was very low - and it was, the infection rate was about 17 per 100K. It is now 47 and we have no universities. OK, that's nothing like eg Sefton (Liverpool) which is posting 350, but it's not low. I don't know what hospital admissions are like though.

Where I am it’s 25, this is the top watch list at the moment

Cases
Area

New Cases
on 02/10

New Cases
in 7 Days*

New Cases
in 7 Days* per
100K of pop

Manchester 439 3080 557
Leeds 499 2692 339
Liverpool 408 2605 523
Sheffield 421 1835 314
Birmingham 272 1718 150
Bradford 222 1428 265
Nottingham 398 1394 419
Newcastle upon Tyne 206 1340 443
Sefton 157 912 330
County Durham 173 893 168
Knowsley 139 785 520
Kirklees 126 758 172
Sunderland 140 757 273
Salford 118 755 292
Wigan 133 744 226

• 26 Sep - 02 Oct.

There should be in columns so Manchester should be new cases on the 2.10.20, 437, new cases in 7 days 3080, new cases per100k over 7 days 557

Where I am it’s 25 per 100,000

@Remmy123

There are 2 Covid patients in a very large hospital in London so I don't know where you are getting your info from but it's WRONG

Because if it’s not happening in London then it’s not happening?

There are over 1,000 in hospital in the NW with COVID and 120 in ICU. That is the same as at the end of March and about 1/3 of the peak

And there are actually 300 in hospital and 50 in ICU in London too by the way

There are over 8 million people London though, you would think the numbers would be a lot higher.

There are only about 1,000 positive cases a day in London, more like 4,000 a day in the North West (hence why all the local restrictions in place ans about to be tightened even more!)

3 wards have been changed to what they call red wards at our local hospital . In a hospital that only has 18 wards that’s a big impact. 1 theatre has been closed so far to make ICU bigger . A month ago there were 3 patients in ICU and it was the covid that put them there , 1 of them had been in since March but had alternated between the ward and the unit many times due to deteriorating then rallying many times. At the last count there were 12 patients in there due to covid , requiring mechanical breathing support and/or drug support due to other organs failing . So yes in some places it is on the increase . A&E there is busier than ever because no one can an appointment with their GP .

@backmadeofglass which hospital is this, whereabouts in the country?

The north

% of bed occupation due to covid on 1 October in England was 1.8 %

My local hospital are preparing to reopen dedicated covid wards if needed, but our admissions certainly aren't higher (mum works there)
Also I'm not sure what hospitals are testing outpatients for covid, my dd has 3 appointments last week and our temperatures weren't even taken let alone a test.

That’s misleadingly low. You can’t use every ward for COVID. Northwest is currently at about 40% of where it was at the peak.

agree with OP and Sweetnhappy1.

cases are up, hospital admissions are up, numbers in ICU are up, deaths are up (despite the advances that have been made in treatment).

People seem to want to deflect these concerns - are they in hospital with or because of covid, is it just in the North etc but the reality is, it's increasing everywhere and if we don't get a grip now it's going to become a massive problem.

Even Boris Johnson (no fan here) knows this. He's the most populist prime minister I have ever known and if he is recognising it and putting in unpopular measures, you can be assured they are needed (plus more, I would argue, but that's for another thread I guess).

We should be in a better positon than we were in March, with more awareness, better social distancing, widespread mask use, better (although still not enough) testing, better treatments developed etc. But cases where I am have risen from less than 15 per 100,000 when DS went back to school to 579 per 100,000 today. So that's in just over a month. Hospitals are starting to feel the strain already and it's only October. Anyone who is feeling not that worried because cases are low by you, look at what has happened in the North West and know there is no room for complacency.

It's a massive worry and we need to take it seriously, we need to do everything we can to keep the cases low, if they carry on at this rate of growth the NHS won't be able to cope, and people needing other treatments won't be able to get them (and won't be safe getting them either).

OK. How about this? We, the little people (as opposed to people like government advisors and SNP MPs) are doing everything we can reasonably be expected to do without absolutely trashing society.

The powers that be knew we would be faced with this in the autumn. Why weren't hospitals better prepared? The country had 6 months to prepare.

And if this is going to be a long term thing, they will NEED to be prepared every autumn because we sure as hell can't keep shutting everything.