The average age of people who die of Covid is apparently older than British life expectancy. This can't be true can it?

[Treesofwood]

I've tried to find data rather than just a tweet and I can't. I did find something about the median age of deaths in France being 81. This can't be true either, surely? Median being the middle number if they were all lined up.
I knew it disproportionately impacted older people obviously, but surprised by this data.

If we did go down the herd immunity route , how long would it take to achieve that in the UK's population ?

Just over 530k people have tested positive so far. I appreciate the number of people who may have had it will be probably be substantially higher, given there was very little community testing in the initial phase of the pandemic. Even if you double or quadruple the figures it still doesn't sound like anywhere near enough to achieve herd immunity ?

The other issue with herd immunity is how long will it last ?

No surprise to me. Makes you wonder if most of the governments decisions have been sensible.

Dying people are not allowed to be visited by their relatives

This is so cruel, you’d think only an authoritarian regime would do it.

@frumpety there is no choice as to whether we go down the herd immunity route. It will happen whether we like it or not - either through infection or vaccine or likely in the end both.

And to those who say that we don’t know about re-infection etc or whether herd immunity will work - well that is the same as with a vaccine. If it doesn’t work when infected it’s won’t work with a vaccine. The likelihood is that it will be like the flu and protect you for some time so you are less likely to catch it again.

The problem is, whether you suppress the virus, or let it rip, the outcome sucks (unless you dealt with it quickly and efficiently, and that ship has sailed).

People have seen the "Suppress" option. They have a good idea of its negative effects. They don't like them, so they want the other option.

We have not seen the results of "let it rip". People cannot imagine it could possibly be worse than lockdown. They see low deaths, they wonder why we are bothering with such an unwarranted response.

Sadly, I think at this point, it would take actually seeing consequences that were worse than anything we have seen this far to make people realise that the other option could be even less desirable. And the problem is, as with climate change, at the point at which we stop, we are already tied in to further and greater negative effects.

The other effects would probably at first be NHS related: cancelled operations, people unable to get hospital beds for their sick relatives (this happens most winters, so would be beyond anything with have experienced this year), problems with body disposal, casualties and mental health problems in health care staff - I think if we clap for them this time around, they will quite rightly punch us in the face.

In addition, we may see supply chain disruptions as the virus and staff absence peaks in awful harmony with the effects of Brexit.

It is possible that due to some unforeseen influence the virus somehow stops replicating in its usual manner. However, relying on this at this point would be absolutely a matter of faith and hope. Extrapolation of what we currently see into the future is never fully reliable and future projections can always be wrong, but it's not sensible to rely on being pleasantly surprised by a pandemic.

No, I'm not loving this. There is nothing to love. There are no good options, only the least worst option. And there is no definitive way of knowing what that is. Personally, I have a secure job. It's a secure job that places me pretty much exactly 2m away from confirmed Covid cases with no PPE for several hours, talking directly at me, but hey, I'm one of the lucky ones, eh?

@Bool sorry if I wasn't clear , I meant how long would herd immunity take to achieve if restrictions were lifted and exponential growth was unchecked ?

Also, I hate it when posters imply that ‘experts’ have a unified voice on this topic. They absolutely do not. Many have advocated for herd immunity strategy from the beginning (like in Sweden) while others have come to recognise that it’s probably the only way to go unless an effective vaccine comes out.

Here are experts who believe herd immunity is the best option: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8810977/Coronavirus-Anti-lockdown-petition-calling-herd-immunity-reaches-30-000-signatures.html

We have not seen the results of "let it rip". People cannot imagine it could possibly be worse than lockdown

Japan pursued a ‘strategy’ very close to that. Of course, they aren’t obese, but do have the world’s oldest population ... it turned out pretty well for them.

Looking at Japan as a model is cherry picking at its finest.

There’s actually a fairly robust theory that Neanderthal genes make people more predisposed to severe cases. I wonder if this explains worse results in Europe and places colonised bet Europeans?

Looking at Japan as a model is cherry picking at its finest

And why is that? It’s true that they didn’t do much at all in mitigation

Well the BMJ don't think Japan got it right. No idea how to link report though. Yes they fared better than Australia but their R rate is above 1 now.

doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3221

This may work.

Japan pursued a ‘strategy’ very close to that. Of course, they aren’t obese, but do have the world’s oldest population ... it turned out pretty well for them
The majority wear masks and have done since SARS.
Every 2nd person is exempt or just refuses here.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

I agree with your logical post but fear it will get shouted down.

The majority wear masks and have done since SARS. Every 2nd person is exempt or just refuses here

Masks only reduce risks. But WFH is not really supported in Japanese workplaces and the trains are still stuffed. Also, it’s nigh impossible to socially distance in urban areas (London doesn’t compare)

Is there a half way house? Not letting it “rip” not aiming to eliminate?

Students in halls of residence - clearly not a great idea. Masks/distancing/things open/working track and trace and we limp on until March?

I live in Scotland and everyone is wearing masks. I hardly see anyone who isn’t (and wouldn’t dream of asking them why).

Mumsnet is very scathing about mask refuseniks. Where do they all live?

[quote MangoFeverDream]Also, I hate it when posters imply that ‘experts’ have a unified voice on this topic. They absolutely do not. Many have advocated for herd immunity strategy from the beginning (like in Sweden) while others have come to recognise that it’s probably the only way to go unless an effective vaccine comes out.

Here are experts who believe herd immunity is the best option: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8810977/Coronavirus-Anti-lockdown-petition-calling-herd-immunity-reaches-30-000-signatures.html[/quote]
I wish herd immunity worked with native Americans. But instead this happened:

I am waiting for vaccines or something better

Students in halls of residence - clearly not a great idea. Masks/distancing/things open/working track and trace and we limp on until March?

Why isn’t this a good idea? Out of 70,000 Covid+ cases on US campuses, there’s been only 3 hospitalisations and 0 deaths. As long as they don’t leave the campus to visit family, it sounds like a good strategy to me.

I wish herd immunity worked with native Americans

Smallpox is much deadlier than COVID. It killed at least a third of those infected. Not the same.

No one is suggesting herd immunity for something like the plague 🙄

@MangoFeverDream

I wish herd immunity worked with native Americans

Smallpox is much deadlier than COVID. It killed at least a third of those infected. Not the same.

No one is suggesting herd immunity for something like the plague 🙄

It was not over small pox, it was other things too.

Spanish Flu took 18 months. This situation could take 18 years if no vaccine/treatment. Rock & a hard place.

Being honest if it was a straight choice, I’d go for the shorter option as a couple of decades just ‘existing’ doesn’t really appeal.

There’s actually a fairly robust theory that Neanderthal genes make people more predisposed to severe cases. I wonder if this explains worse results in Europe and places colonised bet Europeans

But people of African heritage, who have no Neanderthal "genes", are more at risk if they get covid. So not sure how your post can be true

It was not over small pox, it was other things too

Smallpox is considered the worst of the diseases brought over and is recorded as having a uniquely destructive effect on the natives.

You simply cannot compare smallpox to COVID. It’s almost insulting.