The average age of people who die of Covid is apparently older than British life expectancy. This can't be true can it?

[Treesofwood]

I've tried to find data rather than just a tweet and I can't. I did find something about the median age of deaths in France being 81. This can't be true either, surely? Median being the middle number if they were all lined up.
I knew it disproportionately impacted older people obviously, but surprised by this data.

@Pyewhacket

I worked in Critical Care during the worst of it. The average age on our unit were early - mid fifties. The oldest was mid sixties, the youngest was 17. There were patients on other wards, in side rooms. They were probably older.

Which is the crux of it - whilst those who are dying are, predominantly, over 70, that doesn't stop many other younger people being very ill.

The England dashboard also shows that some 120k people have been admitted to hospital with Covid; if we assume some 5m people in England have had it (based on Serology) that's 2.4%; and there are many others who suffered badly but didn't go to hospital.

I'm not going to enter a debate about lockdown vs not, but it is important to remember in any such discussion that we are not just talking, at this point in the pandemic, about deaths. We have to take into consideration the wider impact that catching Covid can have on people of all ages.

The way life expectancy change with age is quite fascinating. Whilst it is totally logical if one thinks about it, I have to admit to have a visceral refection of my 87 year old mother in law having a higher life expectancy than I do

According to the office of national statistics online calculator the average life expectancy for an 80 year old is 89

Life expectancy is an average of everyone who dies of any cause, be it a childhood illness, suicide, childbirth etc. Covid is an illness that predominantly kills older and disabled people, so I don't think it should be surprising that the average age of Covid deaths is higher.

There are supposed to be some calcs that show average person lost 12 years of life.

But my suspicion is that 80% of the deceased persons lost < 2 years of life. And maybe 50% lost < 1 year of life. So very skewed data by a small number of relatively young deaths.

I seem to recall that my nearest acute centre, > 50% of the deaths were in persons age 80+.

@HermioneWeasley

Makes perfect sense - we’ve had three mild winters and an e chess elderly population as a result. There’s been less than 400 people die under 65 with no underlying health condition

And? There are millions of people in the UK under 65 wih underlying conditions.

Obviously we'd have many more deaths without any preventative measures. Loads of under 65s have been hospitalised. Lucky for them the hospital beds were free.

Meanwhile, The telegraph had an article today.
Experts are increasingly concerned about Long Covid. They think it's a bigger long-term concern than the deaths. It seems to be affecting younger people (working age).

Separately there's the economy.

We all know that the countries who've taken effective measures to contain Covid have better functioning healthier economies than us.

@rorosemary

Does that mean that their lives don't matter? Would you say the same about people if it meant discriminating because of their colour or religion? How old should people die then?

Personally I think that a lot of younger, vulnerable people (like me) shielded succesfully, whereas older people still get infected by their carers etc.

Of course it doesn’t mean that but it is perfectly in order to question the proportionality of the response in protecting people who have already had a good long life anyway. Of course every death is sad and people dying even a year or 2 before their time is awful for them and their families but where stopping that happening comes at the cost of destroying the economy and life chances of millions of much younger people decisions surely have to be made. It’s a shit sandwich sadly.

Not surprising in the slightest, I thought it was well known the huge majority of deaths are in very elderly people.

And no, that doesn't mean the deaths don't matter But 90+ year olds dying is hardly quite as shocking as say, 60 year olds in all honesty.

@user127819

Life expectancy is an average of everyone who dies of any cause, be it a childhood illness, suicide, childbirth etc. Covid is an illness that predominantly kills older and disabled people, so I don't think it should be surprising that the average age of Covid deaths is higher.

Not so much disabled people, as those with underlying, predominantly lifestyle-related health conditions (obesity, diabetes, dementia).

@AlecTrevelyan006

but, but, but... I keep reading on MN about loads of fit marathon runners and cyclists in their 30s with no underlying health conditions dropping like flies...

Plus, it seems nearly everyone on MN knows at least ten people who've died of Covid (despite the fact that very few people died of Covid, but died "with Covid present", a very different thing). Statistically it would be a good idea if everyone packed in MN, because it seems to be a very dangerous place to hang out. After all, the UK has over 66 million people, and just over 42,000 deaths with Covid present. Even if that latter figure misses out some deaths with Covid present, mumsnetters have to be the unluckiest bunch in the world to know so many of those who died.

@rorosemary

Does that mean that their lives don't matter? Would you say the same about people if it meant discriminating because of their colour or religion? How old should people die then?

Personally I think that a lot of younger, vulnerable people (like me) shielded succesfully, whereas older people still get infected by their carers etc.

There's always one. Who said their lives didn't matter? Nobody.

Yep @Moondust001 not to mention all the teachers in schools with “multiple teachers shielding”. Again very unlucky given shielded people were about 4% of the population.

I just can't get my head around it. What's the average age that people die of other illnesses like flu for example? Just feels like although it will obviously be with in the older age group it can't be 80 plus.
I suppose what I mean is what us your chance of dying at every age? So age 35 it's one percentage, and it must gradually increase the older you get. So although your life expectancy is 82 (and I get that for a 82 year old it's 89 or thereabouts) you must still have a chance of dying that year. Has Covid shifted that.
Thanks for the links by the way. Always like to know where the raw data it, esp when things don't make mathematical sense.

@NRatched

Not surprising in the slightest, I thought it was well known the huge majority of deaths are in very elderly people.

And no, that doesn't mean the deaths don't matter But 90+ year olds dying is hardly quite as shocking as say, 60 year olds in all honesty.

Its a curious phenomenon on MN (and on the political left in general).

If a handful of data points can be found that contradict literally millions and millions of others that point to the opposite, then no conclusions can be drawn from the dataset.

I always used to think of it as just being a bit naive, but this situation has shown how dangerous it can be.

People don't seem to understand that the things that are newsworthy (young/healthy people dying) are newsworthy predominantly because they are very unusual.

Madameblobby Two letters went out. One was just a reminder to socially distance and one was for those who are truly vulnerable. The first letter I mentioned most people didn't even read, just announced themselves as shielding. Employers were sensible to ask to see the letter, as I think many more of the first type if letters went out than the second.

@lentilsforlunch

According to the office of national statistics online calculator the average life expectancy for an 80 year old is 89

Would you utterly destroy the future of your own DC and GDC just to buy yourself an additional 9 years of life though?

Who would do that?

I would be surprised to hear if it wasn’t true!
There are 68 million of us, or thereabouts. Last decade or so approx 600,000 or so deaths a year. We have an ageing population. Most people who die are ‘old’.

I thought the "problem" isn't the deaths it's the fact that if the number of deaths increase without any control then the nhs will be overwhelmed and so we would all suffer.

I make no comment here on my personal views.

In the words of younger people, you need to educate yourself @NikeDeLaSwoosh

First, 'lifestyle' is very often not a choice. These illnesses are strongly associated with poverty.

Second the lifestyle factor is just one of several different causes. There are two main types of diabetes (and at least three or four lesser known ones too). Autoimmune diseases. Even type 2 is only sometimes caused by lifestyle. It can also be genetic. Which is a bit obvious really, considering that loads and loads of overweight people don't have it whilst quite a few diabetics are (and have always been) slim.

@Ranoutofgoodnames

I thought the "problem" isn't the deaths it's the fact that if the number of deaths increase without any control then the nhs will be overwhelmed and so we would all suffer.

I make no comment here on my personal views.

It would be difficult for a short period of time, but the current death by 1000 cuts isn't exactly a walk in the park either...

Perhaps we should stop telling people to quit smoking?

They're discouraged from smoking because 'it shortens your life'. So? It's quite clear you're seen as expendable if you live longer.

@SheepandCow

In the words of younger people, you need to educate yourself *@NikeDeLaSwoosh*

First, 'lifestyle' is very often not a choice. These illnesses are strongly associated with poverty.

Second the lifestyle factor is just one of several different causes. There are two main types of diabetes (and at least three or four lesser known ones too). Autoimmune diseases. Even type 2 is only sometimes caused by lifestyle. It can also be genetic. Which is a bit obvious really, considering that loads and loads of overweight people don't have it whilst quite a few diabetics are (and have always been) slim.

In the midst of such a terrible crisis, we don't have the luxury of wringing our hands about links between obesity and poverty.

The virus doesn't give a shit.

I think the best way of looking at this is what is the implication of lots of people requiring hospital treatment at the same time ?

Hospital treatment doesn't mean all those people require specialist ITU treatment , there might be people who only need to be in for a few days with supportive treatment, but they are in beds and if they have Covid, well you probably wouldn't want to be in the same bay as them if you need planned or emergency surgery. If the ITU beds are full with Covid patients, then any planned surgery requiring an ITU bed will have to be delayed or cancelled. The number of beds available has halved over the last 30 years, the number of patients needing them has unsuprisingly increased. Perfect storm.

Here's an idea.
We save the economy (and lives) and avoid risking a significant proportion of the younger generation suffering from disabling Long Covid.

Let's take action to contain Covid. Like @NikeDeLaSwoosh says, short term pain, long term gain.

We all know the countries who've contained Covid have healthier economies.

#ContainCovidSaveTheLongTermEconomy