Japan appear to have sorted their numbers primarily via backtracing contacts. Not what we are doing, we are catching infections then trying to get contacts after this, which is the wrong approach seemingly. All I have read today tells me this is entirely the correct approach (backtracing), regardless of whatever measures a country has in place. There is a lot of evidence that covid spread is not equal like a influenza one would be. Nowhere near. In short, flu spreads in a predictable way. Covid seems to be primarily spread by superspreader events. Many countries have lowered their numbers by looking back over contacts to find out where a positive person was infected, instead of focusing on who they might infect. There seems to be a lot of evidence that other similar pathogens spread in a similar 'random cluster here' type way. SARS did similar. Locating where these superspreader events take place, helps a lot more than tracing contacts of people after the fact. Because it is thought its quite likely (and evidence so far from this pandemic seems to back this up too) that a large majority of people don't spread, or spread to one person. Where these events can and do infect loads at a time. Its been the explanation for a load of weird things stats wise, the random jump for North Korea (brought under control again of course, but there was a totally random very quick rise that seemed odd) being one of them. And also potentially explains why some places were hit SO badly at first while others weren't. And even now, how place jump quickly from very low cases, to doubling quickly, at seemingly random stages that look odd when compared to other data. I would use Scotland as an example here. It seems unlikely to me that scotland did so well and got cases down to near non existant levels, but then everything sprialled out of control SO quickly. A superspreader event, or a couple, would explain this very well where otherwise, such random jumps look odd in comparison.
I cannot explain this well at all as it was all new to me, as had never even thought of backtracing and while I had heard about superspreaders, I did not realise quite how much there was to read/learn about them.
Anyone with a lot of spare time who has any interest
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
It makes so much sense and does answer a lot of questions I have seen regularly too. Might not be right, but sounds that way given SARS behaved the same.
This was a light in my day, someone posting that link and me spending a few hours reading it (and a lot of the studies referenced) as everything seemed bleak and no end in sight like. But this, is a gamechanger IMO and could have potential to help us SO much. More evidence is emerging about spread too that back up this superspreader thing. Genuinely I was starting to come to the conclusion its lockdown totally or 'herd immunity', neither of which I find a good idea,or feasible either. But this gave me actual hope that it might be possible to sort. If we change the way we test and trace. Given current system is shambles, changing it up somewhat cannot be much worse.