The average age of people who die of Covid is apparently older than British life expectancy. This can't be true can it?

[Treesofwood]

I've tried to find data rather than just a tweet and I can't. I did find something about the median age of deaths in France being 81. This can't be true either, surely? Median being the middle number if they were all lined up.
I knew it disproportionately impacted older people obviously, but surprised by this data.

@MangoFeverDream

Dying people are not allowed to be visited by their relatives

This is so cruel, you’d think only an authoritarian regime would do it.

Yeah because it's not cruel to tell other people their relatives have 'had their time' and should face an avoidable untimely death because someone else's wants trumps everyone else's needs.

Some might say it's cruel to tell people that they will have to visit (virtually or in person) their dying relative - who is only dying because someone else didn't want to wait an extra month to have cup of tea with their own relative. The cancer patient who is dying because the hospital beds were too full and all the staff off sick because someone else's wants were put before everyone else's needs.

The care home resident who dies completely alone with no palliative care because someone else's wants were put before everyone else's needs.

@MangoFeverDream

Japan is not the sort of society to do that. There's a lot of social pressure to be civic minded and think of others

You have a very stereotyped view of Japan. I lived there for many years, I can tell you that they are not as compliant as you believe.

Businesses like pubs and restaurants were told
to close but a lot did not comply and the government had no way to force them to shut.

They had a way to force it, they chose not to take it. And they appear to be correct in giving the choice but emphasizing awareness raising above strict lockdowns with penalties, or whatever. And tracing cluster events.

Oddly, we seemed able to do this without lockdown being legally mandated, given the majority of those I knew seemed to be putting themselves into lockdown wherever possible in march (my childs class had over half the students off before they were made to 'close), before we 'had to'. I think the fining and being told what to do thing has lost public confidence, not gained it tbh. Along with the constant mixed messages and lack of truthtelling from the government too, thats not helped public confidence one bit!

Hell, even when lockdown was lifted, it was apparently many were still chosing to isolate by how empty most shops were in the first few weeks!

Its all ifs and maybes at this stage really, but I don't doubt many areas could have been hugely improved on.

‘Hospitals were struggling back in March. If we allow this to rip through us, our whole way of life will grind to a halt. Hospitals will be over flowing. In all areas of life, people will be sick and off work. Food won’t get delivered. Essential services won’t be repaired quickly - gas, electric, water, sewage. Schools will close. Crime rates will rise when panic sets in. Rubbish won’t be collected. It will end up with military intervention.’

It wouldn’t be a bed of roses for sure. But I think some of the above is over the top. Only 10% of 770 students at Northumbria were symptomatic for instance. Lots of people are asymptomatic. So, no, outside of the obvious run on the NHS, I think we would be able to carry on & muddle through in other sections of society as indeed we did do a century ago with a virus that attacked the young working age population more, after we’d just lost a lot of them in WW1.

Harold Shipman was a doctor. Nazi fascist eugenicists were scientists. I'd rather we didn't emulate their sickening world views

What’s your point? That all 6000 are Harold Shipman’s ready to destroy society? They are actually concerned with the negative effects of the lockdown and haven’t glossed over the deaths caused by the lockdown like some have.

those who actually specialise in viruses, and those who are on the front line dealing with Covid say different to the far right conspiracy theorist Covid Deniers

Absolutely not true. Many front line doctors don’t recommend lockdown or have changed their minds: nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/amp/

There are documented writings on the medieval plague where villages sealed off from elsewhere - either to keep the virus from spreading out (if they were already infected) or to stop it coming in

So more like border closures and less like lockdowns. Within the village you were free to leave the home and do farmwork and other normal tasks.

Likewise the Spanish flu. Read up on it

If healthy young people died of COVID like they did of the Spanish flu, lockdowns may be more necessary. But it’s not. Do read up on it.

Countries who have taken effective containment measures now have freely operating societies - schools, hospitals, offices, shops, bars, pubs, restaurants, gyms, sporting and entertainment venues

Oh you mean like Sweden and Japan?

They locked down, contained it, and have now opened up

Lol so many that locked down before are having
to consider doing so again.

@MangoFeverDream

Japan is not the sort of society to do that. There's a lot of social pressure to be civic minded and think of others

You have a very stereotyped view of Japan. I lived there for many years, I can tell you that they are not as compliant as you believe.

Businesses like pubs and restaurants were told
to close but a lot did not comply and the government had no way to force them to shut.

Well I'm simply repeating what Japanese friends and ex colleagues have told me. It's their words, not mine. Considering that some currently live there (in various different cities so not just Tokyo) I trust what they say. It's also been widely reported on - in Japanese press as well as international. Then there's the Japanese medical experts. They've had a say too.

Very clearly Japan has taken containment measures - much more successful ones than us. The significant difference in deaths says it all.

Whatever other measures they may or may not have taken. One indisputable fact is that they closed their borders and there is high compliance with mask wearing. They also, as I've said before, have a very good healthcare system.

Yeah because it's not cruel to tell other people their relatives have 'had their time' and should face an avoidable untimely death because someone else's wants trumps everyone else's needs

People die of other things besides COVID you know.

The cancer patient who is dying because the hospital beds were too full and all the staff off sick because someone else's wants were put before everyone else's needs

Omg the panicked lockdown is going to cause excess cancer deaths because people did not get screened in time and did not start treatment in a timely manner. Because they were reserving beds for the pandemic (ended up being way off, btw).

Yes I agree with you. Border closures play a major role in containment. Short-term lockdowns were necessary as well - but yes once numbers were down countries like Australia, New Zealand, and the Isle of Man (Japan, South Korea, and others to a lesser extent) can now operate mostly normal lives.

Sweden? Personally I'd rather emulate their neighbours. Because, you know, they have better economies (that's what containment measures do for you) AND less deaths. Probably lower numbers of Long Covid cases too.

However if you must insist on Sweden, rather than Denmark or Norway for example. How do you propose we very very quickly (pretty much overnight) get 50% of our population into single person households? It's quite easy to socially distance when living alone. Also we need to extremely quickly get our NHS up to the standards of the excellent well funded Swedish healthcare system (higher taxes paid off). Any idea how we can achieve this immediately?

South Korea has never had a lockdown @SheepandCow.

wants were put before everyone else's needs.

I don't really think its a 'want' for people (especially the isolated) to want to socialize to some degree with family. I would genuinely class that as a need for many. Especially those in carehomes. But you are correct in saying allowing one to have their way, means someone else does not.

Its a horrific balancing act. All of it is tbh.

@MangoFeverDream
I need to make dinner. I'll check back in later. In the meantime, I suggest you speak to Matt Hancock, the majority of medical experts worldwide, the WHO, our frontline doctors and nurses and other healthcare staff (some have posted on Mumsnet about their traumatic experiences), and world governments (all continents), to let them know you know better than all of them. Perhaps they'll appreciate your expertise and in-depth medical, scientific, and economic knowledge. Which is clearly superior to theirs.

@Ecosse

South Korea has never had a lockdown *@SheepandCow*.

But they did take containment measures. Including restricted borders. And, unlike us, a very good test, track, and trace system (one that would have people here screaming about 'freedom').

SheepandCow

I’m talking to you and pushing back against your nonsense. You pretend that all ‘successful’ countries pursued the same path of lockdowns and nothing could be further from the truth.

I didn't mention Sweden as something we should aspire to. Was just saying I don't find it helpful to compare uk/japan, uk/sweden, uk/singapore, UK /Brazil given the massive differences in the situation (along with other factors too).

Writing this post just brought to mind the thread about 'ButSweden' people

@MangoFeverDream
You caught me just in time (the dinner can wait another five mins).

I'm sorry if you misinterpreted my posts.
I never claimed everywhere took exactly the same action. I referred to 'effective containment measures'. Those measures differed across various countries and you're right - not all were lockdowns (unless you include border restrictions as a lockdown) - but they all involved some form of temporary 'loss of freedom'. Not that we're ever free to do whatever we want (anywhere in the world). Narcotics being a very good example of where freedoms are restricted (rightly or wrongly). There's no absolute freedom regardless of any containment measures (or none) to contain a pandemic.

But I think some of the above is over the top. Only 10% of 770 students at Northumbria were symptomatic for instance. Lots of people are asymptomatic

Try 10% of the total population, not just 700 people. A considerable number of which would need hospital intervention of some kind. That's on top of normal hospital intervention that would be required for all other illness and accidents.

Hospitals would be overwhelmed very quickly. All other services would follow. The issue would be when food deliveries stopped being quite so regular - remember we operate a 'just in time system' which relies on lorry drivers to deliver. If 10% of them are ill....put that on top of Brexit, and a possible no-deal Brexit and all the problems that will cause. It would take a matter of weeks for society as we know it to break down totally. Probably days. If people are fed, their houses are warm and the internet works, they can put up with it albeit with some huffing and puffing. You take away the food security and our country will change over night.

Personally I'd have chosen closed borders (with proper quarantine where necessary for essential travel like imports and asylum) and a short initial lockdown.
Instead of this longer on, off, on, off, dragged out, different from your neighbours down the road because different region, on, off, blah blah semi lockdown ongoing shit show that we have.
I still favour one stricter but in the end shorter proper lockdown now (with restricted borders) - rather than fast forwarding three months and still being in such a mess.

I'd also have opted for a very good test, track, and trace system.

Then again I've long supported paying higher taxes in return for an excellent healthcare system - one that operates on a preventative more than reactive approach.

I'd much prefer to be like Australia, New Zealand, and the Isle of Man. Strict initial measures - which were worth it, because now things are mostly normal (temporary restricted international travel excepted). Schools, hospitals, shops, pubs, restaurants, bars, offices, gyms, sporting and entertainment venues operating normally. And - a plus for the anti maskers, no need for masks! (The only downside imo - but that's because I've found some brilliant masks and find them fantastic for an ugly day).

Harold Shipman was a doctor. Nazi fascist eugenicists were scientists. I'd rather we didn't emulate their sickening world views.

Meanwhile normal moral doctors (with economic foresight) - those who actually specialise in viruses, and those who are on the front line dealing with Covid say different to the far right conspiracy theorist Covid Deniers.

I'm sorry but you sound way over the top. Have you listened to the interview they gave along with the Declaration? The point they are making is to PROTECT the vulnerable, not to perform eugenics ffs! Targeted protection for a set period of time (they said 3 months) so as to allow younger people in good health to provide the reservoir of immunity. Herd immunity is not their strategy through killing grannies and sick people. and isn't eugenics the practice of selective breeding anyway?

You think they have no expertise? Despite their experience and qualifications and positions they hold? How odd.

Time and again people are too binary and uncritical to realise that people who wonder whether the benefits of lockdown are worth the costs cannot be simply labelled as "far right conspiracy theorist Covid deniers." Is there no nuance at all in your thinking?

Hospitals would be overwhelmed very quickly. All other services would follow

Well, I’ve already acknowledged the NHS would be swamped but the country would simply have to mobilise dependent on how bad things got. We’ve got an ever increasing army of unemployed to call upon. Plenty of Students. The majority of Retired people who survive. If it really got that bad, we could summon the manpower I’ve little doubt about it. Less people in inessential roles and redeployed in essential key working roles. Country would effectively be put on a war footing. IF it got that bad, we’d do it. Because there would be no alternative.

I think its important to remember that England only has about 100,000 acute and general hospital beds for a population of approx 56 million people. Before covid happened, bed occupancy levels could be over 95% in the Winter.

@rorosemary

Does that mean that their lives don't matter? Would you say the same about people if it meant discriminating because of their colour or religion? How old should people die then?

Personally I think that a lot of younger, vulnerable people (like me) shielded succesfully, whereas older people still get infected by their carers etc.

What a stupid comment... At the end of the day these elderly people are in their final months of life... We think we are doing them a favour by shielding them. When in fact all we are doing is making sure that their last months on this planet are miserable by not letting them live or see anyone....

@MummyPop00

Hospitals would be overwhelmed very quickly. All other services would follow

Well, I’ve already acknowledged the NHS would be swamped but the country would simply have to mobilise dependent on how bad things got. We’ve got an ever increasing army of unemployed to call upon. Plenty of Students. The majority of Retired people who survive. If it really got that bad, we could summon the manpower I’ve little doubt about it. Less people in inessential roles and redeployed in essential key working roles. Country would effectively be put on a war footing. IF it got that bad, we’d do it. Because there would be no alternative.

You ve got a lot more faith in our Govt than i have.

We'd just no health service at all, deaths in the 100s of 1000s, CV as well as other causes, field hospitals, food shortages and riots.

Mobilise is just a hot air sound bite, same as War footing

We just wouldn't have the time to react, we'd have just weeks....

but we knew WW2 was coming years before it happened, the Spitfire was designed in the mid 30's & funnily enough, its development was opposed by churchill and championed by chamberlain!

I'm still wondering who we're saving the NHS for.

So the plan is an "army " of the unemployed people, students and retired folk are going to mobilize and do what exactly? Nurse the sick, teach school, keep the supply chains going?

That's utterly bonkers.

@lljkk

I'm still wondering who we're saving the NHS for.

...the tory Govt... they do not want the negative headlines and TV footage that beds in car parks would generate.

Where as people dying quietly in CH's and the community tend to go unnoticed.

Do you not notice how many times ministers will say "Our NHS wasn't overwhelmed like the Italians and Spanish health systems were?

Sheepandcow
Why do you think it is so much worse to due from Covid than anything else? Lots of other deaths are entirely preventable so I'm assuming it's not that.