Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@ceeveebee

Manchester councillor on local news just now said that 55% of the c2,500 positive cases in the last week in the city were aged 17-21 and living in student accommodation

This is interesting, and there are many students over 21 and not in student accommodation, but still mingling.

Just found this update

Is there anyone here that has put in research grant funding proposal ever?

Yes, why do you ask? (at least a decade ago now though so my experience may not be that relevant)

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzyDo you have na indie_sage type thing in Germany? OR is RKI the gold standard and people believe them? From the outside they look really competent :)[/quote]
......
The RKI is the main source and it is the gold standard here, gives detailled daily reports in German & English, runs studies etc,
also a comprehensive dashboard with information & charts going down to the local administrative district level, updated each morning.

For a talking head, there is Merkel's chief virology advisor Christian Drosten, who developed the first Covid test back in January
He has been doing excellent podcasts, a scientist who is a natural communicator.

Nothing like Indie SAGE, but there is another leading virologist, Hendrik Streeck, who led the Gangelt study.
He advocates a more relaxed SD, considering the wider effects outside public health, but his disagreement with Drosten is respectful.

The federal health minister Jens Spahn is very good and active, knows his job thoroughly.
He and Merkel had frequent meetings with Drosten and other advisors from January, but we don't hear from the backroom crew

Merkel delegates most communication to Spahn and gives only the occasional speech, when there are important changes or higher risk,
but she is always very clear and obviously understands the science very well

The 16 German states are pretty autonomous in applying national policy, so each have their own PM and health minister issuing information about measures and risk level etc in their state
Then there are mayors and public health officials in the 401 administrative districts who add further detail.
There are some national rules, but the 16 states are very different in population density and have massive differences in infection level;
hence the need for local interpretation and detailled local measures made by those who know their patch

@Timeforanotherusername

One city i rarely see mentioned is Birmingham.

Its not North or South so tends to be ignored completely.

Cases are not brilliant but its not rising as steeply as areas of the North West / North East.

What is the difference?

Andy Burnham has repeatedly argued that lockdown was lifted too early for the North West. It is thought it may have still been endemic at low levels as lockdown lifted.

Andy Burnham has repeatedly argued that lockdown was lifted too early for the North West. It is thought it may have still been endemic at low levels as lockdown lifted.

I think this was the case in some parts of Yorkshire too. Looking at the infection levels in Bradford they stayed at a steady level, higher than most of the UK through June, July and August before going up in September.

I suppose the issue is, would a longer lockdown in the NE have made a substantial difference? I am not sure whether continued increasing restrictions would have/are actually making that much difference. To my mind a key issue seems to be that a significant group of people have disengaged. Even if we went into a full national lockdown now would it make a substantial difference in those areas?

@BigChocFrenzy
Thanks!

Different regions in most countries, except for those with very small geography, had different timings for the epidemic start and the end of 1st wave

The UK was unusual, for larger countries in Europe, in that all regions were hit hard in the 1st wave, but the timing was still different

Lockdown timing was geared to London, which for obvious reasons saw infection earlier than the rest of the country, but dropped earlier too

The NW infection levels rose later and then hadn't come down sufficiently low when lockdown was lifted

Are we due a briefing anytime soon?
I live down south, we were on enhanced support but we were took of a few weeks back.
But I have noticed with and without lag that its slowly creeping up again.
My sons school has had 2 teachers test positive but they are in a different building luckily so he doesn't need to isolate.
It does seem more of a south north divide though.
I always thought if we did have a second wave we would be hit harder that time around as London and the North were hit harder the first and might have had some small herd immunity but obviously not the case.

herecomesthesun that second chart you posted isn't Richard's - @rp131 on Twitter - I think it was the Covid stats one? The first one was Richard's, though.

Just for neatness this is his assessment (posted last night) of the amended picture now, compared to the Whitty/Vallance scenario. He seems to reckon it's a doubling period of roughly every 9 days, rather than 7.
He's a really excellent source of information, I check with him and this thread before anything else now.
(Disclaimer: I am not a statistician or have any ability with data whatsoever so you lot are helping to keep me sane)

It's interesting that some of the student cities are not (yet!) rising up the ranks of areas badly affected.

Those in the East of England - Norwich (UEA & Norwich Univ of Arts) and Cambridge (which has Anglia Ruskin too) are 271st and 199th respectively, out of 316 local councils. Norwich has a large student population and UEA is doing lots of on-campus testing, yet doesn't seem to have a problem so far.

The universities in the South West include Bristol at 189th, Plymouth at 235th, Portsmouth at 211th and Bath at 158th. So although cases are rising pretty much throughout the country, we can't say all university cities are disproportionately affected at this time.

Has he done a chart with the excess 15k adjusted to the right day? That would be interesting.

I don't understand that really. If cases in the NW were much lower than London at the time of lockdown why did the lockdown not stop things in their tracks? I thought a key issue with the U.K. was locking down late which meant that it took a long time for case numbers to stabilise and then come down. If they were low in the NW when lockdown started shouldn't they have stayed low and fallen more quickly?

I suppose there may have been greater compliance with a continued lockdown as opposed to the "in, out" scenario we currently have but if people have disengaged and are not following the current guidance (which has been enhanced levels for quite a considerable period) then where does that leave you?

@Witchend

Has he done a chart with the excess 15k adjusted to the right day? That would be interesting.

He has done a chart by specimen date, it's the first one herecomesun posted and is up to date. He has also down doubling by report date/specimen dates over 14 days comparisons on his twitter feed. As Cedilla says it looks like doubling at 9 days

The NW infection levels rose later and then hadn't come down sufficiently low when lockdown was lifted.

I am not sure it is true. If we look at historic ONS surveys conducted in late June - early July, COVID prevalence in North West and North East was in fact very low.

July 2 release estimating prevalence on June 25 - North West is lower than London and just slightly higher than South West:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2020

July 17 release estimating prevalence on July 9 - North West is still lower than London:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england17july2020

We have also got an example of Scotland which lifted the lockdown later than England with very low prevalence but the delay has not necessarily helped. The numbers have still been growing rapidly (similarly to England and similarly to most other Western European countries with the exception of Germany).

In other words, I am not sure the length of the lockdown would have changed much. I think we might have underestimated the virus seasonality. If we look at the Whitty's old positivity graph from the Sep 9th conference, the percentages of positive tests were in fact relatively stable up until the second half of Aug. The date of Aug 24 seemed to have been the turning point - positivity started going up from that date on.

@Witchend

Has he done a chart with the excess 15k adjusted to the right day? That would be interesting.

......

UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats have a chart showing the numbers for that

Sorry, he has done the 5th now. Here are all the graphs comparing specimen vs report date and 7/9/14 day doubling

mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1313135772577525761

The 28th September really is an anomaly, surely some catch up data will be on the way for that date.

The universities in the South West include Bristol at 189th, Plymouth at 235th, Portsmouth at 211th and Bath at 158th. So although cases are rising pretty much throughout the country, we can't say all university cities are disproportionately affected at this time

I've posted about this before. It's difficult to understand the difference between the student areas of Leeds and the student areas of Bristol, for example. Both attract students of all different demographics from all across the country. Behaviour is similar ( I have a DD in Bristol and live in Leeds). I would have thought that the seeding infections would have come from the students themselves rather than the communities they are moving to, but maybe I'm wrong.

@wintertravel1980

The NW infection levels rose later and then hadn't come down sufficiently low when lockdown was lifted.

I am not sure it is true. If we look at historic ONS surveys conducted in late June - early July, COVID prevalence in North West and North East was in fact very low.

July 2 release estimating prevalence on June 25 - North West is lower than London and just slightly higher than South West:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2020

July 17 release estimating prevalence on July 9 - North West is still lower than London:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england17july2020

We have also got an example of Scotland which lifted the lockdown later than England with very low prevalence but the delay has not necessarily helped. The numbers have still been growing rapidly (similarly to England and similarly to most other Western European countries with the exception of Germany).

In other words, I am not sure the length of the lockdown would have changed much. I think we might have underestimated the virus seasonality. If we look at the Whitty's old positivity graph from the Sep 9th conference, the percentages of positive tests were in fact relatively stable up until the second half of Aug. The date of Aug 24 seemed to have been the turning point - positivity started going up from that date on.

.... It's not the length of the lockdown; it's the timing

Germany's lockdown was shorter and less strict, but very early in the progress of the epidemic, as measured by deaths & cases.

I've read the ONS reports, but I wonder if they were at all able to sample the most deprived areas where infection may have lingered
Some councillors, mayors, people actually at ground level there have said the infection never died down as much as officially reported

If timing is key then surely the NW locked down earlier in its epidemic curve than London? So should have had a better result?

@cathyandclare

The 28th September really is an anomaly, surely some catch up data will be on the way for that date.

The 28th really sticks out doesn't it?

Sewage studies have the great advantage that they don't rely on volunteers to be tested

• the latter of course mostly excludes those who generally don't cooperate with the authorities and avoid compliance with measures

I suppose what it looks like to me is that, regardless of timing or length of lockdown, it just hasn't been particularly effective in certain areas and if the full national lockdown wasn't particularly effective I can't see that enhanced levels of restrictions will be either.