Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Sunshinegirl82

If timing is key then surely the NW locked down earlier in its epidemic curve than London? So should have had a better result?

.... How are you measuring results ?

I think the total cases and deaths / 100,000 are higher in London, obviously because of population density and international connections

However, compliance and later behaviour affects how long a 1st wave lingers, or if it flares up again
iirc, London footfall / mobility indicators are still well down on pre-Covid compared to other regions, so it hasn't flared up as much as one might expect from a world city

However, London R and growth rate are now as high as the NW

@Sunshinegirl82

I suppose what it looks like to me is that, regardless of timing or length of lockdown, it just hasn't been particularly effective in certain areas and if the full national lockdown wasn't particularly effective I can't see that enhanced levels of restrictions will be either.

.... Yes London was very compliant with lockdown From reports, some current hotspots were not so, which would mean measures take longer to have effect, or indeed currently there may be insufficient compliance and further measures may have little efect unless strictly enforced somehow

I only ask in a tiny voice....
What's the point of any lockdown when we are sending kids to school? There is a huge transmission point, well, a whole network of transmission points, that we allow to continue without any preventive measures.

When communities have been ignored for decades and given little support, it's rather optimistic expecting them to now trust the authorities and spring into complying with the testing and isolation rules

TheSun because not sending children to school is devastating for so many of them.

I think it was quoted that 2 million never engaged in education during school closures.

That's a massive amount!

We cannot ignore this.

@BigChocFrenzy
Well, by reports maybe, but by living here: not so much. I go around 3 boroughs in SW London just when I drive to the butcher, veg store and big sainsbury's. During full lockdown: Thames pathway was crammed, no sd, no masks. Pubs were illegally? open and serving drinks to outside huge crowds. Shops: no masks. SD only because there weren't that many ppl.
Local parks: there were always 2-5 families together with small kids playing.

Now: every school requires masks on parents at gates. So parents go 5 meters from gate, no mask and kids go to them, whilst they are chatting. Coffee shops, etc packed, no real distancing between tables. Think small places with 4 tables in normal times. They have no space to distance.

Masks worn under nose is the most typical.
And this is supposed to be an affluent area with highly educated ppl.

I suppose what I mean by results is that, when people suggest that lockdown was London centric, that should have actually helped the NW not hindered (as cases there were much lower there when lockdown started) but it doesn't seem to played out that way.

On paper the NW locked down earlier in their epidemic curve and so should have brought their cases under control much more quickly.

Clearly the decision to lift lockdown in some areas might have been a poor one but at the same time if an 8/9 week lockdown from a lower base of infection level wasn't enough to get cases right down and bring things under control would any length of lockdown worked?

@Timeforanotherusername
You are right, but there is still no logic behind it from a scientific (biology) perspective.
And I would argue that targeting 2m from a population of 10.5 would be money better spent.
(sorry, I'm terribly bitter as I am having school troubles. Had 2 calls already from them today)

BCF: how true!

If we accept that disengagement is a key issue rather than the restrictions themselves then you can have all the threats of fines etc that you want and it won't make much of a difference unless you've got the army on the streets to enforce compliance (and I find it very hard to believe there would be the political will for such a move).

In a country that is policed by consent then you need buy in for these type of restrictions which is clearly missing in some areas. That needs to be the focus.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I only ask in a tiny voice.... What's the point of any lockdown when we are sending kids to school? There is a huge transmission point, well, a whole network of transmission points, that we allow to continue without any preventive measures.

Is the point not that, in order to keep schools open, we need to restrict pretty much everything else?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I only ask in a tiny voice.... What's the point of any lockdown when we are sending kids to school? There is a huge transmission point, well, a whole network of transmission points, that we allow to continue without any preventive measures.

.... Every gathering of people increases the risk of increasing infection growth rate and R

So there has to be a cost-benefit analysis, short term and long term too
The benefit of children being in school is huge - to them and their parents too, being able to work and pay the bills
So it outweighs the risk

I agree in principal, but without mandatory masks and good ventilation I just think -atm- it is a huge lab where our kids are the rats.

Put in masks (at least in secondary) and half the class sizes and I'll champion it on every forum possible.

Where my logic fails to to see the point is that we are doing restrictions on one side and then letting it all go to waste by not letting hordes (sorry) mingle without any preventive measures. The fact that 150 kids are in one "bubble" doesn't constitute as a preventive measure really with teachers walking across them freely.

@Sunshinegirl82

If we accept that disengagement is a key issue rather than the restrictions themselves then you can have all the threats of fines etc that you want and it won't make much of a difference unless you've got the army on the streets to enforce compliance (and I find it very hard to believe there would be the political will for such a move).

In a country that is policed by consent then you need buy in for these type of restrictions which is clearly missing in some areas. That needs to be the focus.

This is absolutely key. Currently the response to people in some areas not keeping to the restrictions is to ramp up the restrictions more and more. People need to believe and support the measures, as happened widely in very early lock down. There was a feeling of being in it together, which is not the case now. Sorry not data!

totally agree.

If there is a later lockdown this winter - hopefully not ! - I would hope that schools continue, although masked and with govt money for cleaners, sanitiser etc

Get everyone to work who can, WFH where possible, WoH when not
So people go out to school or work, then come home and stay home.

However, I think parents should be allowed to decide to keep their children home, now as well
and ECV teachers should be allowed to WFH

"half the class sizes"

That's not practical and would imo only happen at much higher levels of deaths, not just cases

It means pt schooling which is not as effective for most students, widening the gulf between the deprivedd and the rest.
It also absolutely buggers working school parents and not just primary school

I agree in principal, but without mandatory masks and good ventilation I just think -atm- it is a huge lab where our kids are the rats. Put in masks (at least in secondary) and half the class sizes and I'll champion it on every forum possible.

Where my logic fails to to see the point is that we are doing restrictions on one side and then letting it all go to waste by not letting hordes (sorry) mingle without any preventive measures. The fact that 150 kids are in one "bubble" doesn't constitute as a preventive measure really with teachers walking across them freely.

Agree 100%

Masks cost next to nothing and would result in LESS disrupted education overall for children.

So many children in the UK are suffering with mental health because of having to isolate, in school one day, out the next, no proper work for when isolating. It's far worse than something consistent with proper mitigation. Like my friend's child in the US who is in school half time, masked (he's 5) and socially distanced all the time, and then good online provision the other half.

Schools WON'T stay open, no matter how good it is for children, if there is no mitigation and community levels are high and test and trace too slow to clamp down on clusters - the current data shows that schools are causing transmission. Too many teachers will be sick or isolating for schools to be 'open' in any meaningful sense.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I agree in principal, but without mandatory masks and good ventilation I just think -atm- it is a huge lab where our kids are the rats.

Put in masks (at least in secondary) and half the class sizes and I'll champion it on every forum possible.

Where my logic fails to to see the point is that we are doing restrictions on one side and then letting it all go to waste by not letting hordes (sorry) mingle without any preventive measures. The fact that 150 kids are in one "bubble" doesn't constitute as a preventive measure really with teachers walking across them freely.

Thank you so much for articulating exactly what my problem is with schools being open as they are. Similar school problems here, and feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall if I try to point out the lack of logical thought behind their arguments. Surely the school situation is unsustainable - let's hope the government realise this sooner rather than later! 🤞

There are still ongoing debates about the impact of schools on virus transmission.

It is clearly not zero (i.e. keeping schools open does increase the risk and pushes up the R rate) but the exact magnitude is unknown. Yes, I have read Zoe Hyde's tweets but she has got her strong views and therefore her "agenda". Other scientists may and will have a different opinion.

The current situation is still providing more education for kids than pt school would, especially the most disadvantaged
and also allowing parents to work more

Some areas have been hard hit, but in most the kids are getting far more days ar school than if the class were split into 2 or 3
Many parents simply cannot supervise their children to engage in school at home, even if an mc minority can

More children, even primary school age, would just be left locked indoors alone, or roaming the streets

Hence why imo those who wish to be allowed to keep their DC home should be allowed to do so, without fines or losing their place,
and let those who wish their kids in school to continue

@TheSunIsStillShining

I do agree with you.
The problem with even locking everything else down and leaving schools is there's the school run twice a day-where parents mix. Bubbles don't really work-ds is in a bubble of 300.
Parents are saying "they're together at school so they're fine going to the park" or "our children are together so if we get it we'll pass it anyway."

Why over the time they were in lockdown and looking to go back in September weren't there plans for how they could safely go back. Rather than spending August with stories about cowardly teachers and research that showed it didn't spread at all between children in bubbles of no more than 10 and 25% of the children in school
And even now, when it's clear it is spreading in school the attitude is "maybe they caught it out of school".

Very few journalists seem to be asking the question: What about the children who were told to shield? The children with vulnerable adults at home? What is the provision for them?

As always I agree with BigChoc, and Whitty, on schools open. Benefit outweighs the risk.

BCF
Okay, I get your point.
In the UK class sizes are around 25-32. Even in an elite private school class sizes are 20-22. And they have a brand new building. With small rooms.

I would say that there should be options based on school cohort, instrument availability, etc. It is unrealistic to have the same rules for a deprived and a private secondary.

...the current data shows that schools are causing transmission.

The current data shows there are outbreaks happening at schools but:

• there is little evidence of super spreading events taking place in schools (for children under 15), and
• we do not have the latest data on school outbreaks but up until the end of June a typical "school outbreak" in the UK involved two teachers and zero children (I have copied the relevant parts from the SAGE papers on this forum multiple times).

FWIW, I am very happy to have my DD in pre-school with zero social distancing and no mask (she is 3.5 but generally I do not support masks in primaries). I think the benefits brought by peer interaction and contributing to social development for a small child by far outweigh any potential risks of COVID.