Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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Was I ridiculously naive to hope that the country that produced Alan Turing and Tim Berners Lee (to name but two) could do just a little bit better than this?

Knowsley is (one of?) the most deprived boroughs in England, think that's a bigger factor than religion.

@Quarantino you can download the data behind it
Go to coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases and scroll down to the bottom
Click on the arrow on the right hand side

numbers of deaths remains very low

Thank you @ceeveebee ! They have all weeks' data on there.

198 of 6792 MSOAs haven't had a single case recorded all year... until the 'last 7 days' in which 32 have apparently started recording cases... bit odd? (The other 166 are still on zero - including where I went on holiday along with a great many other people!)
St Marychurch & Maidencombe suddenly have 14
Ratcliffe, Sutton Bonington & Gotham suddenly have 12

@Quarantino that does seem suspicious....

If someone likes to dig and read a lot.
clinicaltrials.gov/

All clinical trials. There are 3k+ related to covid... I have not looked at them in detail (was looking for something totally different)

(I find it fascinating to be able to have a view of what's going on in the scientific world. Too much data, sure, but search actually works quite well)

There is a slightly different cohort on this thread so I'm going to ask again (BCF - feel free to report)

Is there anyone here that has put in research grant funding proposal ever?

@BigChocFrenzyDo you have na indie_sage type thing in Germany? OR is RKI the gold standard and people believe them? From the outside they look really competent :)

@Quarantino I wonder could that be a lot of university students registering at their parents home address?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Knowsley! We have no student cases (no university, no student accommodation) and yet we’re number 2 in the country for infection rate

So what is the hypothesis? Wikipedia says it's completely dominated by a particular religion and the most religious in the country, have people blamed the religious leaders yet?

Was it particularly quiet in march/april?

Deprivation and all the lack of associated issues. It is a very close knit community with lots of multiple generation households. Most people grew up here, so live close to lots of friends and family so there is a lot of household intermingling. Huge levels of poor education (we were the last time I checked) the only local authority with absolutely no A-level provision in any of the schools. Don’t underestimate how poor literacy leads to a disconnect from government and rules

We had it pretty bad first time round, I know lots of people who had it then (or thought they did).

Very few of the churches are open properly, so I really don’t think it’s being driven by religion.

One city i rarely see mentioned is Birmingham.

Its not North or South so tends to be ignored completely.

Cases are not brilliant but its not rising as steeply as areas of the North West / North East.

What is the difference?

@Quarantino

198 of 6792 MSOAs haven't had a single case recorded all year... until the 'last 7 days' in which 32 have apparently started recording cases... bit odd? (The other 166 are still on zero - including where I went on holiday along with a great many other people!) St Marychurch & Maidencombe suddenly have 14 Ratcliffe, Sutton Bonington & Gotham suddenly have 12

Ratcliffe, Sutton Bonington & Gotham - Sutton Bonnington is the location of one of the Nottingham University campuses for vets and bio sciences ...

CDC has reissued its statement on airborne transmission (issued then withdrawn previously):

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

"Covid-19 can sometimes be spread by airborne transmission"

Deprivation and all the lack of associated issues. It is a very close knit community with lots of multiple generation households

We had it pretty bad first time round, I know lots of people who had it then (or thought they did)

Thanks @GetAMoveOnTroodon that still applies to lots of other areas though (my religion thing wasn't a serious suggestion, but it was exactly what was used against majority muslim areas of course) and they're not as high. Simply the bad luck of a few super spreaders could be the difference though.

Interesting article on viral loads (ref at bottom of article). Does make me question further the effectiveness of the recent change from testing up to day 5 of illness to day 8.

www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201005/Viral-loads-peak-before-symptom-onset-in-COVID-19.aspx

I’m in Stockport which is going through the roof. No student accommodation here (there is a large FE college but afaik kids mostly live at home). We also have pockets of deprivation but at least half the borough is leafy. A few weeks ago we were told that it was the 18-30 group that was the main driver of communication but would really like to know now. We border with Manchester and (at least in normal times) a large number of people commute there to work.

(Also unlike some other GM boroughs like Oldham, Rochdale and Bolton we are overwhelmingly white this end)

@sirfredfredgeorge there are lots of other deprived places in the UK, but I think the fact Knowsley is one of the most deprived and has one of the highest rates has to be linked. This is a good Guardian article from a couple of years ago summing up the avalanche of problems there are here (nothing has really changed since then so it is still relevant).

There are going to be some fantastic research opportunities for scientists in the future analysing all of this I am sure

www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jan/29/knowsley-education-catastrophe-a-levels-merseyside

This may have been the case earlier (?) but I note every council in England reported one case last week.

Frazzled we are in Trafford, fairly similar demographics to Stockport I think (I was borough up in Stockport so know it well) and has until recently had very similar rates. No university here either but lots of secondary schools. Whilst a few weeks ago the cases were mainly in the north of the borough which borders Manchester, now every single ward has cases, mostly in double figures (a lot of areas that were previously very low suddenly have 10 or more cases appearing after the error correction.)

*brought up

@Frazzled2207

I’m in Stockport which is going through the roof. No student accommodation here (there is a large FE college but afaik kids mostly live at home). We also have pockets of deprivation but at least half the borough is leafy. A few weeks ago we were told that it was the 18-30 group that was the main driver of communication but would really like to know now. We border with Manchester and (at least in normal times) a large number of people commute there to work.

I've posted before about FE colleges being drivers of infection, especially if the community rate is high. Colleges are more loosely organised and disciplined than schools and have less autonomy and poorer finances than universities. They bring in learners from a wide number of workplaces on vocational courses, including care homes, schools and nurseries, construction sites and hospitality. They have learners on day and block release courses. Most are local but some learners travel a long way to get to college - 30 miles is not an unusual commute for our learners on day/block release. Ages of learners can range from 16 to 60. The idea of bubbles in this setting is purely notional and IMO totally disingenuous.

So how are we doing now with respect to this chart?