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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2020 12:00

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
55
PatriciaHolm · 05/10/2020 20:33

@Nquartz

Re the test & trace shambles, is it worth signing this:

weownit.org.uk/save-lives-scrap-serco-now

As always, thank you for the ongoing informative threads & it's nice to see @PatriciaHolm back.

Aw thanks ;-) mixture of holiday and family bereavement (non Covid) distracted for a while, but back to it now!
NeurotrashWarrior · 05/10/2020 20:33

Blush sorry, small rant about clothes in feminist chat.

"Thinly veiled ad for supermarket clothes makes out that dressing just like thousands of ordinary..."

I shall recite my times tables in the corner for a bit.

TheSunIsStillShining · 05/10/2020 20:40

@NeurotrashWarrior
I'll add you an additional topic seed: why do women's jeans have such small pockets!!!?? A small phone hardly fits.

Regulus · 05/10/2020 20:43

Is Ireland being over the top? Keep reading about Boris saying we can 'get on top of this again' wouldn't it have been better to not get behind this again?

PatriciaHolm · 05/10/2020 20:46

Interesting graphic from the ever reliable @rp131 on Twitter, showing (his Twitter comment) - "Top 30 entries from today's MSOA report for new positives in 4 days from last Monday (28-Sep to 01-Oct). Anything stand out? Northumbria University is in number 12 and numbers 3 + 29 are right next door."

Basically - Universities are, right now, the driver of cases. The vast majority of which are likely to be asymptomatic if the Northumbria experience is any indication.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22
cathyandclare · 05/10/2020 20:47

All the Leeds locations are where students live too.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2020 20:48

How Excel may have caused loss of 16,000 Covid tests in England

Explains what happened in simple language, but oh gawd .... manual data input
Were labs sending all the test data every time via Excel, instead of just the new data Confused

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/how-excel-may-have-caused-loss-of-16000-covid-tests-in-england

... the rapid development of the testing programme has meant that much of the work is still done manually,
with individual labs sending PHE spreadsheets containing their results.

Although the system has improved from the early days of the pandemic, when some of the work was performed with phone calls, pens and paper, it is still far from automated.

In this case, the Guardian understands, one lab had sent its daily test report to PHE in the form of a CSV file – the simplest possible database format, just a list of values separated by commas.
That report was then loaded into Microsoft Excel, and the new tests at the bottom were added to the main database.

But while CSV files can be any size, Microsoft Excel files can only be 1,048,576 rows long – or, in older versions which PHE may have still been using, a mere 65,536.
When a CSV file longer than that is opened, the bottom rows get cut off and are no longer displayed.

That means that, once the lab had performed more than a million tests, it was only a matter of time before its reports failed to be read by PHE.

OP posts:
EducatingArti · 05/10/2020 20:51

I don't think they were sending all the data every time but PHE was adding each new lot of data onto the bottom of the same spreadsheet?

NeurotrashWarrior · 05/10/2020 20:53

TheSun, do not get me started...

Another reason why I'm going back to men's jeans!

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 20:54

BCF it is probably quite an easy one to miss in fairness.

Especially if the individual labs are sending their data in different ways.

And many systems do go live without everything ready. Which inevitably means Excel updates.

Quite simply the time and resource will not be available to get it all automated.

ceeveebee · 05/10/2020 20:54

The bbc has a different explanation:

The problem is that PHE's own developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS.
As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases.
When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.
For a bit of context, Excel's XLS file format dates back to 1987. It was superseded by XLSX in 2007. Had this been used, it would have handled 16 times the number of cases.
At the very least, that would have prevented the error from happening until testing levels were significantly higher than they are today,
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 20:55

Excel upliads

NeurotrashWarrior · 05/10/2020 20:58

Is there any type of graph yet for an area that separates out the student cases from the non student cases? It would be interesting to see what the local community cases are.

Obviously over a period of time the student rates will impact spread but not perhaps as much as say a mass outbreak at a factory or football match etc as those people will have more interaction with the local communities, schools, older people etc.

Students tend to exist in their own bubble, although bars and entertainment places are where they can then move the infections into the community more easily.

EducatingArti · 05/10/2020 21:06

I think public transport is an area where students and locals are likely to mix, plus supermarkets

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 05/10/2020 21:26

Is there any type of graph yet for an area that separates out the student cases from the non student cases? It would be interesting to see what the local community cases are

Knowsley! We have no student cases (no university, no student accommodation) and yet we’re number 2 in the country for infection rate. Not a graph, so I know it’s not what you were after, but in terms of community transmission we should be the council everyone looks to as a reference as to what can go very wrong very quickly...

grownags · 05/10/2020 21:34

.

Perihelion · 05/10/2020 21:39

OFFS, DD has just told me that the sibling of someone she sits next to in one subject, has tested positive today....why were they at school if the sibling was waiting for a test result Angry
They really need to make it fucking clear about all of the household isolating, before getting results.

Augustbreeze · 05/10/2020 21:47

But I thought it had been discovered that they used columns for individual cases instead of rows?

Tangledyarn · 05/10/2020 21:52

Sheffield cases also being very skewed by student infections too over the last few days.

clareykb · 05/10/2020 22:23

All those Newcastle places are studenty Jesmond and Shieldfield are where lots of the HMO private shared houses are.

ceeveebee · 05/10/2020 22:38

Manchester councillor on local news just now said that 55% of the c2,500 positive cases in the last week in the city were aged 17-21 and living in student accommodation

Piggywaspushed · 05/10/2020 22:39

That's outrageous peri. I could see I happening at my school as we have a different attendance person for each year group. The parents should know though, really. I echo your FFS.

Flev · 05/10/2020 22:41

The five Nottingham areas are all ones covered by the two universities. Figures have shot up over the last week, although apparently the University of Nottingham has been doing a lot if their own testing, which they claim partly explains the increase. That and the enormous number of cases that were missed off the reports over the last week. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54423727

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/10/2020 22:42

Knowsley! We have no student cases (no university, no student accommodation) and yet we’re number 2 in the country for infection rate

So what is the hypothesis? Wikipedia says it's completely dominated by a particular religion and the most religious in the country, have people blamed the religious leaders yet?

Was it particularly quiet in march/april?

Quarantino · 05/10/2020 22:49

@Augustbreeze

But I thought it had been discovered that they used columns for individual cases instead of rows?
Could be wrong, but the only place I saw that mentioned was someone tweeting about an actual report - the report didn't mention 'columns' but the tweeter seemed to assume the report was saying something about that.

Can anyone help me with this question - the English cases map here www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076 - (from the OP links) - is it possible to view past weeks' maps? or download the data behind it (with data over time)?

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