Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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The dashboard is updating until 16:15 but does that REALLY say 17540?!

Belgium is more densely populated than the UK - not England - and has by far the highest deaths / million in Europe

Since their health service & public health seem comparable to those of their neighbours, I'd expect them to have the highest antibodies in Europe
(although Belgium count any death with a sniff of Covid, not just confirmed tests, this fits their excess deaths quite well)

The English SW and SE have low % antibodies
I don't have figures for Scotland, Wales, NI who average much lower population density than England, but as their total deaths / million are a bit lower than England's, I'd expect lower % antibodies than the overall ~6% for the UK

Yes and 77 deaths.

When you look at the date reported figures it doesn't look as alarming- a bit more steady.

UK today

Cases 17,540
Deaths 77

Doubled in a week with the corrected figures for last Thursday (8558)

I keep hoping to see a drop.

This isn’t good is it?

No Piggy, of the “real” countries (ie not city states) the Netherlands has the highest population density, then England if you count it on its own, then Belgium, so it’s pretty densely populated, yes, but not as much as one might think from popular stereotypes (which is why I said it).

Everyone thinks of it as tiny but it’s actually medium sized and has a higher population than loads of other countries which we don’t usually think of as minnows (Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Hungary).

I see there are over 1000 cases at Newcastle Uni.

It would be interesting to know which percentage of positive cases are uni students.

Is the health minister really saying hospital admissions will be "at a critical stage" in 10 days ?

I presume / hope she just means some in a few locations
and patients can be moved around the country at need

Nadine Dorries #StayAlert @NadineDorries

Those who now claim that further measures are not needed,
will in about ten days from now, when hospital admissions are at a critical stage
argue that we didn’t do enough

@MRex and @CoffeeandCroissant the hamster ovary cell lines aren't grown in hamsters, that would be a nightmare to scale. They are a cultured cell line in incubators.

I was thinking how tiny hamster ovaries must be !
I had assumed cultured cells taken out to somewhere much larger

In Leeds 20% of cases are from Uni of Leeds.There are also 31000 staff and students in Leeds Beckett. There's Leeds Arts and Trinity too, around 6k in total. So, assuming similar infection prevalence in other institutions they could account for 40% of cases.

England

Richard@RP131

Updated England date-of-death vs. announcement chart.

Note that the numbers drop at the end as data is still being actively reported for those dates.

Ah,Nadine, my beloved MP...

Blimey, sorry to hear that !

Richard @RP131 on Twitter has produced his usual graph showing the effect of the new cases by LG specimen date against the Whitty/valance example scenario.

Graph by Richard@RP131 of 7-day incidence of the 4 nations

Note how high NI is - Derry was one of the highest areas in the Imperial list posted upthread

Again, the lag of the last few days brings a spurious drop as data is incomplete

twitter thread about current treatments twitter.com/rupert_pearse/status/1312699026027032577

The numbers in hospital didnt go up as much today as it has been doing recently and numbers in mechanical ventilation beds dropped slightly.

I cant see how old the data is on that infection source slide but with more supermarket staff wearing masks risk there may drop.

Great thanks Sunshine always keen to see that

WTAF?!!?!

And no ‘announcements’ about restrictions until Monday😩

Off to get

And BigChoc that lag looks good until you read it’s incomplete data

Does sweden prove it is vit d?
They havent dont anything. Their epidemic should have continued through the summer. So either vit d causing fewer symptoms or weather temperature etc. Though i guess their schools were probably off too.

As Richard@RP131 shows, 9 day case doubling is a good fit

Again remember the data lag in the last few days and the consequent spurious fall

That was instead of the predicted 7 day doubling by Whitty / Vallance on 21 Sept,
which was before some more measures were announced
So looks as if they had a little effect, but not much

@daytripper28

WTAF?!!?!

And no ‘announcements’ about restrictions until Monday😩

Off to get

Off to get ?!

Thats a bit ironic!

I suspect it will be timed to overlap with school holidays.

When do schools tend to close? I know ours are last week October and I think many tend to be the week before?