Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex

The top 10 seem to be moving; not just Liverpool but Exeter has grown massively too: lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker.

(Sorry for not checking in earlier, I had the old thread and thought maybe everyone was just stunned into silence.)

There's been outbreaks in Exeter Uni/med school

Just wondering why London's cases are being reported as individual boroughs? Are they doing that with Liverpool or reporting for the city as a whole?

Looks like cases are on the up in London/Surrey?
www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/property-news/sutton-helier-hospital-coronavirus-live-19056929.amp

@EducatingArti

Dors anyone know the positivity rate for Manchester now? It was about 13% on 26th September but can't find anything more recent

Its only being published weekly by phe for everywhere bar Liverpool.

Liverpool to date has had the worst positivity of anywhere, but this rate of growth seemed to be slowing. Manchester on the other hand was skyrocketing.

My gut feeling is that Manchester will probably prove to be at a similar if not higher rate than Liverpool when the data is released on Friday.

I will be surprised if its much lower tbh.

I have always assumed it was because if the size my Liverpool only has half a million people so more compatible in population to my London borough than the city as a whole.

They have said local lockdown will be city wide and put every borough on the watch list.

If you do want London wide fifers though you can get them under “region” on the website but then the fair comparison is with the north west rather than Liverpool (north west population 7.3 million over 4000 cases today, London 8 million has just over 1000 cases so both high but north west higher).

My own take is London seems middling when compared to other regions, not as high as north east, north west or Yorkshire but higher than the east or south west.

Looking at Imperial's status and extrapolations this week (link in OP) the highest 7-day rates in descending order:

Nottingham, Derry (NI), Manchester, Exeter, Knowsley, Newcastle, Liverpool, Sheffield

Next week's (11-17 October) extrapolations are quite alarming

Watch Nottingham

found a local newspaper saying Exeter is caused by students and the university is doing some of its own testing. www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/covid-warning-following-another-large-4578314

The paper is claiming it hasnt spread to the community yet but cant see that lasting.

More universities should be copying Cambridge.

BBC says 425 students positive at Nottingham university and they have/are getting sites on campus. www.nottingham.ac.uk/coronavirus/exhibiting-covid-19-symptoms.aspx

By the way, the government dashboard (for England only) now includes a very useful view - daily change in reported cases by specimen date:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

In other words, you can see the breakdown of what specimen dates the number reported today relates to. I used to derive this information myself from daily csv files but the change saves me time.

@BigChocFrenzy

I can't read that table, do you have a link?

More reports from universities - Manchester students having parties for the Covid positive, not sure why the uni feels it has to break them up, not much logic in that.

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/06/manchester-students-organising-covid-positive-parties

Local news reporting that Royal Blackburn Hospital A&E is 'extremely busy' and only to attend if you need to and to check 111...

.... don't know if thats covid related by it feels ominious too.

[quote alreadytaken]More reports from universities - Manchester students having parties for the Covid positive, not sure why the uni feels it has to break them up, not much logic in that.

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/06/manchester-students-organising-covid-positive-parties[/quote]
Did you read the article???

This stood out to me:

Across the UK, university cities have seen large flare-ups since students arrived last month, lured by the promise of face-to-face teaching that has already been cancelled as Covid rips through campuses. Confined to their flats instead of painting the town red, some halls have turned into 24-hour party palaces, prompting fears not just of further contagion but also of risky behaviour.

In Newcastle, where more than 800 cases have been reported across its two universities, three students died last weekend after apparently taking drugs in halls. While the circumstances of the deaths are unclear, some students wonder if they would have occurred had the students been able to go to pubs and clubs.

Yes it's been a very tragic situation involving drugs.

There seems to be links with some drugs being supplied that are dangerously ott. Not sure if details yet but a man has been arrested.

It's terribly tragic but students have always experimented with drugs. It's just changed to taking them in halls, instead of at a house party elsewhere or a club.

What seems strange is why London's half a million students don't seem as affected. Are they being more careful? Less testing? Luck?

Separately, today we have had reports of two hospitals in different parts of England being potentially under pressure because of Covid - Blackburn and St Helier in Surrey.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-54413820

I really don't like all this media focus on the students finding it all so funny and the amused close ups of the 'end nudes' post its. As a woman, I find that offensive and feel uncomfortable with the whole party/drug culture being foregrounded with the 'send beer and weed' post its being shown. I feel all middle aged and disapproving, but I also feel sorry for any students holed up in flats for whom this kind of thing is an alien and/or unwelcome experience (which would included my DS if he were a year older and my older DS a year ago). They must be so miserable.

send nudes, obvs!

Now 10 arrests.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/suspected-newcastle-drug-death-students-19054073

@Piggywaspushed

I really don't like all this media focus on the students finding it all so funny and the amused close ups of the 'end nudes' post its. As a woman, I find that offensive and feel uncomfortable with the whole party/drug culture being foregrounded with the 'send beer and weed' post its being shown. I feel all middle aged and disapproving, but I also feel sorry for any students holed up in flats for whom this kind of thing is an alien and/or unwelcome experience (which would included my DS if he were a year older and my older DS a year ago). They must be so miserable.

I think my feeling on this, is there are plenty of very sensible students.

And the worst thing in the world would be to be in a flat with a dickhead who wanted parties all the time when you didn't. Especially if there is a risk that the university might kick YOU out too.

The local news (Newcastle) was saying how they were worried about drugs in halls because at night clubs etc there were bouncers and staff to call paramedics etc so they were safer..not sure if that is true but thought it was an interesting view...It is hugely sad but as pp said it was happening when I was at uni and that was 15 years ago..

I wonder to what extent the university figures / university city figures are so high because they are testing asymptomatic contacts and not just people with the 3 symptoms. AFAIK this is normal for universities (know an academic at Exeter who says it's not just those symptomatic being tested and that their testing set up is excellent - test the day you request it, results following day). I wonder what we'd see if we were testing asymptomatic contacts in schools.

Northumbria was 770 positives but only 78 with symptoms (in the absence of evidence either way I'm assuming those 78 had one of the 3 PHE symptoms).

That's not to minimise the numbers, it's shocking and transmission seems out of control, it's just that perhaps we're seeing these numbers because we're looking and everywhere else is an underestimate because they don't have the bespoke uni testing services and are not testing asymptomatic people.

It might also suggest that while there is clearly transmission occurring in student accommodation (how could there not be, really), if true numbers everywhere are much higher than the PHE symptom based data, that many more students could have come into residence with the virus than expected.

MIT in the US is testing students on campus 4 days a week or more twice a week every week. I bet they'll keep it better under control than here.... news.mit.edu/2020/covid-testing-reopening-0824

London students went back a bit later, I think it will hit London soon

@SheepandCow

It's terribly tragic but students have always experimented with drugs. It's just changed to taking them in halls, instead of at a house party elsewhere or a club.

What seems strange is why London's half a million students don't seem as affected. Are they being more careful? Less testing? Luck?

Separately, today we have had reports of two hospitals in different parts of England being potentially under pressure because of Covid - Blackburn and St Helier in Surrey.

I wonder if London uni students tend to live more with their parents/mates already and less in crowded halls. I imagine that if my son was to go to a local uni, I'd keep him living home in case f2f got cancelled. So he doesn't lose a lot of money.

The other thing might be the intake of international students. Our secondary has seen a loss in boarding kids already and I have 4 friends in diff european countries where the kid's london uni place (kings and lse) were cancelled. They'd rather have the kid defer a year.

If the halls were on lockdown, how did the drugs get in?