Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@SheepandCow

If the halls were on lockdown, how did the drugs get in?

Ah students

If the halls were on lockdown, how did the drugs get in?

They get in to prisons, who don't even have the ability to call up the pizza company to deliver them a pizza.

London universities have loads of student halls accommodation, it's actually more common than some areas I think because there's more pressure on housing that landlords can rent out to non-students.

[quote herecomesthsun]@BigChocFrenzy

I can't read that table, do you have a link?[/quote]
....
It's 3rd link in the OP:

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

In the menu, just switch on the columns for last week, this week and next in the table

Informative (long) article about the dispersion factor, K,

why R is often not as crucial for a virus that is mostly spread by super-spreaders - e.g. Patient 31 in SKorea infecting 5,000 people !-
and why we would do best to concentrate on breaking cluster chains , e.g. by restricting crowds and by back-tracing contacts of infected people, not forward testing of their own contacts

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

“Japan’s commitment to ‘cluster-busting’ allowed it to achieve impressive mitigation with judiciously chosen restrictions.

Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds:
burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation.

The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.”

students will get drunk and take drugs even if you physically lock them into their halls, at least until the drink runs out - it would then be easier to get drugs in than alcohol.

Allowing Covid positive parties would mean they are mixing with a wider group of people, potentially happier and less likely to need the drugs.

The nightclubs may keep an eye open when they are inside but it's not unknown for young people to become separated from people on the way home and suffer for it. The nightclubs just want their business back.

"Allowing Covid positive parties ..."

The problem is how well they enforce keeping out those not yet infected

e.g. People inviting their bf and social circle, or just other students not bothered about the risk and wanting to party

@BigChocFrenzy

Informative (long) article about the dispersion factor, K,

why R is often not as crucial for a virus that is mostly spread by super-spreaders - e.g. Patient 31 in SKorea infecting 5,000 people !-
and why we would do best to concentrate on breaking cluster chains , e.g. by restricting crowds and by back-tracing contacts of infected people, not forward testing of their own contacts

[[https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548]]/

“Japan’s commitment to ‘cluster-busting’ allowed it to achieve impressive mitigation with judiciously chosen restrictions.

Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds:
burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation.

The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.”

Such a good article.

Another few issues:

1. multiple strains of the virus at the same party could make some people extremely unwell, and create new stronger virus strains
2. people might be ok only because they have a small amount of the virus, lots of them sharing additional virus could make some much more unwell.

@SheepandCow

If the halls were on lockdown, how did the drugs get in?

Well given we are pretty sure at least one of our local takeaways is currently running a sideline in weed, I suspect there are fairly easy ways around the problem...

Testing shake up in Lancashire - all the walk in test centres are being closed after government told officials in the county that they would no longer be able to order the kits used in them.

Each town will have one centre and tests must be prebooked. However Burnley which was the highest rate in country until the uni students got together does not yet have a non walk in test site and "it is unclear whether there will be any gap between the closure of the community site in Burnley and the opening of the town's new facilities.

The walk-in stations will shut on Sunday 11th October."

Utter shambles. The town with the 5th highest rate of Covid in England might not have a test centre next week?

Also the permanent test site in Blackburn is at the Royal Hospital. This is an out of town hospital on high ground. Hard to get to if you don't have a car and are feeling unwell. You won't walk two miles to get there in winter.

It could just be incompetence but it all seems designed to suppress the numbers of people getting tested by making it more difficult.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pendletoday.co.uk/health/coronavirus/burnley-and-pendles-walk-covid-test-centres-close-major-shake-2994979%3famp

[quote Choux]Testing shake up in Lancashire - all the walk in test centres are being closed after government told officials in the county that they would no longer be able to order the kits used in them.

Each town will have one centre and tests must be prebooked. However Burnley which was the highest rate in country until the uni students got together does not yet have a non walk in test site and "it is unclear whether there will be any gap between the closure of the community site in Burnley and the opening of the town's new facilities.

The walk-in stations will shut on Sunday 11th October."

Utter shambles. The town with the 5th highest rate of Covid in England might not have a test centre next week?

Also the permanent test site in Blackburn is at the Royal Hospital. This is an out of town hospital on high ground. Hard to get to if you don't have a car and are feeling unwell. You won't walk two miles to get there in winter.

It could just be incompetence but it all seems designed to suppress the numbers of people getting tested by making it more difficult.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pendletoday.co.uk/health/coronavirus/burnley-and-pendles-walk-covid-test-centres-close-major-shake-2994979%3famp[/quote]
It doesn't work to supress the numbers though.

Warrington didn't have a walk in centre until last week (Not Lancashire but I don't know how any site can stay open - if they can't get the tests - surely it will affect places outside.

All you get is a rise in the positivity rate (which can be monitored and gives a pretty big clue as to whats happening) and the hospital admissions and deaths go up.

The idea that you can suppress the numbers is nonsense.

But yeah, accessibility to testing sites in the NW is a HUGE and much over looked issue. I am pretty damn sure its helping to drive the problem.

I notice that the BBC have reported tonight about NW leaders writing to the government wanting more local powers to deal with the problem. One of the key things is they want to take over track and trace locally and ditch the 'counterproductive' 10pm curfew.

I think thats what we should be keeping eyes on in terms of management as a nationally lead approach doesn't appear to be working terribly well...

[quote Choux]Testing shake up in Lancashire - all the walk in test centres are being closed after government told officials in the county that they would no longer be able to order the kits used in them.

Each town will have one centre and tests must be prebooked. However Burnley which was the highest rate in country until the uni students got together does not yet have a non walk in test site and "it is unclear whether there will be any gap between the closure of the community site in Burnley and the opening of the town's new facilities.

The walk-in stations will shut on Sunday 11th October."

Utter shambles. The town with the 5th highest rate of Covid in England might not have a test centre next week?

Also the permanent test site in Blackburn is at the Royal Hospital. This is an out of town hospital on high ground. Hard to get to if you don't have a car and are feeling unwell. You won't walk two miles to get there in winter.

It could just be incompetence but it all seems designed to suppress the numbers of people getting tested by making it more difficult.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pendletoday.co.uk/health/coronavirus/burnley-and-pendles-walk-covid-test-centres-close-major-shake-2994979%3famp[/quote]
And Burnley’s walk-in had its hours slashed 3 weeks ago.it was open 7 days a week but now it shuts on Thursday and fridays because they cannot meet demand. It is the busiest testing centre in Lancashire. It’s next to a Tesco and loads of the people waiting in the large queues nip in the the supermarket ! So it might be good if it changes location. Somebody tried to burn it down a couple of weeks ago. There is a large anti covid conspiracy community in that part of east lancs.

BCF I read that article a few days ago but though it would have been mentioned here by now.

I do think we really need to have a good look at backward tracing rather than forward tracing - however that still requires track and trace to be done within 48 hours. Which I am skeptical is a realistic target for the UK at this point.

I think thats the real issue. Our systems are simply too slow.

What seems strange is why London's half a million students don't seem as affected. Are they being more careful? Less testing? Luck?

My old uni in London only has freshers week this week. All of the last few weeks I've been thinking crikey they went back early!

@RedToothBrush
I wonder whether after the reports that THC potentially protects against Covid, I can imagine those local pizza n' weed takeaways are doing very well.

I think a coherent national approach would be good. It gets ever so confusing when every area has different rules, and so many people live, work, and shop, across local borders. The local approach stirs up division and resentment too. Even with areas currently low, it's sensible to take preventative action rather than waiting for things to get out of control there too.
However, I certainly think local leaders should be more included in discussions. Middlesbrough and Hartlepool were given just 5 minutes notice of their restrictions. Ridiculous!

[quote SheepandCow]@RedToothBrush
I wonder whether after the reports that THC potentially protects against Covid, I can imagine those local pizza n' weed takeaways are doing very well.

I think a coherent national approach would be good. It gets ever so confusing when every area has different rules, and so many people live, work, and shop, across local borders. The local approach stirs up division and resentment too. Even with areas currently low, it's sensible to take preventative action rather than waiting for things to get out of control there too.
However, I certainly think local leaders should be more included in discussions. Middlesbrough and Hartlepool were given just 5 minutes notice of their restrictions. Ridiculous![/quote]
We swing between 5 minutes notice of restrictions and areas almost begging for over a week for restrictions to be brought in...

Meanwhile Nottingham has more cases per 100,000 than places in a the tightest lockdown and they are still on the rule of 6.

It's been reported locally that Nottingham is expecting to go into local lockdown measures imminently.

I work in Nottingham but have been working from home full time again for the last couple of weeks.

That Imperial table is extrapolating Nottingham to reach 1,771 / 100,000 this week which would be the highest 7-day incidence in the UK since the 1st wave

and > 4,800 next week (that's without lockdown though, which will presumably happen any day now)

I'm Nottingham (although not the city). The council are already asking people to observe the extra restrictions and not wait until they are (inevitably) announced.

It's telling that the numbered skyrocketed during Freshers week, when previously low. Two universities in the city.

As someone said earlier, the high rates among students, uncovered because of targeted and privately-funded testing, surely demonstrates the high but mainly hidden rates in all communities?

Of course I realise the cases have been amplified by initial non-socially distanced student close contact!

North west ambulance posted yesterday they were receiving a high number of 999 calls. They didn't say what but given everything shuts at 10 and it was a weekday I wouldn't have thought drink/trauma so more likely medical related

This is useful. It's not new data, but the grouping (per school) makes it a useful addition.

schoolcovidmap.org.uk/

@FATEdestiny

I'm Nottingham (although not the city). The council are already asking people to observe the extra restrictions and not wait until they are (inevitably) announced.

It's telling that the numbered skyrocketed during Freshers week, when previously low. Two universities in the city.

I'm in the city, expecting the extra restrictions to be announced Friday.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]This is useful. It's not new data, but the grouping (per school) makes it a useful addition.

schoolcovidmap.org.uk/[/quote]
That is actually quite a good way of presenting it, i especially like the more localised rates (rather than just the whole borough)
I think the figures must be pre-correction though as the rate for my area is nearly double what it’s showing! (It says updated on Fridays so assume it will be corrected this Friday )