Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

North West England plus North East England and Yorkshire (website gives that as one region) = 70% of today's admissions figures, so in England very much concentrated in the North.

Today in Liverpool...

Report published 6th October 2020
Cases data from week 27th September - 3rd October 2020

Data extracted covering testing up to 2nd October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 2570, an increase of 951 cases on the previous week.

The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 516 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate is 23.2%.

There has been a rapid and worrying increase in cases in Liverpool since the 1 September, when there were 94 cases per week, to the current level of 2570 cases per week.

Fucking hell.

Meanwhile Nottingham has more cases per 100,000 than places in a the tightest lockdown and they are still on the rule of 6.

TBH I'm beginning to wonder if there is any management of cases going on, and wtf is the point in me sticking to any rules, given the ridiculous nature of how local lockdowns are being triggered (and how long its taking to put them in when a problem becomes blindingly obvious to anyone without an excel spreadsheet obsession).

@PrayingandHoping

Oh thank you *@PatriciaHolm* I've not found that! I will go look again!

no problem - it's only available on a Nation basis, not UK level, so you don't know you can until you look at it at that level!

@PatriciaHolm found it at nation level. I don't often look there.... 👍👍

I hope all students at all Unis are able to do this soon (from the guardian)
Hundreds of Cambridge University students have opted into a weekly Covid-19 testing scheme designed to minimise the chance of outbreaks as term begins. As PA Media reports, tests will be delivered to Cambridge’s 31 colleges where students are living in households of between six and 10 people sharing kitchen and bathroom facilities. It is hoped that by testing on a pooled basis by household the university could effectively test 15,000 students in college accommodation with around 2,000 tests per week.

Everyone in a household would complete a nose and throat swab, with up to 10 swabs going into a single test tube for a single test. If the pooled swabs test positive for Covid-19, everyone in the household would be tested individually to establish who is positive.

@PatriciaHolm would you mind telling me which website that is? It looks like the gov dashboard but I am not seeing that detail (perhaps because I am on the mobile version?)
Thank you

@RedToothBrush where do you find that Liverpool data? Is it also available for other hotspots?

Aha have just read your other post, found it now!

@ceeveebee u can see it on mobile version

It's on the cases page, then under nation

Ah just seen your second post! 👍

@CoffeeandCroissant

North West England plus North East England and Yorkshire (website gives that as one region) = 70% of today's admissions figures, so in England very much concentrated in the North.

Indeed - London's daily admissions have been stable for about a fortnight, for example. @RP131 on Twitter's analysis suggests authorities that account for 22% of England's population account for 55% of the cases.

Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield alone recorded 17% of cases against 4.5% of England's population.

Its Liverpool only I'm afraid. On their council website here:

liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases

They update daily.

Btw, when we were at the peak in April we were at over 20% positivity.

WHO consider anything over 5% to be bad.

23% is insane. And thats GOT to indicate that the virus is more or less running unchecked without tracing and isolating.

RedToothBrush, I'm not far from Liverpool and those stats are pretty worrying. I don't understand the significance of the positivity rate though. At this time of year wouldn't you expect a low positivity rate because lots of people have coughs / temps due to other seasonal illnesses?

On a separate note about harsh enforcement of isolation etc - after the announcement of the astronomical fines for not isolating quite a few of my acquaintances said they just won't get tested. IMO you need community buy-in for all of the restrictions, not simply increasing punishment.

Cross-post RTB! Thanks for the explanation for positivity rate.

But cases are going up across the country. Rates are only low in the south in relation to the north and they are rising.

The map is getting bluer and bluer...

I suppose, with a positive spin, you could say that it's because Liverpool are highly effectively targeting people likely to be positive!!!! But I agree that is very unlikely.

Ed Conway on Sky news is saying that “we’ve been assured this (14,500 cases) isn’t part of the backlog effect”. Which means the number is really worrying.

@Goldistheanswer

Ed Conway on Sky news is saying that “we’ve been assured this (14,500 cases) isn’t part of the backlog effect”. Which means the number is really worrying.

Well we would expect numbers to go through the roof because the we've not track and traced thousands of cases. It was an inevitability.

It wasn't just an IT error.

23% is insane. And thats GOT to indicate that the virus is more or less running unchecked without tracing and isolating.

Yes. This is shocking

There has been a rapid and worrying increase in cases in Liverpool since the 1 September, when there were 94 cases per week, to the current level of 2570 cases per week. That's doubling every 8 days ish? (slightly under every 8 days)

@Goldistheanswer

Ed Conway on Sky news is saying that “we’ve been assured this (14,500 cases) isn’t part of the backlog effect”. Which means the number is really worrying.

However looking at the graph of catch up from yesterday and the figures by specimen date, there does appear to have been catch up on the 28/9.

Red - that positivity rate is insane

Anecdotal but positive so I’m going to share- the 7 people I know who’ve been tested in the NW in the last week have all had their results back within 2 days. That’s the quickest for ages

Just refreshing the cases per 100K for councils in England after today's data release. If we keep going at this rate the whole country is going to be on the watchlist soon enough.

As of the data released an hour ago, almost half the councils in England, have 50 new cases per 100K pop over the 7 days up to 1st Oct.

I've updated the councils page here: www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

Manchester is up at 527 cases per 100K

From red's LIverpool link:

62% of cases were under 40
22% were 40-59

==> only 16% are aged 60+
Hence hospitalisation and deaths are not as high a they would be if more of the 60+ and especially 80+ were being infected

87% of cases are white British, nearly as much as the general population there

Dors anyone know the positivity rate for Manchester now? It was about 13% on 26th September but can't find anything more recent

The top 10 seem to be moving; not just Liverpool but Exeter has grown massively too: lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker.

(Sorry for not checking in earlier, I had the old thread and thought maybe everyone was just stunned into silence.)