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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2020 12:00

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
55
EducatingArti · 06/10/2020 15:33

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/parents-manchester-would-schools-close-19058373?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
This is quite an interesting survey with regards to schooling in Greater Manchester.
About 380 schools have had to get groups of students and teachers to self isolate since the beginning of term and a few have had to close completely for a while (usually because there aren't enough staff to keep the school open).
There are 274 secondary schools in Greater Manchester. I can't find the number of primaries. The Manchester Evening News reported on 23 rd September that a fifth of schools had been hit by cases. It must be more than that now.
Manchester Universities have made a decision today to move all teaching online.

QuentinWinters · 06/10/2020 15:56

Not at all surprised by this, it's going to make it hard to control the spread 9f the virus over winter without a lockdown though
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54435240

Frazzled2207 · 06/10/2020 16:09

urgh 14542 cases

ceeveebee · 06/10/2020 16:10

They’re adding up the multiple spreadsheets as we speak, probably with an abacus on hand just to be sure Grin
But looks like another 14k cases today

TheeStallion · 06/10/2020 16:11

14542 cases

Clearly with the amended data we are following Whitty and Valences model.

IloveJKRowling · 06/10/2020 16:12

The biggest problem is that the government is more interested in political ideology than science or controlling the virus.

It was obvious what was going to happen in schools and universities, absolutely obvious. The rest of the world and WHO are shaking their heads at us. It doesn't make sense that children have to wear a mask for 5 mins in a shop but not in school. It's not logical.

The things they're doing will not control the virus (have been shown not to by now, in fact). You can't have masks piecemeal, or social distancing piecemeal, especially once there is widespread community transmission, which there is now in many parts of the UK.

I think we're leaderless to be honest. The job ad I posted on the last thread - that is not the sign of a government in control of the pandemic.
They've got everything wrong, they haven't planned, have given vast sums of money to unqualified private for-profit companies ill equipped to deliver results. The communication has been dismal.

Having said all that, I am still perplexed how so many people are willing to argue endlessly that masks in school will 'harm children' or 'harm education' when one thing covid has shown us is that our children have a shit education anyway compared to a lot of Europe, with massive class sizes and underinvestment. How throwing teachers under the bus and making them stressed and demoralised will help the recruitment crisis I don't know, either. All these people who are so against masks seemingly are fine with massive class sizes, stressed and overburdened teachers, and their children having to be in and out of school like yo-yos. It's just so strange.

I am very clear at this point that I do not understand the majority of human beings. Evidence doesn't seem to matter...... so I am grateful for this thread!

cathyandclare · 06/10/2020 16:13

Yes. Better numbers of tests over 276k and lots of mobile units in uni towns (even York which has lowish figures has a new one). But, even so, high figures and 76 deaths. It'll be interesting to see if some are catch up from the 28th.

Frazzled2207 · 06/10/2020 16:15

and 76 deaths. This is very much going in the wrong direction isn't it.

ceeveebee · 06/10/2020 16:17

Looks like the daily average by specimen date is now around 12k

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22
Shitfuckoh · 06/10/2020 16:18

Over 14k cases and 76 deaths. Patients admitted seems to have shot up Sad

cathyandclare · 06/10/2020 16:18

Just looked at the tests by specimen date and September 28th is now 9,875, so 5k extra there I think.

ceeveebee · 06/10/2020 16:19

Does that mean it’s doubling every 7 days?

Shitfuckoh · 06/10/2020 16:19

@ceeveebee

Looks like the daily average by specimen date is now around 12k
Which if we're doubling at the 9 day mark (for now) then we could be getting 15k specimen date by the end of the week?
rosesbloom · 06/10/2020 16:20

So cases have gone up yet again and as far as I'm aware there is still no indication from the government what the plan is if cases continue to rise?

I completely agree with every point you made @IloveJKRowling It is illogical and frustrating.

EducatingArti · 06/10/2020 16:21

@IloveJKRowling

The biggest problem is that the government is more interested in political ideology than science or controlling the virus.

It was obvious what was going to happen in schools and universities, absolutely obvious. The rest of the world and WHO are shaking their heads at us. It doesn't make sense that children have to wear a mask for 5 mins in a shop but not in school. It's not logical.

The things they're doing will not control the virus (have been shown not to by now, in fact). You can't have masks piecemeal, or social distancing piecemeal, especially once there is widespread community transmission, which there is now in many parts of the UK.

I think we're leaderless to be honest. The job ad I posted on the last thread - that is not the sign of a government in control of the pandemic.
They've got everything wrong, they haven't planned, have given vast sums of money to unqualified private for-profit companies ill equipped to deliver results. The communication has been dismal.

Having said all that, I am still perplexed how so many people are willing to argue endlessly that masks in school will 'harm children' or 'harm education' when one thing covid has shown us is that our children have a shit education anyway compared to a lot of Europe, with massive class sizes and underinvestment. How throwing teachers under the bus and making them stressed and demoralised will help the recruitment crisis I don't know, either. All these people who are so against masks seemingly are fine with massive class sizes, stressed and overburdened teachers, and their children having to be in and out of school like yo-yos. It's just so strange.

I am very clear at this point that I do not understand the majority of human beings. Evidence doesn't seem to matter...... so I am grateful for this thread!

I feel the same!
Frazzled2207 · 06/10/2020 16:22

being positive for a moment though numbers of tests is increasing towards 300k (has only gone about 200k in the last 4 weeks) so some of those extra numbers will be from for example uni testing where they just find more cases.
Also although 30th to the 2nd look very high it looks like it might have come down a bit or at least be flattening since then (although I know there will be more numbers from the last days to add on in time)

ceeveebee · 06/10/2020 16:22

This is an excellent chart (it’s animated so I have linked rather than screenshot)
twitter.com/rp131/status/1313498170891137024?s=21

wintertravel1980 · 06/10/2020 16:22

Clearly with the amended data we are following Whitty and Valences model.

Not quite. Whitty/Vallance's scenario shows 25,000 cases on October 6.

Frazzled2207 · 06/10/2020 16:22

i suppose we should be pleased they found the extra missing tests from the 28th

PrayingandHoping · 06/10/2020 16:23

@rosesbloom Hancock said yesterday the new plan (poss the leaked 3 tier one??) would be announced shortly

PrayingandHoping · 06/10/2020 16:24

Will be interested when the clever people can tell us what dates today's numbers allocate to....?

Also any idea of hospital death numbers today? The tues are often higher from community/care home catch ip?

CoffeeandCroissant · 06/10/2020 16:27

"Last 5 days of hospital occupancy in the North West: 676, 725, 816, 889, 996.

208 admissions alone today, a huge new record."

"England totals: 1995, 2088, 2194, 2329, 2593, 2783.

478 admissions today (most since 3rd June)."
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1313498424709447681

PatriciaHolm · 06/10/2020 16:31

@PrayingandHoping

Will be interested when the clever people can tell us what dates today's numbers allocate to....?

Also any idea of hospital death numbers today? The tues are often higher from community/care home catch ip?

The website will do that for you - see attached for England.

Hospital deaths today in England were 50 - last Tuesday was 47.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22
Frazzled2207 · 06/10/2020 16:34

as far as I can tell there is still definitely some catch up data isn't there? Daily new cases seem to be perhaps 11-12 I think not 14-15

PrayingandHoping · 06/10/2020 16:34

Oh thank you @PatriciaHolm I've not found that! I will go look again!