Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Here in SE London we have TFL red buses with signs explaining that they are for the use of school children .And that all seats may be occupied .

So ,no social distancing ,mask wearing left to peer support or the opposite . Groups from different schools mixing .

Marvellous .

Timeforanotherusername I agree and I'm in Edinburgh, where positive test rate continues to be over 15%
I think hospitality will become increasingly risky as the weather gets colder, as wee places ( like the one I work in ) don't have any form of air conditioning, but have been relying on keeping the doors/ windows open. Which obviously makes it cold. So there's increasing temptation to decrease ventilation to try and keep the place warm and stop customers complaining, right at the time when there's a higher chance of a infected being on the premises.

Infected person being... although infected being works I suppose

Peri i'm not in Scotland but I am from Glasgow area so my friends and family will be directly impacted.

I actually think that the weather is already a significant factor.

Cases are not as bad where I am. Our weather is so much better here.

Although a cold dry winter would possibly be better than a really dreich one.

I think individual liberties can be curtailed for the common good. Meaning that if masks are proven to reduce transmission in a global pandemic than it is not up to the individual to decide to wear it or not, but up to the gov to enforce it. Because it is not about the individual at that point, but about the society.

Agreed. Many parts of the US now have universal masks worn (yes, you can probably guess which bits) so it's not impossible to get people who aren't used to doing it.

There are a lot of parents and children who would be DELIGHTED to have their kids wear masks at schools (and teachers, of course). I think it's frankly unreasonable to have some degree of avoidable deaths just to not wear masks in schools - and this will happen. We are consigning some children to be bereaved just so we can avoid wearing masks - it's outrageous.

We can argue about numbers, but some kids will lose parents or teachers because the majority won't wear a thin piece of fabric over nose and mouth for the school day while inside? Really? I guess that's who we are as a society - I notice that S Korea still has less than 500 deaths. Without lockdown.

As far as buy-in to the need for precautions is concerned, isn't one problem the widespread mistaken belief that, if we made no changes and covid therefore spread widely, the only people who would suffer are those who are medically vulnerable to covid itself?

That's giving quite a few people the idea that all this really is all only happening to protect these 'others', and that they themselves won't benefit at all - despite the fact that, with out of control exponential spread beyond a certain point, the bad effects (social, economic, health and mental health) will go far beyond the known medically vulnerable groups.

Has this message got through enough (and equally in different geographical areas), that, yes we can have a certain amount of covid circulating and know only those 'others' need to worry, but that too much will be bad for everyone, in direct and indirect ways? And that it can go up very, very fast?

@Quarantino I a still miles behind and someone may have already posted, but I think Sutton Bonnington has an agricultural college or some such.

Mine and my daughter's school in Italy has made masks mandatory, and of only one of two types. No mask, no school. They can remove them once seated at their SD'd desks.
There was a hoohah last week when it was noted that once they're out of the school gate, the masks come off, but the kids hang around, so the Mayor has now closed off the roads round the school at home time and put police there to disperse the kids and make them keep the masks on till they've done so.
I'm glad. Whatever it takes.
We're expecting Conte to make masks mandatory all hours out of doors later today.

As far as buy-in to the need for precautions is concerned, isn't one problem the widespread mistaken belief that, if we made no changes and covid therefore spread widely, the only people who would suffer are those who are medically vulnerable to covid itself?

Yes, and rather a nasty attitude along the lines of "they don't matter anyway".

Did they get 'buy-in' before they introduced masks in shops?

Given how desperate people are to have schools stay open, masks at least seems a no-brainer. Kids wear masks or there will be no school (I suspect this will be true in many places anyway sooner or later, the way numbers are increasing).

Good grief : the SNP MP also attended church after having had her test!

Is she just astonishingly thick??

Ilove I don't necessarily disagree with you re masks.

BUT I would say at least 50% of parents at our school do not wear them at drop off / pick up. That rule has been in place since 1st day back yet still they are unable to comply.

Some may have valid reasons but not that many and its literally a couple of minutes.

I don't like wearing them so I limit going to the shops and we tend to do online shopping

I can limit non essential things so I don't need to wear a mask. School is essential though so they would have to wear them.

And when you have so many adults throwing their toys out of the pram how can you expect kids to wear them.

Masks are worn on buses and in the communal areas of my large FE college. On the whole it's working well. Senior managers patrol at lunch times to try and check that bubbles remain in place and that masks are worn. I must have passed well over 300 students today and only three needed to be challenged

@Piggywaspushed

Good grief : the SNP MP also attended church after having had her test!

Is she just astonishingly thick??

I would be interested to know what her symptoms were, and if she was caught out by thinking that if she had a runny nose it probably wasn't covid, it's cold season anyway, it's silly we're testing all these colds, tests are in short supply and I clearly haven't got covid, etc.

Maybe I'm being too generous, but the only way I can really imagine an MP doing that knowing how easy it would be to be caught if they did turn out to be positive, is if they really, really believed there was no way what they had could be covid. I'd be interested to know what might have fed into that belief, if so.

On mask wearing: I’d happily put my DC in masks and they wear them in shops etc already - but I’d be interested to know if there is any research on the effectiveness of masks when taken on and off in a non-sterile environment (including being stuffed into pockets, swapped with their friends, dropped on the floor before putting back on etc) as that’s what I predict would be happening. My 8 yo DS can’t even remember to bring his jumpers home every day, remembering to treat masks correctly is highly unlikely

We're expecting Conte to make masks mandatory all hours out of doors later today.

Outdoor masks did not make any meaningful difference in Spain or France.

My view is that we need to focus on things that really matter. Outdoor settings, fomites, brief contacts in shops, etc all appear to be low risk.

The real problems are super spreading events and transmissions in indoor settings.

My friend's parents have both been tested positive for COVID earlier today. She lives in London - they are in the North. They have been extremely careful - wiped out shopping, quarantined mail, wore masks, complied with all the rules, etc. However, a week ago they attended a small family event (allowed under the Rule of Six). Everyone was feeling well but one of the family members had a minor "tickle in the throat."

3 people at the family gathering (my friend's parents + another relative) have now caught COVID. The initial spreader developed symptoms the next day but is now feeling better.

The two people who appear to be uninfected so far are a young teenager and an 80+ year old grandmother.

@Witchend

As far as buy-in to the need for precautions is concerned, isn't one problem the widespread mistaken belief that, if we made no changes and covid therefore spread widely, the only people who would suffer are those who are medically vulnerable to covid itself?

Yes, and rather a nasty attitude along the lines of "they don't matter anyway".

I don't think we can do anything about that attitude though. At one end of the spectrum there are probably a few people who are fundamentally a bit callous and unempathetic. At the other end, a few people who are genuinely so desperate right now that they will accept almost anything to solve their own problems, which they wouldn't in normal circumstances. Most people unhappy with the current restrictions and not trying to follow them will be somewhere in between. What I would say they all have in common though, is a belief that covid could be allowed to spread more than it is now, before it would hurt them personally (or hurt them more than the covid restrictions are hurting them). But I think many are underestimating both how much harm covid could cause when out of control, and how fast things could reach that out of control stage. If they appreciated that, I don't think their view of the value of vulnerable people's lives would even be relevant.

@Sunshinegirl82

I suppose the issue is, would a longer lockdown in the NE have made a substantial difference? I am not sure whether continued increasing restrictions would have/are actually making that much difference. To my mind a key issue seems to be that a significant group of people have disengaged. Even if we went into a full national lockdown now would it make a substantial difference in those areas?

It would have done if it had been a continuation of the strict lockdown for another 3 or 4 weeks. Much harder now because despite the restrictions on socialising etc, so much more it still open and people have got used to doing more over the summer. We lifted the first lockdown too early!

@eeeyoresmiles
I only half agree. Social attitudes are developed over time and are very highly influenced by official (on/x level up) communication and mass media.
Just look at qanon phenomena. Imagine that "power" to be used for good.
But on the so called good side people are still adhering to some moral code, when the other side (the idiots - not by my standards, but proven by believing in bullshit) has no such reservations, Look at Biden/Trump. Biden called back all attack ads when trump got covid. What did he do: used the hospitalization to his advantage and put a spin on it. Absolutely no moral qualms about it.

People wanting others to wear masks still believe that persuasion and logic and explanation (over and over again) will help convince them. The other side? They don't want to convince anyone, they attack and invoke their rights to whatever suits them... It's not a fair fight and anyone with a moral compass has already lost the battle before it began.

@IloveJKRowling

I agree in principal, but without mandatory masks and good ventilation I just think -atm- it is a huge lab where our kids are the rats. Put in masks (at least in secondary) and half the class sizes and I'll champion it on every forum possible.

Where my logic fails to to see the point is that we are doing restrictions on one side and then letting it all go to waste by not letting hordes (sorry) mingle without any preventive measures. The fact that 150 kids are in one "bubble" doesn't constitute as a preventive measure really with teachers walking across them freely.

Agree 100%

Masks cost next to nothing and would result in LESS disrupted education overall for children.

So many children in the UK are suffering with mental health because of having to isolate, in school one day, out the next, no proper work for when isolating. It's far worse than something consistent with proper mitigation. Like my friend's child in the US who is in school half time, masked (he's 5) and socially distanced all the time, and then good online provision the other half.

Schools WON'T stay open, no matter how good it is for children, if there is no mitigation and community levels are high and test and trace too slow to clamp down on clusters - the current data shows that schools are causing transmission. Too many teachers will be sick or isolating for schools to be 'open' in any meaningful sense.

I agree with this. I think that here in the NW, secondary schools should be on a blended learning ( only half in at one time) now until at least Christmas. There needs to be some way of ensuring that the out of school groups are at home working though, not out and about meeting up with friends.

@BigChocFrenzy

The current situation is still providing more education for kids than pt school would, especially the most disadvantaged and also allowing parents to work more

Some areas have been hard hit, but in most the kids are getting far more days ar school than if the class were split into 2 or 3
Many parents simply cannot supervise their children to engage in school at home, even if an mc minority can

More children, even primary school age, would just be left locked indoors alone, or roaming the streets

Big Choc, I'm not sure I agree. If students were regularly in and out of school on a rote, they would still be seeing teachers regularly and getting in feedback on the work they had done at home ( it having to account for not having done it). There would be a significant advantage in class in having more one to one support because classes would be half sized and teachers would actually be able to plan a proper progression through the syllabus which is impossible when different groups of students and teachers are off self isolating in a random pattern.

They could make masks fun and more appealing.
I posted the other day the shark mouth mask I've bought. Here's another two on my shopping list. Children (and adults) could be encouraged to personalise theirs. Perhaps even taught how to make them in class (useful sewing skills as a plus).
www.zazzle.co.uk/black_lab_lovers_cloth_face_mask-256414312528029251

www.zazzle.co.uk/elephant_cloth_mask-256943352555760870

@EducatingArti
I think that some kind of rota system could be in an answer in areas where the virus is most prevalent but it wouldn't stop kids having to take two weeks off to isolate (which might mean no school for a month) although you would hope that would happen less often. However it would be a big ask of teachers to simultaneously teach and also keep happy half the class at home at any point.

A teacher friend works in a sixth form college and the rota system is working well. Half the kids in one week, other half the next. All classes broadcast on zoom (or other platform not sure which) so nobody misses out and everyone is at the same place. But these are teenagers doing alevels - no way would this be as straightforward in a normal primary or secondary.

@Witchend

As far as buy-in to the need for precautions is concerned, isn't one problem the widespread mistaken belief that, if we made no changes and covid therefore spread widely, the only people who would suffer are those who are medically vulnerable to covid itself?

Yes, and rather a nasty attitude along the lines of "they don't matter anyway".

Yes unfortunately this is it.

There needs to be a widespread awareness campaign - spelt out in very simple blunt terms. Unfortunately the government encouraged the Othering (inadvertently or not) with their ill thought out 'Don't kill granny' campaign.

They need to get it out there about the economic risks (perhaps noting how the countries who've dealt with Covid have healthier economires).

They need to explain in simple impossible to misunderstood language the knock-on effects on society - economic, social.

Long Covid needs to be highlighted too. This is a potential risk to everyone - and this is what needs to be emphasised.

*economies