Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Schools are obviously not Covid secure, so the authorities should stop pretending
and just say that the great benefits to the children and to many working parents outweigh the risk

AND
Put in resources to make it as safe as possible for ft
e.g. budget for professional cleaners on site, hygeine supplies,
supply teachers & TAs so ECV staff can WFH

AND
change rules:
Allow all staff to optionally wear masks, transparent ones where appropriate
Make it mandatory for kids to show proof of a negative test before being allowed back
ECV staff and kids to optionally stay home

@TheSunIsStillShining I agree with you, I feel like we are using our entire "risk budget" sending DD to school so barely do anything else.

@IloveJKRowling you are also right, how long before we are in the situation of schools closing due to unsafe ratios (as they were back in March).

"It is unrealistic to have the same rules for a deprived and a private secondary"

imo, Private schools should be allowed to mostly make their own rules about mask, pt / online learning etc because:

• the government doesn't own them
• p[aying parents have far more power to get what they need from schools
• parents are on average on higher income with resources for online / pt school
• govt rules should be that the few in private schools on lower income must be given what they need to access the same education as others by the school

Totally agree with you here @BigChocFrenzy

I would feel far more comfortable if they admitted they're not covid secure.

The issue I can also see is if larger numbers are asymptomatic, it could be rife in schools before it was even picked up as 2 cases.
So let's say Child A has it asymptomatically. Passes it to 5 classmates, one of whom gets a test and is positive, between them they've pass it to another 10, 4 of whom have symptoms, 2 are dismissed by parents as "just a normal cold", 1 parent ignores it because they have to go to work, so tells the school it's negative/sends them anyway telling them not to cough...
You've got 16 children who now have it, and only 2 positive tests.

And no, schools round here are only sending home "desk partners" and close contacts not closing the whole bubble. They're not even sending home siblings from what I understand.

[quote Nquartz]@TheSunIsStillShining I agree with you, I feel like we are using our entire "risk budget" sending DD to school so barely do anything else.

@IloveJKRowling you are also right, how long before we are in the situation of schools closing due to unsafe ratios (as they were back in March).[/quote]
...
"I feel like we are using our entire "risk budget" sending DD to school so barely do anything else. "

That is a sensible way to proceed if you are being cautious

Work and school are essential; other things excl medical are not

I don't understand why no masks - as that's easy to do without any new space or having to go pt and will avoid the disruption of bubbles closing so often and also the disruption of very ill or dead teachers, parents or ECV children (masks reduce viral load leading to milder disease too).

I also don't understand why schools which COULD do SD and small class sizes with a few extra TAs (my DD1s school could and did in June/July) aren't being funded to do so. Surely maximising the mitigation makes sense?

They could also use community spaces, like in Italy - which also doesn't require pt and is going to reduce school closures by allowing more SD. I know two villages that have offered the village halls (already used for school events) for free and DfE says no - why?

We are still doing most of the things we have always done to be fair. Mainly around kids and their normal activities.

So possibly exceeding our risk budget.

BUT if we go out for the day we try and go somewhere we can be outside.

And most importantly in my opinion, we are not socialising. Its easier for us as we are away from family, but really our lives are OK at moment.

Our area is impacted less than many others though. So if things get worse then we would likely adjust our activities.

Ilove we have loads of primaries around us. 4 in a very small area and others close by. The 4 primaries have 9 classes per year groups.

There is simply not the space or the staff

We are in a city which has a much lower population density than many.

In June our school managed to get very few Reception, Y1 and more Y6 in as well as key workers children.

They were full and could take no more.

It sounds as if you were really fortunate.

@IloveJKRowling

I don't understand why no masks - as that's easy to do without any new space or having to go pt and will avoid the disruption of bubbles closing so often and also the disruption of very ill or dead teachers, parents or ECV children (masks reduce viral load leading to milder disease too).

I also don't understand why schools which COULD do SD and small class sizes with a few extra TAs (my DD1s school could and did in June/July) aren't being funded to do so. Surely maximising the mitigation makes sense?

They could also use community spaces, like in Italy - which also doesn't require pt and is going to reduce school closures by allowing more SD. I know two villages that have offered the village halls (already used for school events) for free and DfE says no - why?

.... Why no masks ?

Insufficient parental buy-in
Problems sanctioning large numbers of children for mask refusal / acting up
(a court case in Germany stated sending home a mask refuser was illegal, which basically stopped mask wearing at schools that state - NordRheinWestphalia iirc)

It would make sense to fund extra staff to have smaller classes, if schools can still remain ft

Ditto extra rooms, although I suspect DfE are worried abour safety measures
In practice, there are only sufficent extra rooms in halls, churches etc for a tiny number of schools

Also, the DfE would want to avoid a widening gap - and resentment - between schools who can take these measures and those who can't

@BigChocFrenzy

"It is unrealistic to have the same rules for a deprived and a private secondary"

imo, Private schools should be allowed to mostly make their own rules about mask, pt / online learning etc because:

• the government doesn't own them
• p[aying parents have far more power to get what they need from schools
• parents are on average on higher income with resources for online / pt school
• govt rules should be that the few in private schools on lower income must be given what they need to access the same education as others by the school

And yet they are not allowed. Local Authorities have control over them. What they can do is defer from the curriculum. We are now in a position that although paying we are not getting jack. Plus the school is being forced to provide evidence that my kid is not neglected/is still learning. Getting on with homework/prep is not enough, they want attendance evidence.

@TheSunIsStillShining

BCF Okay, I get your point. In the UK class sizes are around 25-32. Even in an elite private school class sizes are 20-22. And they have a brand new building. With small rooms.

I would say that there should be options based on school cohort, instrument availability, etc. It is unrealistic to have the same rules for a deprived and a private secondary.

Elite private schools are mostly not in brand new buildings.... they are prob in the oldest buildings in the country! Often in buildings surrounding cathedrals etc which are 100s of years old. Far from purpose built, little ventilation and yes the class sizes are small but so are the rooms

They have their own set of problems.

I am going to get flamed...
I think individual liberties can be curtailed for the common good. Meaning that if masks are proven to reduce transmission in a global pandemic than it is not up to the individual to decide to wear it or not, but up to the gov to enforce it. Because it is not about the individual at that point, but about the society.
This is a very slippery slope I know, but with careful consideration I think there are measures that could and should be enforced.

@PrayingandHoping
sorry, i was not clear: our school has a brand new building. And even this is not enough.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I am going to get flamed... I think individual liberties can be curtailed for the common good. Meaning that if masks are proven to reduce transmission in a global pandemic than it is not up to the individual to decide to wear it or not, but up to the gov to enforce it. Because it is not about the individual at that point, but about the society. This is a very slippery slope I know, but with careful consideration I think there are measures that could and should be enforced.

.... We are not China with an army and secret police to keep everyone in line

Without overwhelming support, masks in schools or anywhere else can't be enforced in practice,
however good a measure they would be

But others disagree, and you have to balance it, if enough people disagree, then you'll lose all measures from them.

It comes down to There was a feeling of being in it together, which is not the case now. Sorry not data! which is I think a mistake in that original feeling, lots of people didn't feel in it together. They simply agreed that making some changes for the vulnerable was reasonable. The vulnerable (and scared) may have felt that everyone was in it together, but others weren't feeling that at all - they just accepted the need.

I'm a lurker on this thread and just wanted to add re schools - our primary was closed yesterday for a week due to positive cases in year 6 and too many teachers being contacted to isolate so there aren't enough teachers for school to stay open for the other years.

I am in Leeds and feeling very vulnerable with rising cases and having to send two children to cramped, full classrooms every day. After school club is also running, so what exactly is the point in bubbles? Also lots of staff are parents, with children in different classes to them, so I feel it is all a bit of a shambles really.

There talk of a circuit breaker lockdown for Scotland. Announcement tomorrow. I think it might take the form of shutting hospitality for 2 to 3 weeks, coinciding with the last opportunity to use furlough. Possibly only affecting the Central Belt, which includes Glasgow and Edinburgh. Could be the whole country and include more business types and activities. Wonder if it will also include travel restrictions.
October school holidays have already started in some council areas. Some have the traditional 2 week tattie holiday, Edinburgh doesn't start till the 19th.

On the odd 28th September figures, Scotland also recorded a low of 222, but a high of 806 the following day.

Ha, Nicola Sturgeon has just announced that there will be no national travel ban and no order to stay at home in the restrictions to be announced tomorrow...so hospitality or no meeting up with non household members?

@BigChocFrenzy - re your measures for schools that is in effect ( bar being able to require tests) is what is happening in our school ( and it’s a borough with a Conservative council).

The main challenge is being able to cover for teachers that want to wfh ( although all of our teachers have chosen to come in - some on a very limited basis as they build confidence). And it becomes more difficult to support learning for children who choose not to come in as teachers become stretched (although again all vulnerable children are currently choosing to attend school - some with some adjustments).

@Perihelion so restaurants and pubs close? Will they go takeaway only?

What about leisure like swimming pools etc?

800 new positive tests, with 13.2% of newly tested positive. 2 deaths.
No National travel ban, there there could be local travel restrictions. No school closures.

Praying and hoping I think it could be like Aberdeen, where hospitality was shut apart from takeaway. Have no idea about leisure facilities, full announcement tomorrow.

Perihelion I do think the circuit breaker should just be central belt.

I know there is a lot of anger than Aberdeen got locked down but Glasgow not.

Aberdeen cases and cases in many areas are very low so there is no justification for a lockdown.

Sounds sensible

Will be interesting what they do with leisure and shopping etc