Why are we in lockdown when no one is dying?

[SplunkPostGres]

I don’t understand why we’ve got local lockdown again. Cases are high but deaths are still low. Seems like a lot of cases are asymptomatic? So why are the lockdowns and restrictions needed?

[quote MJMG2015]@AlecTrevelyan006

Jesus. What an attitude. Thankfully most of us do think deaths matter.[/quote]
do all 1,600 daily deaths matter? Or just the covid ones?

Isn't 13 deaths enough!!!
So your not allowed in peoples homes big deal, I is not a lock down, you can still go out!!!!
I hate selfish posts like this.

@SplunkPostGres
totally agree - one reason may be that the government have done such a good job of spreading project fear that they believe it themselves.

None of us can be a 100% sure when the experts don't agree BUT just as many experts agree with you (and me) as agree with the ones the govt have chosen to push on us and very very few agree with the Witty and Valance combo - those 2 are on a very dangerous (to us) power trip (if you read anything by their former colleagues). But then again, they have large amounts invested in the vaccine industry so may be understandable.

Someone earlier mentioned Shipman. Well now is an amazing time for anyone who wants to emulate or even beat his death toll - a doctor puts CV19 on a death cert and it goes straight through, no need for any autopsy.

I'm not arguing with anyone on here that CV19 is not a fatal illness in some people. Luckily more and more are waking up to the fact that it is just one of the many things that can kill us and that for many people the reaction to Covid has been far more detrimental than Covid itself.

I reiterate. The experts don't agree so anyone on here saying that they are right and others are wrong is fooling themselves. No one has the total answer, and I know who makes the most sense to me, whilst fully accepting that there is a possibility I am wrong. I choose to believe it's a low possibility - you are entitled to make up your own mind but you cannot prove me wrong.

I agree OP. It’s madness.

@AlecTrevelyan006 yes I know because the positive tests at present are mostly in a younger demographic less likely to be hospitalised but this feeds back into more at risk groups. This is evident from countries such as Israel /France etc

We are now in a similar position to where we were February. We didn’t know then as no testing. We only tested v sick in March so we’re seeing fuse lit earlier that’s all.

300+ deaths per day from smoking-related diseases haven’t led to any government banning smoking

There are 450 cancer deaths per day on average.

There were 1200+ deaths from flu last week

I’d like the news and government bulletins to put Covid deaths (not cases) in their proper context.

@gypsywater

"as long at the number of deaths is at an acceptable level and as long as the NHS is not overwhelmed then it doesn't really matter"

This is one of the worst things I have ever seen on MN. A new low.

well, Sir Patric Vallance is on record as saying that 20,000 deaths would be a 'good outcome'

the principle is the same

at some point, once you accept that the number of deaths is going to be above zero then you have to decide what is an 'acceptable' number of deaths

@AlecTrevelyan006

That 1600 would be a hell of a lot higher if our hospital wards and ICUs are full of Covid, there will be no room for anything else. No operations able to take place because all the theatre recovery rooms are converted back into makeshift ICUs. No-where for people to go after a road traffic accident/major trauma because the ICU beds are full of Covid. No chemo/radiotherapy due to lack of staff who are ill/isolating. Sound familiar? Why the hell would people want to go back to March? We need to contain this now.

@covidity where were the 1200 deaths from flu last week?

I have a lot of sympathy for the unhappiness and frustration and pain of people who are in difficult circumstances and further restricted by covid guidelines. But the hospitalisations are rising sharply - tripling, week on week, was the last I saw - and my understanding is that 20-25% of hospitalised patients may die. I hope this link posts with the current data:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
So I support the abundance-of-caution approach, even though it is causing my family various forms of inconvenience and unhappiness.

@covidity No-one tested positive for influenza in the past week, how did 1200 die?? assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf

do all 1,600 daily deaths matter? Or just the covid ones?

The Covid ones can be prevented. The others can't, at least not with action that can be taken in a matter of days.

Maybe we shouldn't bother preventing Covid deaths?

The 13 people who died will have contracted Covid just before the real spike. In the next week or two the people who've contracted it during the spike, will start dying. Will that satisfy you, OP?

Seriously, I'm fed up of hearing this for the last two or three weeks. "Well no-one's dying". Of course not many have yet. It takes 3-4 weeks to die of Covid. They don't do it the day after the spike starts.

13 deaths were reported today but daily deaths fluctuate. So when looking at trends it's normally better to look at the rolling (or moving) average.

Current 7-day moving average (i.e. if you take the mean of the last 7 days of reported deaths) is 30. It was half that (at 14) on Sept 17 (11 days ago) and half that (at 7) 13 days earlier on Sept 4.

So deaths are increasing and the rate they are increasing at is also increasing. If that trend continues it we have exponential growth. Current growth is slower than it was back in March when it was doubling every 2-3 days, so the restircitions we have in place have a significant impact but they aren't sufficient to keep it from spreading faster. If not stopped, even though the rate of increase is slower, it still leads to an overwhelmed NHS and huge numbers of deaths.

have a look at worldometer - loads of countries are experiencing the same phenomenon of cases rising but death rate virtually unchanged, regardless of the restrictions imposed (or not)

it's a virus doing what a virus does

People are not dying because a lot of people vulnerable to dying from covid are already dead.
Thats why the 5year average for deaths was up for a while then went under previous years numbers.
If you died in march or april; you cant die in july or August because you're already dead.

A career in government awaits. OP seems perfectly qualified.

The number of people on ventilators for covid has almost tripled in the last fortnight. The deaths are coming.

But the mad thing is that latest Public Health data states the biggest reason for the increase in numbers is schools and colleges , followed by work. Apparently pubs and restaurants only accounted for 3% of outbreaks so why are we putting curfews on pubs but carrying on with schools . If we were serious about reducing numbers we would go back to online learning for schools, colleges and unis. Instead the govt is using half baked measures which will neither allow us to enjoy life or significantly reduce infections.

Had covid 6 weeks ago, no health issues, am 40. Yesterday I went for a walk in the park and as a result I'm having chest pains. It's to stop other people experiencing this too, some whose bodies won't be able to take it

What short memories there are! Remember what it was like earlier this year with hospitals full, NHS staff dying, care homes with many deaths.

That is the case no longer, thank goodness - but it is only like this BECAUSE of the measures that were taken; and because of the new "softer" measures that are being taken to prevent us returning to that.

The rise in cases is a warning sign - if we do nothing that will translate in to deaths further down the line in the course of time.

I cannot believe that so far on from the start of the pandemic people are still asking these questions.

OP - have you worked it out yet?

Completely disproportionate measures, government are incompetent.

I agree with you OP (I'm also in S.Wales.) Even if it's not officially called lockdown, if it involves face masks, social distancing and a limit on the number of people you can see, then to me that's lockdown (aka not normal life!!)

@Wimbledon99

I agree op. Posters saying because the virus is so contentious...well my DH had the virus no one else in our family caught it and we took no measures to prevent it in the family home. My grandma also tested Positive but my grandad didn't and neither did my aunt who is her carer

Or.... most likely....you caught it and were asymptomatic and you spread it to other people outside your household because you didn't follow gov advice about isolating?