Why are we in lockdown when no one is dying?

[SplunkPostGres]

I don’t understand why we’ve got local lockdown again. Cases are high but deaths are still low. Seems like a lot of cases are asymptomatic? So why are the lockdowns and restrictions needed?

It's to try and hide the fact that the NHS has been so badly managed a s financed it can't cope with more than the bare minimum of ill people

I do agree with this. Our NHS struggles to cope most Winters. Our nation is not a healthy one. Our contact tracing and testing is not up to it.

For once they are being preventative rather than reactive.

People complained restrictions were put in too late. Should have come in way before it reached the level it did.

Now they are complaining they are put in too early and basically saying wait till more die then do something about it.

OP do you understand the concept of a lag? There's a lag between a positive test and being ill enough to be hospitalised (about two weeks), then a further lag between being hospitalised and dying (a further week). Average figures.

So, and maybe read this slowly, more positive tests today mean more hospitalisations in two weeks, and guess what - more deaths a week later.

So what action do you think we should take now, to reduce the number of deaths in three weeks time?

[quote Oaktree55]@bumbleymummy would you prefer £1 million pounds today or 1pence doubling every day for a month?

That’s the same way this virus spreads given no restrictions. We’re at 32pence which is why people don’t understand the restrictions but give it a few more weeks of free reign. It ends up being over £5million by day 30.

That’s what we’re dealing with. Think of it in those terms. If you’re still not convinced then google Brazil look at bodies in street, quickly dug mass graves and that’s what we’d be dealing with it we all go back to normal.[/quote]
deaths aren't doubling

the number of daily positive cases has been increasing since the beginning of July - the number of daily deaths has barely changed at all

I'm in an area with restrictions.
Cases are still rising rapidly. It's reported that local 'lockdown' isn't working.

But do we know how much cases would rise without restrictions?

If there was no immunity, then this would make sense. Figures now i.e high number of cases and low deaths would have been welcomed back in the early days of herd-immunity strategy. But if there’s no immunity and infection damage just gets successively worse each time the virus is contracted, then you could understand why they’re tanking the economy.

The areas where there are extra restrictions are less to do with raw numbers and more to do with how fast those numbers are changing. County Durham has been tagged onto the northeast area and in a week, our infection rate has doubled from 45-ish to 91. Newcastle's has tripled. The restrictions are bloody tough because people can't spend time with their loved ones but seeing the way that a really badly affected ward in South Shields has started to recover it gives me hope that we can avoid getting back to a situation where it is out of control, lots of people are dying and lots more people's jobs and livelihoods are under threat than is already the case. (because the economy is people's jobs, livelihoods and general ability to fund their lives and absolutely worth protecting)

Why are so many people here so deliberately obtuse about the fact that these restrictions were never either to save lives from Covid or to eradicate Covid? It's always been about trying to protect the NHS from being overrun so that people with all other illnesses have a chance to be saved and continue with treatment. The only reason we managed so far is because of lockdown and even with that many hospitals suspended or slowed down treatment for other conditions due to lack of space or covid unsafe environments (cancer patients terribly at risk from Covid and it was rife through hospitals.)

Please read the thread from NHS staff on this board at the moment and rethink what you are saying.

Always interests me that these threads about 'only so many people dying' are on Sundays and Mondays when it's very well documented that figures are low due to weekend reporting, yet people use the low figures as emotional arguments in their very well worn and somewhat tedious script.

Really, is it so difficult to understand? Numbers were climbing exponentially of a novel virus with no immunity in the population. We locked down, it helped. They're climbing again, we are putting down some restrictions. No doubt if numbers fall again people will use this as a shrill cry out against any restrictions at all 'because the numbers are low.'

It's baffling.

@AlecTrevelyan006

ICU admissions have tripled in a fortnight! Can you not see that this will lead to deaths increasing??

I agree - we need to learn to live with this and start going back to normal regardless of how many cases there are - if death rates start to climb maybe reassess but at the moment it is a massive overreaction because Boris got sick.

I agree with you OP. It is mad.

Because covid infection and death is exponential and we need to be proactive before it goes out of control then we end up in Lockdown like in March.
What we have not is not a lockdown, it’s restrictions. We can go to work and kids can go to school.

Because they haven't sorted track and trace, or the implimented much of an any use despite knowing cases were bound to rise in autumn. And only covid matters.

the number of daily positive cases has been increasing since the beginning of July - the number of daily deaths has barely changed at all

There are plenty of vulnerable people still voluntarily shielding. Or at the very least keeping social contact to an absolute minimum. Not sure care homes are open either. Once the virus is back in the community it's only a matter of time before it gets passed to the more vulnerable among us. Yes, we have a better idea of treatment now, and the need to get people to hospital sooner than they were being taken at the start of lockdown. So that will minimise deaths. BUT, to go all Jon Snow, winter is coming, and that will exacerbate things with people getting sick with flu and bad chest infections. Add in Covid, and it could get quite nasty.

My city is locked down (local lockdown).

There are no Covid patients in our ICU. Not one. There are Covid patients in the ordinary wards. The large majority have been there over 14 days ie are not part of a ‘riding tide of cases’.

My ex is a hospital dr in the city - which is where I got this from. He’s pretty baffled.

[quote Sweetnhappy1]@AlecTrevelyan006

ICU admissions have tripled in a fortnight! Can you not see that this will lead to deaths increasing??[/quote]
yeah it will probably will - that's because coronavirus is very nasty for some people

but as long at the number of deaths is at an acceptable level and as long as the NHS is not overwhelmed then it doesn't really matter

the vast majority of people who catch coronavirus will suffer none or only mild symptoms and even among the most vulnerable groups you are far more likely to survive than not

I feel there should be some restrictions to try and stop a repeat of March/April.
However a year ago social isolation especially among older people living on their own, was a real concern and a problem that need to be addressed.....now leaving old and vulnerable people alone in their homes is supposedly the answer to a different problem....

@CovidHalloween

Because covid infection and death is exponential and we need to be proactive before it goes out of control then we end up in Lockdown like in March. What we have not is not a lockdown, it’s restrictions. We can go to work and kids can go to school.

many, many people cannot go to work and many, many more will soon be out of work

good luck funding the NHS when we have 15% unemployment and all of that shit that comes with it

What's the point. People don't read the replies, they just keep banging out the same
'Why why why' posts

Read the bloody posts and at least try to educate yourself about exponential growth and the length of time it takes for deaths to occur after testing/admission to hospital

Hospital admission rates are already increasing. The NHS cannot handle loads of Covid cases on top of the usual flu admissions. People will die.

There will be no need to fund the NHS when the staff can't work due to sickness/isolating anyway. This thread is nuts.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Jesus. What an attitude. Thankfully most of us do think deaths matter.

Why is it so hard to grasp? Infection rate is up and increasing further. Hospitalisation rate is on the up. Death rate is on the up.

There is no rocket science involved. Very simple to grasp.

Not sure where you are but I'm in a city with restrictions due to rising cases. In our ICU covid cases are in double figures according to our local newspaper. Confirms what relatives working there have been saying over hte past few weeks, that number of severe cases was going up. I do find it baffling myself why yours doesn't have any.

I live in an area with extra restrictions - pubs / restaurants are take away only etc. It is absolutely the right thing to do - there are too many people who are Boris hating conspiracy theorists, who think they are experts in virology, epidemiology and stats, when in reality they are absolutely clueless. They are carrying on as normal, putting others at risk and then complaining that whole year groups are having to self-isolate and routine hospital appointments are being cancelled.

"as long at the number of deaths is at an acceptable level and as long as the NHS is not overwhelmed then it doesn't really matter"

This is one of the worst things I have ever seen on MN. A new low.