We were doing ok until we opened all the schools....

[Bbq1]

After lockdown was lifted pre September and pubs, restaurants etc were opened we seemed to have a handle on Covid with cases, hospital admissions and deaths all declining fairly steadily. Since we released millions of school aged children and thousands of teachers etc back into the classroom- boom, cases and consequently deaths, are now growing very rapidly again. It didn't take a rocket scientist to work out that this would happen. I work in a school and I have a 15 year old starting his gcse's so I 100% don't want the schools to close but surely there must be a more workable solution? Couldn't schools be one week, one week off for different bubbles or alternate days? Nobody wants schools to shut but surely in the long term if we don't get something safer in place and just continue sending kids and adults in day after day, then eventually they will close again?

Schools, colleges and universities are all lumped together, so it's completely false to blame it on schools.

I don't know what the answer is, but shutting schools is categorically not the answer. Children's education is too important to stop again.

Here is the breakdown by type of education establishment, Whatwillsantabring. As you can see, schools dwarf universities and colleges.

Thinking about this more (and rationally) what we would need is, I think, data comparing C-19 positive cases of adults with school age children v adults without school age children. If schools are really responsible for the spreading of the virus then you'd expect to see significantly higher positive cases in people who are exposed to children. (I don't know about anyone else, but out of school, my children only see me and DH at the moment, and they definitely don't kiss, hug, sneeze on, lick, or puke on any other adults, and I would expect that to be broadly true of everyone; so if children are disease vectors then I am statistically more likely to catch it than my childless sister (who actually socialises more, on accout of, you know, having money, time and energy!).

Thanks @noblegiraffe. Where did you find that?

That's depressing.

@WhatWillSantaBring

They are all lumped together but the figures broken down are available from PHE. For the week in question (to 25th) nursery’s and primary / secondary schools made up 87.5% of the total and colleges and universities accounted for 12.5%.

@noblegiraffe
Sorry for the x post.

It's from the PHE surveillance report for last week, What, page 21

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

I expect universities will feature more in next week's report after this weekend!

There are (as I understand it) in England approx:

106 universities
284 FE colleges
4,188 Secondary Schools
20,832 Primary schools

Of course there are more outbreaks in schools than universities and colleges. To be really meaningful we would also need to understand the scale of each outbreak in terms of the number of cases.

I hate it when 'shutting schools is not the answer' is trotted out.

School as it is now in the UK is MORE likely to result in kids being sent home than if they were all SD and using village halls etc.

School without mitigation is MORE LIKELY TO SHUT.

What the hell is wrong with people who can't see this glaringly obvious fact?

Also, how much 'evidence' do we need. There will always be a lag between infections caught in schools and deaths.

Do we really need the 'evidence' of teachers and parents dying before we call for the government to do as literally every other country has done and actually invest in a safer system. And yes, that includes Sweden with their much smaller class sizes.

we would also need to understand the scale of each outbreak in terms of the number of cases.

Or people affected. I'm not sure why 1700 students having to isolate from one uni was headline news, but 1774 kids having to isolate from a school barely even made the local news.

I'm not sure why 1700 students having to isolate from one uni was headline news, but 1774 kids having to isolate from a school barely even made the local news.

I'm wondering this. School outbreaks and children being sent home is like this big unmentionable in the media - meanwhile teachers and ECV/older parents continue to be thrown under the bus. I really wish the unions would call a strike because of unsafe working conditions. I think it might be the only way to get the government to cough up some cash.

The stories about universities are depressingly predictable too focusing on fees etc. Guess what - an 100% online course probably requires more effort from lecturers and tutors (having traditionally taught it face to face in previous years) and - apart from accommodation fees (which I'd fully support refunding) - you're not paying for a 'social life' you're paying for an education which you'll be receiving online or off.

If they refund the fees, how are they supposed to pay for lecturers to deliver online content?

Think this graph is the most compelling with the cause of the current case numbers. Yes cases had been gradually rising for sometime before schools returned and the sudden surge occurred on the 6th September. The graph doesn’t include household transmission so it can pinpoint which areas in the community are making up the figures. As you can see the graph was pretty consistent until week 37.

I'm not sure why 1700 students having to isolate from one uni was headline news, but 1774 kids having to isolate from a school barely even made the local news.

I agree. It is shocking. Teachers are facing hundreds of children a day, without PPE. Thousands of children are being sent home daily to isolate, but nothing is being said.

Also compare the size of the grey to the left when SD was possible in schools to those on the right.

I made the point that "shutting schools is not the answer" because it seems to be the theme of the thread. I think it would be much more helpful to phrase the question as "what can we do in schools to ensure they stay fully open, in the face of rising evidence that they're contributing to the spread of the virus". Is it requisitioning town halls/sports centres and reducing class sizes to 15? Is it asking kids to wear masks all day (even under 11s)?

In the same vein, I think we should also be asking "what can we do to ensure the NHS stays fully open, including for non-urgent ops, for the rest of the pandemic" because again, I think there are too many things falling through the gaps which will have a long term serious effect, if we keep on this same path. I'm not denying that Covid isn't a huge problem, and that we need to stop C-19 deaths, but not if that means increasing the death rate elsewhere.

If kids werent spreading then the size would be the same whether there was 1m in jum jul or 8m now.
It also wouldnt matter whether there was high community numbers.
Interestingly though almost all teachers were in in primary in jun, it was the kids in yrs 2-5 missing. And secondary.

With masks and half in we could have looked like the left.
People prefer their kids to have trillions of gov debt to wearing masks that they honestly dont care about doing. They are actively prevented which is surely criminal especially re teachers. As i think scotland are allowed, ireland or Ni not sure have to wear them.
MH saying long covid also effects young people.
Have a read about the 1918 pandemic there were people with issues from that.
I wore a mask at drop off today neither of my kids cared.
I conclude they wont be able to bring down rates (anywhere?) While schools are open and why would they have needed a 2w circuit break that also shut schools if they make not difference

that we need to stop C-19 deaths, but not if that means increasing the death rate elsewhere

I'm really intrigued as to how this choice plays out.

Say we decide as a society that we need to prioritise other treatment, does that mean turning away critically ill people turning up at A&E with covid-19? Because if infection rates keep rising as they are there will really be no other alternative. And what if it turns out they weren't ill with covid-19 but were having a heart attack or stroke?

I can't see doctors going along with that - to be honest - even if there was a political decision to allow covid-19 deaths to allow for other services to remain more unaffected. It would go against the general ethics of medicine that most doctors adhere to.

In Northern Italy doctors did have to decide to prioritise the younger covid-19 patients as I recall (and probably still suffer the PTSD as a result I'd imagine) but that was once they'd shut down all other non emergency services.

Is there really an appetite in this country to turn people away from A&E in hospitals and NOT shut down non-urgent operations?

Is that really what people want? Even if it impacts on their ability to access A&E too? Say their child falls down the stairs?

That's why it's so unbelievable that the government has put literally no mitigation into schools. Because keeping covid-19 rates at a manageable level really is the only choice.

I think it's too late to do anything other than shut schools now, until testing is sorted out at least and community infections are much lower. It's only a matter of time.

I argued over the summer that masks should be mandatory, at least in secondary, but was told amongst other things that it would be child abuse. Look where we are now. 🤷‍♀️

I argued over the summer that masks should be mandatory, at least in secondary, but was told amongst other things that it would be child abuse. Look where we are now. 🤷‍♀️

And yet in all these countries who have mandatory masks from the age of 6, I'd bet good money that their education will be better and less interrupted, and much less stressful for the children.

My heart sank when I saw that headline in the DM

They're softening us up for another close

The Daily Mail headline is aimed at the 10pm pub curfew, not schools.

@noblegiraffe
That’s the headline at the moment but I can see in the next week or two there will be growing calls for schools to close. I think the only way forward at the moment is to close them all for two or three weeks to stop the spread and then come up with a sustainable plan to reopen. A plan that actually involves schools putting forward ideas that will work this time.

To clarify, involve the schools rather than having the government say what would be happening.