Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

I think it's the pubs and clubs and younger people getting it. That's what the stats are saying 20-30 year olds. Not schools, yet

Surely relaxing restrictions, returning holidaymakers, eat out to help out etc have also all contributed to the surge.

Still think it is too early for the effect of schools opening to be clear. It is expected to increase their rate though isn't? It's just a question of how much.

Schools are obviously going to be part of the reason for increases, but the figures climbed quite steeply in the first week of September. Meaning whatever the cause was, it happened before schools in England went back. That's not to say schools aren't contributing to an uptick in cases now, nor that they won't in future.

The party teachers were at a small outdoor baby shower.

I have seen no evidence that actually proves the party was the source. 3 teachers not at the baby shower also got infected...

The pubs and clubs have to be part of it too, in Ireland the pubs and clubs are still closed. There has been many people socialising at house parties which hasn't helped either.
From what I see lots of people are past caring or taking precautions.

As time foranotheruser and another PP posted/said, Scottish schools started to get a rise in Covid cases and started to run out of tests/ found tests difficult to access.

^Except we clearly have a much worse situation re test availablilty.
^
So, we will know in a few weeks if schools are an issue, the situation as it currently stands isn't looking great.

50% of children are asymptomatic.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53983963

I wouldn’t be surprised if schools are seen as too big of a catalyst to continue as we move into colder months. Perhaps the surge in numbers is part of the plan to close down pubs in exchange to keep schools open.

Either way our numbers are going to explode soon just like many other countries. Lockdown is going to be the only braking system or we take massive concessions such as pubs and gyms closing.

@Piggywaspushed

The party teachers were at a small outdoor baby shower.

I have seen no evidence that actually proves the party was the source. 3 teachers not at the baby shower also got infected...

Yes, what about the inevitable training days the school had around the same time?

I work in a state secondary where the cleaning is being done brilliantly. After each break period the building staff spray every door handle with disinfextant/anti bac.

All pupils hand sannned at the start of every lesson, each pc wiped, desk wiped by the pupil. And then the next pupil and so on.

All staff have been given shields to wear should they wish to.

All doors and windows are open and as the school is on a hill in the country it is v well ventilated.

Pupils required to wear masks in common spaces from the end of September.

This all chimes with what is happening in the private schools my children attend. PPE is provided, perspex screens in the canteen, all food is now in takeaway boxes, singing continues between movable perspex screens so the school choir can keep going.

None of the 3 schools have had any disruption and the private secondary has been back for 13days (sat school) and the state school 11.

We are in a southern county.

I don't think its the schools, I think it is people ignoring the rules with compete disregard for others.

Also multi generational houses in areas where peoele socialise between houses and where people can't afford to isolate or take any time off.

There was no reason eat out would have caused this, table's were cleaned and distanced wherever we ate out.

I suspect a number of people also ignored the quarantine requirements after travel corridors were closed.

Round here bars and nightclubs are busy. Why don’t we have proper booking systems, no walk-ins and a curfew? The spoons pubs are the worst. Total madness. Whereas the schools here have been so sensible with endless cleaning, limited adults in etc

Interesting selection from the Scottish data!

I give you

public.tableau.com/profile/sg.eas.learninganalysis#!/vizhome/COVID19-SchoolsandChildcareInformation/PupilAttendance-TimeSeries

I wouldn’t be surprised if schools are seen as too big of a catalyst to continue as we move into colder months.

The issue is the colder weather. The virus is more passable via air outside when temps are lower; 4oC being perfect.

We will be keeping classrooms as ventilated as possible but cold will restrict this. Lack of ventilation plus 30-35 bodies in one place for hours at a time....

Why then has this massive, massive increase coincided with schools opening?

Because people would have been harbouring symptoms in the couple of weeks prior to the schools returning which have then turned into symptoms a couple of weeks later (the 14/21 day incubation period we were always told of). The majority of schools haven't even been back fully for 2 whole weeks yet so if schools were to blame the children would have had to of caught it on the first day or two (or more likely, already had it and brought it into school). The surge would have happened regardless because these people already had covid and would have spread it through contact with friends/work etc.

Really, we should be looking at what was happening a couple of weeks before the schools reopened to mean that so many children were already infected and bringing it into the schools - hmm, holidays have anything to do with it!?

And this is where problems will develop

public.tableau.com/profile/sg.eas.learninganalysis#!/vizhome/COVID19-SchoolsandChildcareInformation/PupilAttendance-TimeSeries

@Justforphoto

I'm local to the "party teachers" they were a bunch of idiots having a last blow out before schools reopened. It really does only take 1 person to seed a spread like that ( our cases rose before schools went back)

Heaven help me if a baby shower ever becomes a "last blow out" for me. Did they break the local rules at that time?

By the way, I am pretty sure not telling parents or staff that there has been a positive case is illegal. It is a notifiable disease.

Schools, people going back to work, restaurants open, pubs open, people being allowed to
mix with more than one household and what I've noticed a lot of is social distancing fatigue. All of these reasons are why the R rate is rising.

I don't think the government can win whatever they do. It's up to us now the general public, we will determine our future I think.

@Thecobwebsarewinning

I went to the supermarket yesterday. I had to look for the stand with hand sanitiser as it was a little way from the entrance. After I used it I stepped back to apply some emollient because the alcohol in sanitisers is making my eczema very bad and while I did that I watched other customers coming in. I was so shocked how few people even looked around for the sanitiser let alone took the few steps over to use it that I started to count them. Out of about 50 people who entered while I watched only 5 sanitised their hands on entry. I think it was probably a case of the sanitiser being out of sight so it went out of their mind. If that 90% of customers not following the fundamental rule of keeping their hands clean are indicative of habits across the country it’s no wonder the numbers are rising.

How do you know they had not sanitised or washed their hands themselves prior to coming. A lot of people don't like to use the gels put out and will use their own

Also meant to add that with schools being back, the households with multigenerational families are going to see a big infection rate again. The BAME numbers will start climbing in the next couple of weeks.

It’s just a massive disaster. We must accept that kids and schools are a big problem here.

Piggy i think that corona virus transmission is bound to increase in schools when it is endemic in the community.

I would even go as far to say that a 2 week lockdown in Bolton for example where schools and businesses are closed would be beneficial now.

But I think we need to accept that teachers will also bring the virus into schools, not just children.

We had one poster yesterday suggesting that a patient in hopsital caught it from a staff member who had a child in school.

It was a completely and utterly daft leap to make (even though its not impossible).

My problem is that we just don't know and 100% of the blame for that lies with Boris, Dom, Matt and Dido. Although I do feel a bit sorry for Matt. I think he tries and he is not perhaps as culpable as the others.

[quote Piggywaspushed]And this is where problems will develop

public.tableau.com/profile/sg.eas.learninganalysis#!/vizhome/COVID19-SchoolsandChildcareInformation/PupilAttendance-TimeSeries[/quote]
The interesting thing about that chart is it shows infection decreased after schools went back - the timing if the rise shows infection predated schools return.

By the way, I am pretty sure not telling parents or staff that there has been a positive case is illegal. It is a notifiable disease.

Notifiable means you notify the authorities. What would be illegal is sharing private medical data about a pupils.

Agreed time.

But I think it is disingenuous to suggest cases brought in won't spread and therefore that people (children and staff) won't pick their case up at school.
There are more questions than answers!

Notifiable also means you have to tell people in the workplace - especially those who are clinically vulnerable and follow certain precautions.

We have this frequently with shingles and chickenpox,

Piggy i have never once said that.

I do think children are more likely to pick it up in the home environment that at school - at least primary aged children.

But I also expect some spread in the environment.

I just don't think people should automatically think school is to blame.

And still sociallise with family as they won't catch it there.