Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

It is without question that the government are suppressing information to main media about school closures.
It is undoubted that kids should be wearing masks as they do in other countries.
Given then why would the gov refuse to allow even children who are vulnerable/teachers who are or families to wear masks? Sounds a lot like manslaughter to me!
Their own data shows 120 outbreaks in education setting. In what would have been very few days. So minimum of 240 cases. But you are not allowed to test for contact.

Her DH has not been to work for two week s(he is part furloughed) sunshine. He works in professional sport in a non high risk setting. They can just afford the testing!

She was tested because they couldn't test her baby properly so while she was there they did her. Their thinking was if she had it so did baby and vice versa.

You seem to be keen to disprove education settings as a source of infections.

The worry to me now is there will be no contact tracing at that nursery.

Marsha The director of the CDC thinks masks are probably more effective than a vaccine - that good enough for you?
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html

Testing for contact wouldn't rule anything out though. Given that the incubation period is 14 days, you could test at 3/4/5 days post contact and get a negative result but you may still go on to develop symptoms and/or test post it I've later on. It would be a waste of test capacity.

I'd like to see the rapid, on the spot test machines available to every school (either in schools themselves or at a central hub that can be accessed by a number of schools) so that children and teachers who have symptoms can be tested the same day. Hopefully that's something that will be possible in the not too distant future.

I'm not keen to prove or disprove anything. I just think it's helpful to stick to the actual facts. You said there was a high chance she had been infected due to contact with an educational setting, I just want to understand why you/she felt there was a high chance.

[quote IloveJKRowling]Marsha The director of the CDC thinks masks are probably more effective than a vaccine - that good enough for you?
www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html[/quote]
Quite emotive that article, I’d rather have the vaccine here now than just rely on face coverings but that’s his call.

I do think they are a good idea in shops and short time spans. Initially health organisations said 30 minutes. Do you think that is still an issue for longer term use?

I wasn't saying testing for contact : I was saying that the nursery should be isolating staff and children to minimise spread, assuming baby is false negative. Because it is a negative they won't do that. And that is one way it spreads.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the virus is pretty rife in nurseries.

Here are the places she has been sunshine

Home
Her DC has been at nursery
Work : large secondary school
Her baby has been to her mum's for one day of childcare
her DH has been at home for more than 2 weeks
Not been out or been to shop.

Nurseries have been back since 1st June (both of mine were in from day 1, DC1 has now started reception). If it was rife in nurseries wouldn't we have seen evidence of that before now? There have been a couple of outbreaks in nurseries but these have been limited.

I can see the merit in trying to get another test for the baby to clarify although I appreciate with the current pressure in testing that will be challenging.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf

And as everyone is saying it's tip of an iceburg.
No testing
Asymptomatic
No testing for contact so no idea how many of these caught it if not tested without symptoms.
As you see almost as many outbreaks in primary. But that may be to do with them being back earlier it seems

Luckily, she is feeling fine. But it brings home how many asymptomatic cases there are. If she had not been tested she would silently spread it...to colleagues, to her mum in her 60s who does childcare and possibly onwards to her elderly gran.

But I thought that they believe that truly asymptomatic people (ie people who never develop symptoms, as opposed to pre-symptomatic people) are very low risk for transmitting it?

The evidence shows that the biggest risk for transmission is close contact with someone who is symptomatic or just about to become symptomatic, through infected droplets when they cough etc.

I think there has been confusion amongst experts as well, about the use of 'asymptomatic' when they mean someone who doesn't have symptoms because they haven't yet developed them, rather than someone who never develops any symptoms. The first is high risk of spreading it in the 48 hours before they become symptomatic, the latter is much lower risk.

Thats how I understand it anyway.

I said 'symptomatic' a lot in that post didn't I?!

@Sunshinegirl82

Nurseries have been back since 1st June (both of mine were in from day 1, DC1 has now started reception). If it was rife in nurseries wouldn't we have seen evidence of that before now? There have been a couple of outbreaks in nurseries but these have been limited.

I can see the merit in trying to get another test for the baby to clarify although I appreciate with the current pressure in testing that will be challenging.

Nurseries seem to be coping well and on visiting a couple when looking for dd the lack of SD / mitigation was quite something, to get such low level of outbreaks.

@Piggywaspushed you didn't mention the fact that your friend worked in a school in your original post. Clearly with that information I can see why she might be concerned that was the source. Hopefully numbers are limited.

@Keepdistance

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf

And as everyone is saying it's tip of an iceburg.
No testing
Asymptomatic
No testing for contact so no idea how many of these caught it if not tested without symptoms.
As you see almost as many outbreaks in primary. But that may be to do with them being back earlier it seems

Or it could be because there are a lot more primaries

2X4B the problem is, when you make a claim that can be so easily disproven, it weakens the case you are trying to make.

You sure did

I guess 'rife' is a loaded word but I do think babies are hard to test, I have heard parents avoid it , and I think coughs are so common no one really knows how to react.

Nursery nurses are also young and low paid so will want to be at work and less likely to display symptoms in any real way.

This result is a genuine bolt from the blue.

And please correct me if i'm wrong - is an outbreak considered 1 case?

Of so I didn't sunshine. I thought everyone knew I was a teacher! We are so insular!

yes, teacher in a large school with no bubbles.

This'll be interesting...

Outbreak is two linked cases within 2 weeks.

*The OP asked is schools were to blame for the surge in cases.

The answer at this time is quite simply No they are not.

That may be different in 2 weeks*

Now...staff are transferring it to each other within the workplace. This can only be since Sept and within school. A local school has 6 staff already with positive tests.

But the theory was children under 10 so you would expect there to be fewer primary as only 2/7 old enough to spread it.
Smaller numbers in each one would make it less likely for a community case to come in. So half as likely or less than a secondary
What is also concerning is the care homes. .

Piggy thanks.

So if they had say a Y10 and Y12 with no obvious connection would that be considered linked.

Also it doesn't look as if there has been any separation for siblings?

And lastly - would they of all have attended school or is the school listed because someone has tested positive who either works or attends there?

I think that would depend on if public health thought they were linked just by virtue of attending the same school.

I know we do have a testing team who can come in for potential concerns.

I think the nhs testing in schools in jun and jul was flawed. You simply cant take community cases being low/going down and with nearly everything shut with 1/8 of schools in and 2m? SD and apply thst to schools being able to open ok in sept after holidays abroad.
What they should be doing it going round manchester schools with their van and testing the kids now and especially any sent home and their family for 14+ days to see if they caught it. I think they are continuing the research but it shouldnt have been used in any way to make decisions.
Everything almost the same as march and expect different results? There was no need for that experiment we knew whst would happen. The only reasons it's not in some areas is like in march they are less seeded or may have 10 or more % immunity in the children/teachers

@SoManyActivities

The problem is incubation though, which can be up to two weeks. You can be walking around for a week or two incubating the virus.

Yes, but you are not infectious for the up to 14 days that you might be incubating the virus. You are most infectious at around the time symptoms start and just after, and also possibly infectious in the 48 hours before that (which is a bit of a problem).

That is why track and trace want to know the close contacts of a positive person in the 48 hours leading up to their symptoms starting, and 7 days after that.

So if you're not infectious when incubating the virus and asymptomatic spreading is rare, then most infections must occur by people being out and about socialising when they're ill with the virus.

Asymptomatic spreading is clearly a problem though.