Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

@SoManyActivities

Asymptomatic people are less likely to infect others, but they can do so.

Yes, I thought they now believe that completely asymptomatic (as opposed to pre symptomatic) transmission is very rare?

The problem is incubation though, which can be up to two weeks. You can be walking around for a week or two incubating the virus.

@Piggywaspushed yes from reading on here I do. In the state secondary I work in we have a room dedicated to storing bottles and bottles of hand San and wipes and other cleaning items.

Our local authority are clearly being fantastic about funding.

Timeforanotherusername ahh I see. Because obviously the long term effects of children not at school are negligible

Why would schools - which in the UK have all the conditions known to cause covid transmission - NOT be drivers?

• crowded indoor environments
• poor ventilation
• people close together breathing the same air for long periods (6hrs)

Why would they magically be different to anywhere else? It's happening NOW - silently because testing isn't picking up cases in time. NOW is when schools will be drivers. We won't see the results for another week or two, but it's happening.

Do we have to wait for another public health disaster to say - hmmm- maybe the UK should follow the science like literally everywhere else and actually do something in schools that might help?

Masks would cost next to nothing, kids over 6 wear them in Italy, Spain, Korea the US.

The problem is incubation though, which can be up to two weeks. You can be walking around for a week or two incubating the virus.

Yes, but you are not infectious for the up to 14 days that you might be incubating the virus. You are most infectious at around the time symptoms start and just after, and also possibly infectious in the 48 hours before that (which is a bit of a problem).

That is why track and trace want to know the close contacts of a positive person in the 48 hours leading up to their symptoms starting, and 7 days after that.

Also all this sanitising of surfaces - ok, fine, but it seems a bit pointless when we now know that surfaces are not the main route of transfer, breathing is. It's possible to get infected by touching the same surface but wildly unlikely to be the issue, especially if you're breathing the same air of the infected person for hours indoors.

No masks = schoolchildren are breathing in the air of their classmates for hours.

elemental.medium.com/the-most-likely-way-youll-get-infected-with-covid-19-30430384e5a5

Also, we know transmission can and does occur even in socially distanced schools - PHE report from summer term.

Israel outbreak. Denmark outbreak etc etc.

How much evidence do we need?

It seems to me some people just want to wait and then, when people are dying in hospital say 'ah well, we have the evidence now' - what use is that?

Also, we'll never actually have the evidence because the government is deliberately not collecting it.

If keeping schools open at all costs is the plan, pubs/restaurants need to close and foreign travel should stop.

No, it is unhelpful to say "of course schools are behind the rise in cases" when at this stage it seems much more likely that they are not.

ilove it doesn't really matter what you think.

The OP asked is schools were to blame for the surge in cases.

The answer at this time is quite simply No they are not.

That may be different in 2 weeks.

@iloveJKRowling the question isn't can Covid be transmitted in schools the question is are schools the driver.

And the data says no they are not.

The risks to children of not being in school are huge. That cannot be ignored again. The argument needs to be 'what needs to happen to allow schools to stay open?'

Eat out to help out is more likely the cause as this happened earlier on.

Where are people finding all this data on schools? I am finding an absolute dearth of any information whatsoever in the mainstream media.

No masks = schoolchildren are breathing in the air of their classmates for hours.

Totally.

Not really so far. At DC school there are 3 cases. 2 caught outside school and 1 potentially a very close contact of another. Hardly a mass outbreak and well-controlled so far.
Unlike certain (not all) pubs and airplanes - which have all evidence of super-spread and mass transmission.

Looking at the timing, the rise started with infections in August. But once they opened it was the perfect environment for the virus to keep spreading at an alarming rate. So schools aren’t the only reason but they are playing a large part.

The argument needs to be 'what needs to happen to allow schools to stay open?'

Yes - in my opinion:

• money for extra TAs (to allow social distancing where possible)

• use of community spaces where possible (to allow SD)
• masks for all children over 6, particularly where the above not happening
• functioning test and trace - ideally with rapid testing kits actually in schools.

I do think it's valid to ask, given how much evidence there is and given the scientific advice is clearly to do some or all of the above, WHY the government hasn't?

In fact they did give extra money in June/July to allow for some of this - when infection was lower - so why not now?

RIGHT NOW, I think masks in schools are essential. They are the only low cost, easy, quick way to stop spread.

Also I absolutely want schools to stay open. But at this rate half the kids will be off isolating and half the staff, so they won't be properly open or educating anyway.

Most people I know who took a mini break done it in August.
I don't believe schools caused the rise though it will help the spread.

Masks are interesting as a solution atm. Initially it was said that they had to be changed often. But I do see that other countries use them all day in schools. I’m not sure on how much they work overall.

At risk of outing, my friend just tested positive. Completely asymptomatic but the testers did her as well as her baby. Baby came back negative! Her DH has frequent test because of his job and was negative a few days before. My friend goes nowhere, does not socialise as she wants to be careful having a young child and some elderly relatives.

Luckily, she is feeling fine. But it brings home how many asymptomatic cases there are. If she had not been tested she would silently spread it...to colleagues, to her mum in her 60s who does childcare and possibly onwards to her elderly gran.

Her baby could be a false negative as they are very hard to swab but either way there is a HUGE likelihood this was picked up and spread via an educational setting.

@Timeforanotherusername

Aworld that user has a thread clearly wanting schools to close.

Poster either does not know how to interpret data or closes to ignore it as it doesn't fit agenda.

Couldn’t be further from the truth, I want schools to remain as open as they can whilst maintaining safety. Safety for vulnerable children, teachers and the vulnerable in the wider community. With very little mitigation it will quickly come apart. If and when the official data points to huge transmission in schools they WILL shut them down again.

I wonder what the agenda is of those that want schools to have full attendance whilst cases and soon deaths continue to rise?

But maybe small rooms packed full of people won’t affect any figures.

Piggy don’t you have to be symptomatic to be tested? Or was it a private one.

@Piggywaspushed

Why is there a huge likelihood? Had there been a number of cases at her DC's school? If her DH has a job that requires regular testing he would seem a fairly likely source of infection? Being negative a few days beforehand doesn't really establish anything.

If she was completely asymptomatic why was she tested out of interest? As a result of one of her DC having symptoms?

Teachers don't have to be symptomatic. Can't speak for others but I've been tested when my dc were (they had symptoms, I didn't) and that went through the system with no problems.