Italy and Germany - why are their figures better?

[thereplycamefromanchorage]

Have been trying to find coverage of this in the news - why are Italy and Germany doing so much better than Spain and France in terms of new infections?

Since we now are in an up trajectory with the virus in the UK, why aren't we looking at what they are doing and trying to emulate this?

Track and trace I imagine. Certainly Germany seems to be very efficient when it comes to turnaround of tests. They also require people to write down their details at cafes/restaurants etc and then will contact and test if someone else tests positive. These are paper forms but they also have the app up and running. I’ve also noticed people seem to observe social distancing very well.

Germany have been doing very well regarding testing. They've been doing far more than we have since the beginning.

So frustrating that these countries demonstrate it is possible to flatten the trajectory without further lockdown, but of course Boris Johnson has fucked it up.

Are Germany doing more testing? We seem to have a higher number of tests per head of population than they do.

I assume they do better at tracking contacts rather than the testing bit.

It's Italy which has been puzzling me . Obviously they had very high cases initially , but since then they have been off the quarantine list , really low number of cases and I can't see why Italy would differ so much from France or Spain .

A couple of weeks back, people in Spain could have included the U.K. with Germany and Italy. What we see now won’t be how it will be in a fortnight, let alone in a month or by mid-November.

Hopefully Italy and Germany will keep a lid on things - though their cases are rising too - but there have been far too many premature claims made in the sorry episode for me to have any confidence.

It's Italy which has been puzzling me . Obviously they had very high cases initially , but since then they have been off the quarantine list , really low number of cases and I can't see why Italy would differ so much from France or Spain .

Italy’s cases are not really low -1,900
today. They are roughly where we were two weeks ago. That reminds me of March but in reverse!

I have read that Germany have a good contact tracing system in place, so I'm sure that will be part of it.

Because they don't have as many eejits.

Yes our government is the most shite it has ever been but that is no excuse for the behaviour of many.

I live in Germany and know several Italians and am currently visiting the UK, so should be well placed to compare.

One key difference is that people in both countries are much more compliant with public health measures....especially Italy. I've heard pretty much everyone wears a mask in indoor public places, without any of the fuss i've seen here and that people are still taking COVID extremely seriously. The schools also only just re-opened.

Germany has a very good contact tracing mobile phone app, and sufficient testing capacity, including the availability of testing at airports for people returning from high-risk countries. For example, my sister-in-law in Nordrhein-Westfallen (one of the worst-hit parts of Germany) was able to arrange a test at 12h notice and received a result 12h after swabbing (thankfully negative).

Although it seems a simplistic explanation, the main difference I can see really does seem to be better public health measure in both countries. Nonetheless, cases are still rising in both Italy and Germany, albeit more slowly than in the UK.

Schools in Italy only went back in some regions on Monday and in others next Thursday. That will be telling. Though masks will be mandatory I believe.

Tests are easy to get, teachers and school staff have all been invited to have one.

And yes, while there are idiots everywhere, there just seems to be more general compliance with the few, but non negotiable rules.
Masks on outdoors where SD isn't possible between 6pm and 6am, masks on indoors in shops etc, or you don't get to go in. Ditto public transport.

You have to leave forwarding details in restaurants etc.

I think there will be local further restrictions as/if cases go up. Nightclubs were closed in August after reopening in July because they are massive venues and 3000 people can't SD even if in summer all the venues are outside.

The Italian govt is worried, we are constantly bombarded by the "just keep being sensible" message. Kids are desperate to return to school so are being careful.

A colleague teaching in the north (I'm in the south) has blended learning in his school, half in class, half participating online. I've seen the preliminary reports from my and dd's school and it's all in place for the same should it be necessary. Hopefully not.

Germany has really thrown everything recently at getting returning travellers tested before they can spread the virus in the community. There are testing stations at airports, train stations etc, and compulsory testing plus quarantine for returnees from high-risk areas - and I suspect Germans are sufficiently obedient to comply with this more than in the UK.

The test, track and trace programme isn't perfect: nobody in our family can use the app because our iPhones are too old. Our local test centre only currently has testing slots two days in the future for people with symptoms, and only operates Monday to Friday. BUT the tracing seems quite good once people get a positive result. And rules governing sick pay are quite favourable to employees so people are less likely to work when infectious out of economic desperation.

It's also good that masks were introduced back in April: we're all pretty used to them now, compliance is extremely high. You are only exempt with a certificate from a doctor, so much more difficult to take the piss than in the UK.

And we've found that wearing masks reminds people to keep a distance - unlike in countries like the Netherlands which has rejected masks, there's nothing visible there to nudge them to social distance, and their rates in big cities are through the roof. They're big into hand sanitising, which has now been shown to be less effective at preventing spread than a combination of distancing and wearing a mask. I think that's a problem in the UK too - making an effort in the wrong direction.

It's Italy which has been puzzling me

Maybe the fact they're using community spaces and have 4,000 new school staff to avoid sending children back crammed in like sardines (like we have) that is helping?

Italy and Germany did something about the problem instead of pretending everything was ok when it wasn't. They realised the way back to normality wasn't pretending things were already normal.

Germany tackled it well from the start. They have a very good well-funded healthcare system and they treated Covid patients early. As with any illness, early treatment can prevent hospitalisation.

Italy, unlike us, learnt from February/March. They put in place precautionary measures.

As for the lack of reporting. Our news only seems to report on other countries experiences of Covid when they're doing badly or have a setback. New Zealand was mentioned a month ago when they had a (by our standards) tiny outbreak. They took swift and effective action to deal with it. Which means our news is no longer reporting on them. I think we're not meant to realise quite how badly we're dealing with it compared to many other places around the world.

God, you’d think people would have learnt by now about the dangers of pontificating about what people are ‘doing’.

They’re probably just a few weeks behind France/Spain/U.K.

After a point, this thing spreads no matter what you do (outside of lockdown). The only thing that looks like it can slow that are the levels of infection NY (for example) reached.

Italy also had a huge number of cases in a small geographical area - much of the country was relatively unaffected. So I guess they've managed to keep things contained to the area that was hit so badly, and maybe give plenty of focus/resource to that area to recover?

I've been wondering about this, although track & trace is falling short in England it isn't in Wales, with a high percentage of both positive people & contacts being reached on day one or two. But that isn't making a marked difference

@TheKeatingFive

God, you’d think people would have learnt by now about the dangers of pontificating about what people are ‘doing’.

They’re probably just a few weeks behind France/Spain/U.K.

After a point, this thing spreads no matter what you do (outside of lockdown). The only thing that looks like it can slow that are the levels of infection NY (for example) reached.

This is true. You wonder if it's just inevitable to some degree.

Germany has dealt with CV far better than most other european countries, so they'll deal with any resurgence better too.

Just look at what Italy is doing in regard to education? we are not.

Germany has an intelligent woman in charge, we voted in an immoral buffoon, a man who in any other world would be selling time shares or running pension scams .

I believe in Germany and Italy you have to go through doctors to get tested, so they are very focused on testing those most at risk, as well as incoming infections on flights etc.

I also think, like others have said, they are compliant and buy into the test and trace, and comply with leaving correct details and follow isolation better.

I haven't yet seen any evidence of track being a massive game changer.

Because both counties have a population who do as asked with moaning and groaning and I not doing it etc.

Germany has a better track and trace

We have a country full of idiots who believe rules don’t apply to them, don’t see why they have to wear masks or adhere to SD, just look at all the current posts on MN

population who do as asked with(out) moaning and groaning

That's not true of Germany or Italy.

Germany has an intelligent woman in charge, we voted in an immoral buffoon, a man who in any other world would be selling time shares or running pension scams

Yup - just that. Couldn't agree more.

@Timeforanotherusername

Because they don't have as many eejits.

Yes our government is the most shite it has ever been but that is no excuse for the behaviour of many.

Ah good to see that the government have managed to pass the buck onto members of the public. They've dealt with this easily poorly but obviously it's not down to the failing testing system, the nonexistent tracing system, the failure to support people with SSP or the lack of PPE in hospitals and care homes.

No it's the fault of a minority who went to the pub or the beach or had a family party.

@daytripper28

Germany has an intelligent woman in charge, we voted in an immoral buffoon, a man who in any other world would be selling time shares or running pension scams

Yup - just that. Couldn't agree more.

Agree with this. Of all the politicians who have led this country in the last century, it certainly is unfortunate that he is the one in office during this crisis.