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Italy and Germany - why are their figures better?

127 replies

thereplycamefromanchorage · 18/09/2020 20:53

Have been trying to find coverage of this in the news - why are Italy and Germany doing so much better than Spain and France in terms of new infections?

Since we now are in an up trajectory with the virus in the UK, why aren't we looking at what they are doing and trying to emulate this?

OP posts:
weepingwillow22 · 19/09/2020 06:03

@Qasd

Are Germany doing more testing? We seem to have a higher number of tests per head of population than they do.

I assume they do better at tracking contacts rather than the testing bit.

I guess it also depends how well targeted your testing is. If you are wasting lots of tests on school children with snotty noses and colds rather than testing people with greater likelihood of covid the outcomes will be poorer.
Justpassingtime1 · 19/09/2020 06:20

I used to live in both countries. In Germany especially health and public
health are very high on their priorities. They spend more on health care
per person than we do and their intensive care provision is double ours.
In other words instead of worrying about whether the NHS can cope
they are able to focus on other measures.
Their luxurious health care system is further aided by the fact that health matters are more regionally devolved whereas the UK wastes
precious time waiting for action from a distant centralised power.
Also there is more intergenerational housing so less need for care
homes in general so a bit less risk there.
I noticed when I came back to the UK how property prices and investment were overall more important than investing in public services. This is not to criticise the NHS. It is just a fact .
You get what you pay for

Francecat · 19/09/2020 06:28

We spent a week in Italy at the end of June (I live in France right near the Italian border) and I felt like people had been so shocked by what happened there first time round that they were very happy to follow whatever hygiene measures. Masks were obligatory on all public transport, shops, anywhere there were crowds or distancing wasn’t possible (in the small streets in Venice for example).

We are now doing this is France but we started a lot later.

jasjas1973 · 19/09/2020 08:44

Are Germany doing more testing? We seem to have a higher number of tests per head of population than they do

I would question how our tests are being counted? posted tests (but sent back), repeated tests on the same person, folk who have regular tests.
Read an article last week that said number who are genuine first time tests, with a confirmed result, is around 70k per day.

Results take too long, no support for people isolating i.e. self employed and the low paid and even now no right to a test for CH staff and just as important, agency staff who do the vast majority of community social care.
Labour have been pushing the Govt to do all this for weeks, with no response.

But ultimately we have a PM who has never really taken CV seriously, even his infection and recovery probably makes him think its no biggie (like many in RL too)
Who likes to boast about the next big idea, usually done to take our eye off the current failures, all completely unattainable or in realistic time scales.

annabel85 · 19/09/2020 08:58

Spain and France are huge tourist traps and opening a lot of things up for summer after strict lockdown has helped cause that. Along with people packing out bars when they first opened, saw cases increase quicker than they did here.

Germany as a country tends to be far more efficient than most and thus has been more on top of things. We're always reactive.

BlueTitsRock · 19/09/2020 09:05

I have lots of family in Germany and can tell you that test and trace is working and you gave access to tests too and generally a much much better health care system.

Ginfordinner · 19/09/2020 09:09

@thereplycamefromanchorage

So frustrating that these countries demonstrate it is possible to flatten the trajectory without further lockdown, but of course Boris Johnson has fucked it up.
Not just Boris, but all the idiots who have been ignoring the guidelines.
bumblingbovine49 · 19/09/2020 09:15

Italy opened up more slowly. They have worn masks including in a lot of offices and all retail all day from the beginning. They introduced a curfew . Also their schools go back a bit later than here and they are putting lots of measures to help schools. Their numbers will rise though, they have just done a better job deferring the rise than we have.

bumblingbovine49 · 19/09/2020 09:23

I think the op who said it was about better local public health measures and a public who comply and don't moan ( generally) about masks etc has it right

I don't think numbers will stay low though

jasjas1973 · 19/09/2020 09:58

Not just Boris, but all the idiots who have been ignoring the guidelines

We have too many inconsistencies in the messaging, so go back to work, shop, eat out, socialise, staycations, but we can't have a kids party of 7 or go for a SD run with 6 others..... but i can go grouse shooting with 20 people.... and play footie with 21 others....be in a class room of 35 but can't invite a friend over... even driving 100s of miles with CV symptoms is all fine and dandy.

i follow the news but in all honesty, i have little idea what is allowed and what isn't plus none of it will be enforced nor has the Govt carried us along with their decision making, what little there has been :(

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 19/09/2020 10:09

Germany seem to have a very good track and trace system. Schooling has been done different in other places rather than like here where all are back in the same space as before.

Maybe the residents there are more compliant. We have far too many who simply just don’t follow the rules so refuse to wear masks, don’t bother with social distancing and meet in groups outside of the law.

No government will have the perfect answer as too much still unknown but the people of the country have a responsibility too.

LilyPond2 · 19/09/2020 10:52

Re testing, it's not just number of tests that is important. How quickly the results are turned around is crucial because a key aspect of the testing regime is to be able to identify an infected person's contacts before they have in turn become infectious and passed the virus on to lots of others. It sounds like Germany is doing much better at turning test results around quickly.

Itsabeautifuldayheyhey · 19/09/2020 10:56

So frustrating that these countries demonstrate it is possible to flatten the trajectory without further lockdown, but of course Boris Johnson has fucked it up.
Idiots failing to follow the rules/guidance/law are probably the ones who have fucked it up.

LittleRen · 19/09/2020 11:38

People didn’t flock to Italy and Germany when everywhere opened up again - they all flocked to Spain and France. I’m not blaming tourists but there was definitely a huge influx of people in Spain and France. Things opened up quickly in Spain, quicker than U.K. which is why we are a few weeks behind, probably same with Italy.

Melassa · 19/09/2020 11:47

In Italy there is a lot more compliance, as a PP mentioned we reopened very gradually. Shops and indoor spaces still require masks 100% of the time, in the larger stores they still take your temperature, the same in office buildings.

Testing has a quick turnaround, it’s 48h in most places. I’ve had friends take tests, both the swab test and the antibody test (which are also freely available in pharmacies) and have had no issues accessing them. There was a shortage at some stage during the first outbreak but they managed to rectify.

Schools have gone back but it’s been well organised, in my area anyway. Not all schools are doing blended learning, my DD is in secondary and they have staggered entry and exit, staggered breaks, temperature taking at entry, no gathering in changing rooms (on PE days they need to go in dressed in their sports kit), masks worn in common spaces (but not in the classroom), all teaching staff have visors and/or masks. They’ve also hired more support staff to help manage the logistics.

We’ll just have to see what happens, on public transport they’ve just removed the one seat space rule, so all seats can be used. But masks still need to be worn and it is policed to a certain extent. In my area a lot of people are still home working but it is expected than more people will be gradually returning to offices in October. If there is going to be another wave it might well be then.

The Italian govt have been quick to react to surges and the messaging has been pretty clear, on the whole. Unlike what seems to be happening in the UK, I was speaking to friends and family and everyone seems to understand the new rules differently.

SerenityNowwwww · 19/09/2020 11:48

Counting differently? Belgium has massive rates but they are very conscientious in their tracking and reporting.

annabel85 · 19/09/2020 11:50

@IloveJKRowling

It's Italy which has been puzzling me

Maybe the fact they're using community spaces and have 4,000 new school staff to avoid sending children back crammed in like sardines (like we have) that is helping?

I think with Italy as well they suffered terribly in February/March and were the first to get hit badly. It was quite apocalyptic at the time, the scenes in hospitals etc and hordes fleeing Lombardy where whole families were being decimated with a terrible mortality rate.

They don't want to go through that again, so are probably being more careful than partying Brits or the civil liberties brigade. It's also an older population, the second wave has mainly been caused by younger people (younger people mostly catching the virus across EUrope during the holiday season).

thereplycamefromanchorage · 19/09/2020 11:52

Itsabeautifuldayheyhey, I don't know, I feel uncomfortable with a narrative that blames the public for the rise in cases - it's surely one that suits the government.

Of course personal responsibility matters in this, but so does government response, and I find this increasingly lacking. From the tragedy of care homes, to the debacle of testing run by someone who apparently didn't predict an increase in testing in September, to the mixed messages from the government (culminating in the Dominic Cummings saga) - it's been disastrous, and it's an easy way out to blame the public.

Am really interested by some of the responses about Italy and Germany, and would love it if someone in government appeared to be paying attention to this - but this seems unlikely.

OP posts:
Sidewinder30 · 19/09/2020 11:53

Better, more accessible testing, better compliance with mitigation measures (masks, distancing, sanitising, etc), better leadership. Cases will rise in Italy with schools going back - naturally. But hopefully it will be kept under contol. There is a depressing link between having a cartoon idiot as your leader and your country's Covid pandemic. All countries struggle, but sensible responses from leadership and citizens make a huge difference.

Ginfordinner · 19/09/2020 11:54

Idiots failing to follow the rules/guidance/law are probably the ones who have fucked it up.

I agree. I am no fan of Boris, but I don't think it is fair to blame everything on him. That said the governemtn could have been clearer about comminucating the rules and guidelines.

annabel85 · 19/09/2020 11:57

@Ginfordinner

Idiots failing to follow the rules/guidance/law are probably the ones who have fucked it up.

I agree. I am no fan of Boris, but I don't think it is fair to blame everything on him. That said the governemtn could have been clearer about comminucating the rules and guidelines.

But it was Boris who said he could rely on British common sense (with nothing to back that up).

Behavioral science has to factor in o their decision making.

Melassa · 19/09/2020 11:58

@LittleRen

People didn’t flock to Italy and Germany when everywhere opened up again - they all flocked to Spain and France. I’m not blaming tourists but there was definitely a huge influx of people in Spain and France. Things opened up quickly in Spain, quicker than U.K. which is why we are a few weeks behind, probably same with Italy.
The surge in Italy was linked to tourism, both foreigners and home grown. People gathering in groups, partying and clubbing. Nightclubs were closed down again pretty sharpish. Flavio Briatore of F1 fame defied the closedown, thought he was above the law, he has an exclusive nightclub in Sardinia, frequented by people from the entertainment industry, footballers, the uber rich and the odd politician. He then caught Covid and was hospitalised, as did a few very expensive footballers and his mate Berlusconi. He has now closed his club Grin
thereplycamefromanchorage · 19/09/2020 11:58

Sidewinder, yes so true - having a cartoon idiot in charge certainly doesn't help.

OP posts:
Sidewinder30 · 19/09/2020 12:02

@Ginfordinner I think it's fair to lay a lot of blame on Boris. I'm in Italy. This is not a nation of rule-followers. But guidelines have been clear and fairly consistent (after serious wobbles at the start). The country's leaders made a persuasive and scientific case for the Lockdown and the reopening. It's not been perfect and not everyone agrees - not at all. But when I have visited the UK during this pandemic, it's been a very different approach - confused and weak. And you can see the difference on the streets and in the stats.

Heffalooomia · 19/09/2020 12:03

@daytripper28

Germany has an intelligent woman in charge, we voted in an immoral buffoon, a man who in any other world would be selling time shares or running pension scams

Yup - just that. Couldn't agree more.

Another vote for this reply from me
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