Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I've noticed the greater number of women testing positive for a while and wondered what was going on.

I really can't help feeling children are passing it on but obviously have more asymptomatic cases.

(Should have read it)

He said the higher proportion of women working in hospitality, such as pubs, cafes and restaurants, in the caring sector, and in shops where they come into contact with customers, could leave them more exposed to the virus, particularly when people get sloppy about social distancing and other preventative measures.

I do need to point out that 90% of primary staff are women though here.

70% secondary

@Piggywaspushed

Oh, I see sun got there before me more intellectually

:) naaah, I can just read faster :)

Primary staff are on average younger, too. A good thing on the whole , but maybe not on these latest figures.

@NeurotrashWarrior

70% secondary

are you sure? In our secondary there is a real male dominance. It is a boy's school though, so that just might be it.

Fair play sun !

I actually got it wrong for primary, around 84%.

www.besa.org.uk/key-uk-education-statistics/

Illustrates too that copying the successful strategies of Taiwan, Singapore etc would be a non-starter in the individualistic UK or USA

Sadly, this is what we concluded, pondered Sweden for a while, concluded we might be doomed and then thought about the economy for a while..

Individualistic cultures aren't me , me, me... they prioritise family (it IS Thatcherism essential) so that's a way in. Collectivist cultures do 'shame' (Japan...) and we do 'guilt'. So different sanctions etc.

In the most extreme and isolated collectivist cultures there is no 'native' word for 'I'. Hard to conceptualise!

sun , I read 68% somewhere yesterday.

SLTs are dominated by men though. Hmmmm...

It's not good is it.

Just shows apart from children (in the vast majority of cases) we all need to be worried.

I've pretty much never been ill. I had a high temp for 24 hours a few years ago and that was the 1stntime for years. But who's to say that it will be the same if I catch CV.

I'm not in that age group but not that long out of it.

Re Liverpool

This from published on the 17th
Data extracted covering testing up to 14 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 537, an increase of 201 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of COVID-19 in Liverpool is 107.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 7.6%.

Compare with today:
liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
Data extracted covering testing up to 19 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 815, an increase of 291 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 163.6 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 9.9%.

Not good.

Until he started talking about mass testing, I thought he did better than normal tonight.

Whether it gets through to anyone is another thing.

Pre print of seroprevalence in Brazilian Amazon, where cases peaked in May then declined, suggested due to effects of herd immunity. The effect seems to kick in about 44% and tops out around 66%.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1

But what I don't understand about increasing rates in women 20-40 is, presumably the same proportions of employees in hospitality, care, schools etc existed back in March. Why is it different now??

Also, did you see that the CDC has today withdrawn it's new paper/research about airborne transmission, saying it needs extra checking or somesuch?

@RedToothBrush

Re Liverpool

This from published on the 17th
Data extracted covering testing up to 14 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 537, an increase of 201 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of COVID-19 in Liverpool is 107.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 7.6%.

Compare with today:
liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
Data extracted covering testing up to 19 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 815, an increase of 291 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 163.6 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 9.9%.

Not good.

.... Very useful data, but indeed not good

A high % positive and a sharp rise in actual numbers

[quote whatsnext2]Pre print of seroprevalence in Brazilian Amazon, where cases peaked in May then declined, suggested due to effects of herd immunity. The effect seems to kick in about 44% and tops out around 66%.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1[/quote]
....
very interesting
Fits roughly with some high pop density areas having up to 70% of the community with antibodies

I work in Liverpool - those numbers are terrifying

But what I don't understand about increasing rates in women 20-40 is, presumably the same proportions of employees in hospitality, care, schools etc existed back in March. Why is it different now??

Perhaps the other groups are just isolating more now, so it's really an effect of teasing out the extra risk compared to the groups who are currently protecting themselves more.

Have there been more in depth international demographic breakdowns of the "2nd wave", and whether they're broadly comparable to when this all started? I saw someone mention how the Spanish flu killed more young people in its 2nd wave, and maybe that's the same with this?

Just trying to read up on positivity rates. 10% and above is regarded as very bad and indicative of widespread community transmission.

I believe WHO regards below 5% as what you should be aiming for.

If you look at countries with national rates thst high it might give you a better sense of where we are at in terms if testing and compliance (the data for US red states is interesting...)

Heres a handy chart for this in terms of the uk too

This is why I ask at what point do schools have to consider self protection and protection of those pupils most in need, both KW and AN.

A particularly bad situation but cases are spiralling in Newcastle. They've been open exactly two weeks.

How many staff will be well enough after 2 weeks? A Gp friend had it mildly but said it was 4 weeks before she could function effectively again.

@screamer1

Have there been more in depth international demographic breakdowns of the "2nd wave", and whether they're broadly comparable to when this all started? I saw someone mention how the Spanish flu killed more young people in its 2nd wave, and maybe that's the same with this?

.... No sign whatsoever that young people are more likely to die now

In fact, as far more is now known about treating Covid over the last 6 months - early O2, 2 steroid drugs etc - evidence is that Fatality Rate has reduced somewhat,
e.g. the survival rate in ICU as reported by ICNARC is now 54%, compared to only 33% in March-April

Scientists confirm that the virus variants are clinically the same as in March, so would not suddenly be more dangerous for particular groups, once they actually catch it

• all that has changed is that the young are going out much more than the old and hence more likely to get infected

Comparisons to the 1918 or other flu are not relevant wrt changes in fatality rates, because the flu virus mutates rapidly, whereas Coronavirus is pretty stable

Thanks that's interesting @BigChocFrenzy. This is the only thread I should read on coronavirus.

It's so much better when just examining the data.