Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

marsha I don't think the mood is much different in schools form March. I sense creeping anxiety , mixed with hysteria, to a continuous soundtrack of coughing. Sorry, I know you don't want to know that!

It seems only teachers are expected to work in a completely non 'covid secure' environment.

Exactly. I've returned to supply teaching this week and have been shocked to see it is all exactly as it was pre Covid. No protection whatsoever for staff, children or parents.

@Piggywaspushed

I had an A Level lesson today on individualism and collectivism. They didn't like the idea of masks in school, but not one of these 16 and 17 year olds felt the virus should just be left to them to get and sod Other People. They all understood their actions affect others. Just as a little bit of cheer for you re the young!

I'm so glad to hear that, Piggy. My teens are the same. That teens thread nearly drove me mad and I have raged through my day. Thank goodness for this balanced, measured, sensible thread.

@Piggywaspushed

marsha I don't think the mood is much different in schools form March. I sense creeping anxiety , mixed with hysteria, to a continuous soundtrack of coughing. Sorry, I know you don't want to know that!

Piggy that’s ok! In a specific setting ie school that might be different. I do think part of the problem is the public mood has changed and the last two days are to bring back seriousness.

Bet can you link that article you quoted from? Tried to find it by google

Btw not bet

@Fyzz

So Boris has seen evidence that the spread is due to late night drinking - does anyone know where that information has been published? I'd be interested, it's certainly a strategy they used in Belgium. On a proper night out, younger generation (my offspring included) tend not to even go out until after ten. Maybe they'll just start earlier or just stay in, but I can see that it will reign in long drunken pub crawls and therefore lessen the mingling.

It will to some extent as no more than 6 per table and also table service.

So even if they go out earlier they will limited to what they can do iyswim?

I was surprised as I expected an actual curfew on being indoors such as 11-6 like other countries have unless you are working or travelling to and from work. That would stop people going to mothers households after the pub to continue drinking. I know 6 could technically go back but then they'd have to stay the night etc which would be difficult if people have jobs.

It would be a way to make it far more difficult to flout the rules.

I'm beyond furious about the lack of anything remotely effective with regards to infection control in schools but will try and save that for another thread (I value this thread as a calm place as most of the rest of MN makes me at the moment)

Oldbagface I wonder if that is a real "wibble" (technical term) in the curve or is an artefact of the testing debacle?

I accept it’s challenging for teachers, but I agree with the policy of keeping schools open if at all possible. My DC are different, much happier, kids now that they are back at school, even though they were part of the privileged few who had excellent (private) virtual schooling throughout lockdown. Their schools are also really trying - my youngest (9 year old) DC was explaining yesterday about “antibaccing” which is what they are asked do whenever they finish in a shared classroom such as the science lab.

On wider issues, I’m feeling really depressed by the latest numbers on hospitalisations - one of the best indicators in my view of actual disease prevalence. The English hospital admissions figures, totals in hospital and numbers on ventilators have increased significantly after many, many months of steady decline. As a result, I don’t think the new measures have gone far enough. Yet again, Scotland has made the better call. Stopping mixing of households indoors is the obvious additional step that would make a difference without harm to the economy or education.

Piggy glad to hear you promote how sensible and socially responsible many teens are. Last night at my ds swim training 2 swimmers had stopped at end. He knew he couldn't go to end to push off due to distancing and after much panicking deliberation about how he could continue the set he pushed off from the side across the lane and carried on.
There are some who actually really won't go near others due to SD where told not to.

@Oldbagface

Bolton is now back above 200. Is that restrictions not working or poor compliance?

... Just reading the restrictions: They should be enough to get it under control, especially the tighter ones since 14 September

So, looks like poor compliance / enforcement imo

imo, many people ignoring restrictions now, would obey them if their area / the Uk reverts to high daily deaths, but not atm

"High" varies, but for the UK I doubt if 200 deaths per day would persuade many of the hardcore who think it's a hoax, or simply that it won't affect them personally, e.g. the healthy, under 40 / 50 .... and selfish

The trouble is we’ve already suffered through 1000 a day. And initially that radio report of deaths rising was an odd psychological effect. But the downside is that having been through it low numbers don’t shock as much.

The message that could get through is: if we don’t hold back the virus a fair bit when anyone needs healthcare it might not be there.

Whitty talked about it a bit and it was a good part of the comms.

BCF, I'm in the NE where restrictions came in to play last week. I've seen no evidence yet of anyone changing their behaviour. Still a crowd around the school gate, parents still going to each others houses for a cuppa.
There's still kids parties going on, sleepovers etc.
A friend met up with some other friends & the kids went to soft play. Then they went shopping. Her parents had the kids overnight whilst her, her OH, Sister, Her OH & another 2 people went for a meal & drinks.
Then they went out for breakfast on Sunday before collecting the kids from her parents & going to her grandparents for Sunday lunch.

They do all appear to think it doesn't & won't affect them, so they're fine..
Strangely enough, they're of the opinion that schools can NOT close ever again

@MarshaBradyo

People do change behaviour however when the tide turns.

Didn’t we peak quite early just before schools closed because some companies etc were taking own decisions.

The mood is different now to March, possibly lower fear, 200 deaths is far under what we experienced and although it will go above that is the number that was highlighted.

But overall behaviour around a long stark winter will feel different to our just finished happier summer.

Not sure obviously but always find the behavioural part of it interesting.

I wonder about that 200 figure - presumably that is within 28 days. I wonder how many of the 1000ish deaths at the peak were within 28 days and how safe a comparison it is.

Sorry if this has been discussed up thread, I do try and keep up!

That's what I think too, Marsha
200 / day was shocking to almost all in March, but would be ignored / minimised by some today, who would still not follow the rules

However, as we were informed later, full lockdown would have worked with only about 70% compliance - and the Uk had about 90%
So lesser measures have some effect and some people will always comply with rules and / or be naturally cautious
e.g Bolton could have had far more cases if there had been no rules

Unless BCF, there was a shortage of testing during that two weeks which under represented cases in the first two weeks of September and testing is now catching up with that.

I suspect not though.

Interesting to see whats happening in Liverpool and Knowsley atm. Their rates have gone up suddenly and steeply.

Knowsley is regarded as one of the most vulnerable councils in terms of deprivation / underlying health.

Even though Boltons numbers are still going up (which I'd expect due to testing shortages) the rate they are going up has dropped off considerably.

I'd call that a success in measures. That leaves two questions about testing and whether its possible for measures to go far enough with schools open and higher rates of non compliance compared to previously.

Sunseekin I think it would have been unwise to ignore deaths after 28 days in a figure used in that way. So probably not.

He could have said and by December we’ll have 1000, Jan more still (not working it out here just examples) but from a messaging POV 200 won’t cause many to feel that fear we had back in March because we’ve been through worse.

BigChoc yes agree we have had good compliance which is something

The cautiousness will most likely come back as people draw back into their lives and summer ends

"I wonder how many of the 1000ish deaths at the peak were within 28 days and how safe a comparison it is."

There were 22 successive days of > 1,000 deaths, with a peak of 1,445 at peak on 8 April
which was 64% higher than the offical figure then

At that time, only hospital deaths were included, no care homes etc, so the official figuires have since been quietly updated

See attached comparison of figures issued then vs real ones:

Shitfuckoh, the mood will start to change when people start to hear of cases amongst people they know.

Im seeing a shift in tone on my social media about this.

Its complacency and this idea that it affects other people.

When you start hearing that Dorothy at No18 has it and Freddie has been sent home from his school, i think people start to change their minds.

If only because it becomes apparent that the chances of you being forced to take time off work are getting increasingly high.

Of course by that point, its potentially too late.

Obviously, for those 22 days of successive deaths > 1,000
almost all but a handful of deaths would have been within 28 days !

Just on the autism - I looked at the chart and they say that there will be additional data being published soon. They also say the majority at from acute inpatient settings.

"Unless BCF, there was a shortage of testing during that two weeks which under represented cases in the first two weeks of September and testing is now catching up with that."

I looked for any recent ramping up of testing there, but couldn't find any evidence of this

% positivity changes would also be an indicator of genuine increase or not, if we have this data

@IceCreamSummer20

Just on the autism - I looked at the chart and they say that there will be additional data being published soon. They also say the majority at from acute inpatient settings.

... I wonder if the monitoring is from concern at whether those with severe autism or LDs could cope with some of the intrusive tests or treatment in hospital, whether more staff training was needed etc

I think very local cases will have a greater effect than National numbers, which people are weary of. There are also too many voices continually saying that the deaths are so low, people are switching off. They think they have been through it unscathed.

What I saw people local to me take notice of was cases in local schools.

My DS is now awaiting a result of a Covid-19 test and the whole experience is a bit of a wake up call!