Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Morfin

14 in secondary??????? It's mind blowing. 33 in my school. 33 in a room built for 28 desks. I knew it was smaller classes in Germany but I didn't realise it was like comparing Apples and elephants.

... I've heard of 26-28 in Berlin though As I said, those were averages

@Keepdistance

You cant balance out schools +0.4? With such minimal measures.

We don't know what there value is do we?

If most of the infections are transmitted via househuolds socialising inside then surely the additional restrictions in places and also the Rule of 6 should bring it down.

We've not really had long enough for the rule of 6 to have an impact, and some of the local restrictions too.

I don't agree that it should be a one size fits all by any means.

I'm also not feeling comfortable at all at the moment with continuing education no matter what - at what point would blended learning be a better approach to help reduce footfall and contact in schools?

Are we education or childcare? What about the health and well-being of staff too? We have our own families to go home to.

Last week of July there were 0 cases for a week in Newcastle. We're edging to 70-90 per day now.

I was lied to told by a union rep that there'd be mobile test vans who could be sent to schools for parents and staff to access tests more easily.

It seems it's more likely that we'd see a unicorn rock up.

@Morfin

14 in secondary??????? It's mind blowing. 33 in my school. 33 in a room built for 28 desks. I knew it was smaller classes in Germany but I didn't realise it was like comparing Apples and elephants.

I've been banging on pointing out these particular numbers for a long time. They really matter. Also for reasons beside Covid.

I've also found that class sizes can be considerably smaller in sen schools too.

I've seen class sizes in our SEN school rise considerably in the last 10 years.

I'm also not feeling comfortable at all at the moment with continuing education no matter what - at what point would blended learning be a better approach to help reduce footfall and contact in schools?

Agree but this government seems so determined to not give extra funding to schools, and equally determined to block any attempts they make to improve things independently (e.g. DfE has blocked any use of community buildings - I simply can't see why those already used for e.g. school plays couldn't be used as presumably already deemed safe?)

I hear so much about 'covid secure' workplaces on the radio but schools just aren't, in any way shape or form. It seems only teachers are expected to work in a completely non 'covid secure' environment.

We can't compare with Germany. They hv an excellent test and trace system.

I've had a thought!

Winter when it gets colder and darker earlier naturally seems to bring people indoors of their own houses.

So ideally the biggest compliance we need is people not mixing households in huge numbers and compliance to rule of 6?

Bolton is now back above 200. Is that restrictions not working or poor compliance?

Thanks BCF. Quite a big difference in our class sizes to yours then, even the 26-28 side of things!

@NeurotrashWarrior
I fully agree that staff health & well being is important. I'm not happy with the 'education in schools must continue no matter what' either. I can go back to home learning with mine if needed, it was hard work but we survived it & they did make good progress whilst doing so. They do have each other but that's not the same as playing with their friends - but can we really justify school staff being put at risk - mentally as well as physically, for the sake of playtime? It's a really difficult one but having burnt out, worried staff is not the answer and that's before we consider some teachers becoming ill.
Our SEN school has been pretty quiet in regards what would happen if cases rise too much etc - think it's because the DfE guidance states they'll stay open no matter what.
Are your school planning for anything else?

It seems only teachers are expected to work in a completely non 'covid secure' environment.

yes I've just had this rant.

Testing (quickly, for all in the community) was the only thing I saw as our slight protection. They lied to us.

Re rule of 6 Itsgettingweird, I wouldn't be surprised if they introduce 0 mixing with anyone outside the household unless childcare or a single bubbled person as they have in the NE. And elsewhere? Especially nearer Xmas.

Yes, schools should be about education and well being - the later for all in school, but not childcare.

Staff who work in schools usually aren't just in one year bubble of 100, it can be two to four. There is absolutely no SD, limited supplies of sanitizer and disinfectant available in the day. After being so careful trying to protect myself and my family for months, I'm finding it very stressful and I know my blood pressure is up.

I'd love to be in a full school, but as mentioned by above, maybe blended learning shouldn't be ruled out. The children get their education but also time in school which is important from the social aspect, learning how to be with others and mentally. Everyone is safer and less likely to get year bubbles and staff isolating (as mentioned they are usually in more than one year bubble).

It turns out that in the school my son goes to there were only 4 physically present from a class of 15 (specialist GCSE subject, normal class size is 26). And it's only been 2 weeks.
There is no blended learning strategy that we know of, nothing.
I think it's irresponsible for HTs* to rely on gov guidance. The disruption that this whole forcing everyone back brings is not worth it. And because of no testing there is no evidence that there is a covid outbreak (or a few kids even), so PHE doesn't have to be notified, and parents are not notified either. I know this because the teacher actually told the kids, as most of the sick ones are actually sick, not isolating, so aren't even online.

So they are sick, go back as soon as symptoms subside, but they still might be infectious. Then another batch get sick, and on and on.... what's the point?

*but I do understand them, They are HT, not public health experts.

The issue is as it becomes pt, ft childcare to KW / vulnerable has to be offered which impacts on ability to educate.

@Oldbagface

Bolton is now back above 200. Is that restrictions not working or poor compliance?

Or testing catching up with demand?

Are your school planning for anything else?

Not that I know of but sen schools were operating differently in June; I think they were told to get all pupils in somehow.

I think many trialled part time blended learning then.

What I would like to see is how it works in West Midlands / NE.

Similar measures and what will the impact be.

@alreadytaken

The BMJ letter is a polite way of saying we cant support Prof Heneghan, quite right too, the man is a dangerous idiot.

He is. I’ve been sent articles by him from people that I know of - but have distanced myself from - who believe in 5G and are the anti mask anti Vaxxers. He is becoming the ‘evidence’ flag to show that these views are somehow OK.

Yes Heneghan is becoming the scientist to name check if you have strong views

@NeurotrashWarrior
Thanks.
Ours did risk assessments on each pupil (I never did hear about my sons though) & allowed a few more pupils to return in June but that was KW & Vulnerable children.
Primary SEN school.
A message was sent out again today though reminding parents not to send children in with COVID symptoms - usually means someone has

So Boris has seen evidence that the spread is due to late night drinking - does anyone know where that information has been published?
I'd be interested, it's certainly a strategy they used in Belgium.
On a proper night out, younger generation (my offspring included) tend not to even go out until after ten. Maybe they'll just start earlier or just stay in, but I can see that it will reign in long drunken pub crawls and therefore lessen the mingling.

Updated hospital admission data for England from John Actuary on Twitter (including regional breakdown).
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1308434173494001666

Right, so this is interesting form a BBc article! From Prof Calum Semple:

He said there was now a rise in hospital admissions, including among women aged 20 to 40, who were at risk of exposure to the virus because of their work in hospitality, caring roles or because they were parents of schoolchildren

"I was lied to told by a union rep that there'd be mobile test vans who could be sent to schools for parents and staff to access tests more easily."

You're right NeurotrashWarrior and here they are: 🦄🦄

@TheSunIsStillShining

It turns out that in the school my son goes to there were only 4 physically present from a class of 15 (specialist GCSE subject, normal class size is 26). And it's only been 2 weeks. There is no blended learning strategy that we know of, nothing. I think it's irresponsible for HTs* to rely on gov guidance. The disruption that this whole forcing everyone back brings is not worth it. And because of no testing there is no evidence that there is a covid outbreak (or a few kids even), so PHE doesn't have to be notified, and parents are not notified either. I know this because the teacher actually told the kids, as most of the sick ones are actually sick, not isolating, so aren't even online. So they are sick, go back as soon as symptoms subside, but they still might be infectious. Then another batch get sick, and on and on.... what's the point?

*but I do understand them, They are HT, not public health experts.

Friend's son is 'just at home' no lessons.

Other children in his year are still doing lessons so he is actively missing stuff.

I know of another case where children affected as 'close contacts' were on a school bus. They've all been sent home but kids who got to school by other means didn't. So there's parts of the school catchment area effectively worse hit than others, if their parents are unable to give them a lift to school.

There are kids getting really getting a raw deal compared to others in schools that remain open. In badly affected areas the Manchester Evening news is reporting a number of schools in which every year and pupil has been affected since returning (some complete closures and others where one group has now returned).

I personally currently know of 5 bubble closures affecting people i know directly.

@NeurotrashWarrior

Are your school planning for anything else?

Not that I know of but sen schools were operating differently in June; I think they were told to get all pupils in somehow.

I think many trialled part time blended learning then.

Our SS sent home a sheet for parents to ask if they worked or not etc this week for future planning.

Basically I think the thought process will be if needed to prioritise those with 2 working parents if needs be?