Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Sorry, the figures totally overwhelm me. Are these figures indicating that infection rate is rising?

Do we know where to find the current R rate?

There is a really interesting story about a covid outbreak in Iceland.

They had managed to contain all cases there, and have been testing everyone on entry to the country.

They've suddenly picked up a new outbreak, but not only is it a new outbreak but its a new strain of the virus that hasn't been seen there before.

It turns out that because they've been testing on everyone on entry, they can trace back the outbreak to its point of entry: two french tourists who broke quarantine in August.

They've now got 40 new cases linked to these two tourists.

Iceland, to all intents and purposes, has only one point of entry for tourists in the absence of cruise ships rocking up, (the only other realistic entry point would be via cargo ships) so uniquely has the ability to monitor the vast majority of people entering the country.

So it really doesn't take a lot for transmission to affect a lot of people.

Yes, it's increased from 1 in 1400 to 1 in 900 - or from an estimated 3200 cases a day to 6000.

It's important to note that these are extrapolated figures and so the credible interval is wide. However, there does definitely appear to ha a rise.

Thanks the new thread

Intrigued by the 6000 cases a day- that’s not much more than the number of people tearing positive. I find that hard to believe if thousands are asymptomatic or can’t/won’t get a test.

Actually that is england only isn’t (the 6000 a day) not UK. And info is about a week old I suppose.

Parts of London have continued to have reasonably high levels for some time (Hackney). There are now rising levels in quite a lot of London, including Brent, Ealing, and even (slowly in) Croydon. The first 2 were hit hard first, Croydon was hit hardest. Ealing is getting the fastest rise of the 3 but it has a lot of nursing homes and is still nowhere near Warrington or Bolton levels. It's showing that London has not reached "herd immunity" though.

Hounslow is worrying because the council there seemed to be on the ball but cases are up a lot. Their Director of Public Health said " As of Wednesday 16 September, there were 88 people who have had a confirmed positive test in the last seven days, and this number is increasing even though access to testing is proving to be a challenge." Also rising in Richmond.

That's what I was thinking frazzled- but the ONS is community only ( as is ZOE) - so won't cover hospital and care homes.

ONS data is more reliable than the test figures but out of date - and a week is a long time with exponential growth. I dont remember the test figures back then but even when tests were not in short supply ONS figures suggested no more than half were being identified. So you need to at least double current positive test numbers and as we know 4x as many people want tests as can get them maybe quadruple them.

Just continuing the Newcastle discussion; I was following the start of cases rising in Aug / sept and where they were coming from.

It was particularly linked to bars and restaurants; members of staff and also customers then spreading back to homes.

I noticed a small spike in jesmond about a week or two after Alevels, no idea if linked or not, it could have been students returning to flats (huge numbers of student rentals, young professionals, big house shares such as 6 bed houses and lots of bars.)

Cases have been rumbling along the quayside and in high density housing areas and where younger people live too eg quayside, Byker, ouseburn, cowgate etc.

Now it's just spreading widely.

Ty for new thread

@alreadytaken yes it’s very interesting what’s been happening - both Ealing and Hounslow councils have been issuing very regular updates on infection rates etc. (if people have been watching them!) I’m wondering if it has something to do with them both being such mixed income boroughs. You have wealthier areas like Chiswick (Ealing and Hounslow boroughs) and less wealthy such as Southall (Hounslow). I wonder if there has been a lot of travel-seeded infection and then with the return of schools and the requirement for testing to return etc. has highlighted the cases.

The Welsh First Minister says the last time he heard from Johnson was in May, spoke to Gove on Monday of last week. It doesn't sound like they alot of collaboration going on.

thanks

@lurker101 - my London borough council has stated that the rise here was largely due to young people socialising and also returning international travellers. On the break down of cases you could see the cases first started rising in the wealthy postcodes of the borough

Interesting that primary schools are showing clusters.

After all the talk that younger children can't spread it.

Baring in mind staff and children in primaries aren't wearing masks.

I'm not in my sen primary.

Results of ONS infection survey. Clear increase in younger age groups, so much for kids not getting it, but at least it isn't at the level I feared.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020

Thanks littleowl I will keep my fingers crossed for you!

@Reastie - pillar 1 and the 100,000 care home tests aren't constrained, but some are delayed by volume. Doesn't the triple-demand issue apply only to the 62k or so, rather than to everyone?

ONS Suveillance infection survey pilot: Engiand & Wales 4-10 September

Figures for people infected are not much higher than current total of positive tests, most likely reasons:

• Survey is of private residential households and it excludes those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

• which average a much higher % infected

• Measuring data is from 1-2 weeks ago

• we could compare with # positive tests 1-2 weeks go

ONS estimate infections in that period:

• England 6,000 new cases / day ~ 1 in 900
• Wales 1,500 cases ~ 1 in 2,000

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020

" . In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 11 years, 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years.

There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West and London "

I am part of the ONS survey. I find it interesting that they ask questions about contacts as well as taking the swab, but the results of those questions aren't being published anywhere that I can see. For example, they ask how many people I have touched (outside my household) and also how many people in different age groups I have met.

Of course they only know the replies people give and not whether the answers are true, but still, might be interesting to know.

whatsnext

Many parents couldn't get tests for their children last week though.

@ancientgran

On the last thread someone said this, And absolutely on the SSP. I've heard of an employer completely abusing this to cut staff costs too i.e. enforcing two weeks isolation on SSP for employees because their child has been sent home from school with a cold, even after a negative test. It is just ensuring people lie about symptoms. I'm not sure what they mean by abusing this? People have to isolate for two weeks if the child has been sent home with covid symptoms, is the child being sent home because they have a cold or suspected covid.

That was me. I meant that the child had taken a negative covid test, and was happily back at school. The employee had no symptoms at any point, and no contact with any covid case, and therefore absolutely no reason to isolate.

@MRex thank goodness for that, those stats make much more sense. Still, it’s V worrying, with exponential growth from where we are it won’t be long before we could be at huge figures