Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

There's been a nursery & 1 primary school within our local area (Both less than 2 miles away) that have had confirmed positives. Plus quite a few more in the county.

The issue is, the nursery was staff members & there was only 1 'confirmed' case in the primary school.
Which has fed in to the 'kids are fine' mindset. Which really has not helped & they fail to see that even though children are said to get it mildly, the same can not be said for your 85 year old Gran & Grandad or even your 60 odd year old parents! Nor can the same be said for the school staff, a couple of whom (that I know of) were shielding previously.

I think the data for the positivity rate (if you can get hold of it) is published weekly.

Think its either Thursday or Friday.

I will try and keep an eye out for it.

On messaging there was a sociologist on the world at one yesterday who spoke about evidence on this which I thought was interesting. Key points were

• people have been broadly supportive and remain compliant according to polling a greater proportion of the population want the government to do more not less. Of course we know actual lockdown got greater compliance than anticipated. He also said if people are telling the truth the vast majority intend to keep to the rule of six. Obviously those that don’t are noisy about it but that does not detract.
• he said there was little evidence of lockdown fatigue- And generally war time restrictions etc suggest that people on the whole are more accepting for longer providing they see a need
• in seeing the need he actually said it is collectivism we should be playing in to - supporting your community rather than individual threat. There have been continual attempts to suggest an indie threat to covid were there isn’t one. Even the no hospital care for you if you need it doesn’t work. Those who are younger and healthier need less medical care. If you therefore say “don’t do that you could die” they come to there own sensible conclusion that they can take the risk and carry on. If you play the common good card “we need to do this to help others” then compliance is more successful . It made sense to me re New Zealand and the one nation of 5 million working to defeat this messaging which has been so effective there.
• you have to deal with the practical issue that prevent compliance including things like wages for those self isolating, provision of food etc.

It was very interesting and it makes me wonder if in areas with strong local identities like the north east they may have some success with more “come on guys we’re geordies we can fight this thing together, let’s do it!” rather than calling people selfish and idiots which seems to be happening and I never think is that successful!

Ah but you need to see my collectivism graph!! BRB

Here we are : the sociologist's optimism is lovely, but...

Piggy! Ha that is rather conclusive for U.K.

I’ve lived in the three bottom countries hmm

I bet it was a good lesson

I'd love any kind of link to any version of that World at One thing for teaching though!

The graph does explain a lot....

It was a really interesting one. We pretended to be Spi-B!

We made recommendations and everything...

Brilliant!

Year 8 of dds' school have been sent home today after a positive case was identified. Dds are awaiting test results but aren't in that year. So many people are blasé about it all.

Local news is reporting that Liverpool University has had 86 positive cases before classes restart and that they are taking disciplinary action against a number of students.

That would go some way to example why the number of cases has gone through the roof there.

@Piggywaspushed

Here we are : the sociologist's optimism is lovely, but...

That explains a HUGE amount of current uk politics...

Very large percentage increase (from a low base) in London hospital admissions reported today. I guess it's partly that but also university students returning that has the mayor worried.

Lets hope the new restrictions work.

Collectivism is not only about deaths, should also be that if you go on public crawls other people may not get their cancer treatment. But I doubt those who are most likely to spread the virus care.

Illustrates too that copying the successful strategies of Taiwan, Singapore etc would be a non-starter in the individualistic UK or USA

@Piggywaspushed - what's the bottom acid HTTPLR or whatever?

*axis not acid

Serotonin transporter gene.
I had to look it up too :)
"Culture–gene coevolutionary theory posits that cultural values have evolved, are adaptive and influence the social and physical environments under which genetic selection operates. Here, we examined the association between cultural values of individualism–collectivism and allelic frequency of the serotonin transporter functional polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) as well as the role this culture–gene association may play in explaining global variability in prevalence of pathogens and affective disorders."

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2842692/

The problem with Sen schools and also all schools tbh is their cohorts and set ups are extremely different.

I'm increasingly surprised at the range of "types" of Sen schools even within 1-2 neighbouring LEAs. They all have very different specialities and set ups.

And often funding I feel.

rather than calling people selfish and idiots which seems to be happening and I never think is that successful!

It never works, as no-one thinks they're being selfish, it's always an othering - so it doesn't change behaviour other than judging others and causing conflict. The exact opposite of what you want in a community response.

I think very local cases will have a greater effect than National numbers, which people are weary of.

I'm also not convinced this will work, the deaths and serious cases are not uniformly distributed, so people will not necessarily know many cases, maybe just great aunt maud who'd had a good innings and had lost her marbles a few years back. All at the same time as the deprived groups are being utterly trashed - yet still have to go out to work to facilitate the privileged enjoying their lockdown lite and coming into contact with those who didn't take precautions.

So, piggys fab lesson plus that paper means that cultures where there was more prevalence of a gene that disposes individuals to anxiety co evolved collectivism?

Mrex it's a measure of how genetically engrained the particular study found it to be : ie how much it was seen to be in nature and how much part of a political system as such. Not much of interest there except perhaps A and Japan . The Japan one is seen as a reaction (slight) to WW2.

Oh, I see sun got there before me more intellectually

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/younger-women-bearing-brunt-of-second-wave-of-covid-in-uk

Article here about increase in woman aged between 20 & 40 being admitted to hospital. There were a few across this site blaming schools for this. Article suggests its not linked to schools reopening, but it does show how we all need to be careful no matter what our age is.

USA has officially exceeded 200,000 deaths

(The NYT was showing some weeks ago that, hardly surprising, excess deaths were > 200,000)