Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

(Sorry for rather hurried OP with a dupliucate line about thread 18 !
I just returned from the gym to find the old thread was full to bursting)

Thanks for the new thread

Thank you!

ONS Surveillance report is not out yet, but this report on the addition risk from disabilities is new:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by disability status, England and Wales: 2 March to 14 July 2020

www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/uncertaintyandhowwemeasureit#statistical-significance

•	compares the risk of death involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) according to a person's disability status as recorded in the 2011 Census; 
people are counted as disabled if they said their daily activities were limited a little or limited a lot by a health problem or disability 		lasting or expected to last at least 12 months

•	Disabled people (as defined) made up almost 6 in 10 (59%) of all deaths involving COVID-19 in this period; 
	disabled people made up around 16% of the study population followed from the 2011 Census.

•	This is 39% of male Covid deaths for males aged 9 to 64 years
	and 67% of female Covid deaths for females aged 65+

•	Both males & females aged 9+ who were either disabled and limited a lot or a little in 2011 had a <a class="break-all" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/uncertaintyandhowwemeasureit#statistical-significance" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">statistically significant</a>t_ higher age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of death involving COVID-19 in this period than those who were non-disabled; 
	male and female disabled people who were limited a lot had a statistically significantly higher ASMR of death involving COVID-19 than disabled people who were limited a little.

When did the surge in cases begin?

Apparently 10 hospitality venues in Warrington have been directly linked to outbreaks.

I get the impression that there has been something of a crackdown / venues freaking out over a possible local lockdown this week.

Figures this morning do seem to suggest the numbers have stopped going up in the town, but they have to be taken with a pinch of salt because of the lack of tests.

Gosh @BigChocFrenzy that's very important info re disabilities and death from Covid!

Am I right in thinking there's going to be quite a large overlap between those defined as disabled and those with pre-existing conditions?

I remember when autism appeared as a condition in some death stats months ago, and Iirc, we weren't sure at the time whether it was being included under pre-existing conditions. But I know you'll know the answer to this Bigchoc.

Hancock's statement doesn't mean the UK is likely to have a 2nd lockdown in the near future or even during a winter spike;
but no responsible health minister could rule it out 100% for an emergency

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/circuit-break-plans-for-england-to-prevent-new-covid-lockdown

Hancock was responding to reports that Downing Street is considering ordering restaurants, pubs and other hospitality businesses to close early – or shut altogether –
as a short-term “circuit-breaker”.
Households could also be told not to mix with each other.

Hancock told Sky News:
“A national lockdown is the last line of defence
and we want to use local action, and we want people to follow the rule of six, in order to avoid it.”
.....
Anxiety in Whitehall has been exacerbated by the shaky state of the testing system.

The test and trace boss, Dido Harding, told MPs on Thursday demand for tests was outstripping supply by three to four times

• and conceded they had not anticipated the sharp increase as children returned to schools. < then they are fools >

Thanks for the new thread? Anyone know the R rate for posts in this thread atm? 😝

I meant !

I do think the rise in cases is more to do with hospitality (Eat out to help out) than schools.

Interesting that (from the end of the last thread) the numbers are rising in London. Are the politicians using "the north" (they are aware that it exists, apparently) as a test bed for how to deal with local lockdowns? 🤔

BCF

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54193770

Have you seen this? Maybe it's the future of football?

London is rising again but at a lower level right now. I wonder if widespread and uncontrollable transmission of the virus feb March has helped the south in the longterm but the north was more protected by lockdown having less spread to start is now seeing the mass rise of cases Only time will tell.

Where I live one town is doing worse than others but I'm south east where commuting to London was common until mid March. Now everyone that can is still home working. The town that's doing worst is very middle class but over crowded. Many schools have 3 form intake per year.

@Augustbreeze

Gosh *@BigChocFrenzy* that's very important info re disabilities and death from Covid!

Am I right in thinking there's going to be quite a large overlap between those defined as disabled and those with pre-existing conditions?

I remember when autism appeared as a condition in some death stats months ago, and Iirc, we weren't sure at the time whether it was being included under pre-existing conditions. But I know you'll know the answer to this Bigchoc.

.... Pre-existing conditions are not defined the same way as in that ONS report - the NHS don't use the 2011 census data, but much more recent data

However, I have an NHS England datasheet classifying deaths for various groups, including death by pre-existing condition,
which does include autism, also LDs
plus anyone treated for MH problems

That particular datasheet is

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-27-August-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

People in institutions...

If demand is outstripping supply 3 to 4 fold according to Dido Harding, and taking testing numbers at roughly 200,000 for a day (I’m underestimating) and at a 1.5% positive result (I think it’s higher but let’s be kind and underestimate) based on double the demand, that makes an estimate of 3000 additional cases yesterday that would have otherwise been confirmed through sufficient testing, making the daily count in the 6000s.

If we take 2.5% positive ratio and triple the amount of tests carried out (potentially more realistic figure based on what information she has given us, I’ve done 2.5% of 200,000 x 3 that’s more like 15000 extra cases on top of yesterday’s positive figures.

This is a very crude measurement though and seems a colossal increase and I don’t want to scaremonger. Could this actually be right or have I got my maths wrong?

@pussycatinboots

BCF

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54193770

Have you seen this? Maybe it's the future of football?

... Maybe the future of interactions between those who assess / tolerate risk very differently

I also think some level of acquired immunity is helping London. The cases have been going up but nowhere as fast as in the North.

The immunity may not be sufficient to stop the spread but looks like it is slowing it down.

My maths is wrong, I think I quadrupled the tests not doubled so I think to three fold increase I’d 2.5% of 200,000x2 which gives potentially 10,000 additional unconfirmed cases a day. Still a scary amount.

@RedToothBrush

People in institutions...

... I would like to know what % were living in institutions, but that wasn't given directly However, they included those who were only "disabled a little" so unlikely to be in an institution

The ONS dataset "Counts of deaths involving COVID-19 and all deaths by disability status, England and Wales: 2 March 2020 to 14 July 2020 " gives the numbers and definitions

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fcountsofdeathsinvolvingcovid19andalldeathsbydisabilitystatusenglandandwales%2f2march2020to14july2020/countsdeathscovid19alldeathsdisabilitystatusenglandwales2march14july2020.xlsx

On the last thread someone said this, And absolutely on the SSP. I've heard of an employer completely abusing this to cut staff costs too i.e. enforcing two weeks isolation on SSP for employees because their child has been sent home from school with a cold, even after a negative test. It is just ensuring people lie about symptoms. I'm not sure what they mean by abusing this? People have to isolate for two weeks if the child has been sent home with covid symptoms, is the child being sent home because they have a cold or suspected covid.

@neurotrash
The S Wales cases have rapidly taken hold too since August. Some of the seeding had been effectively tracked and traced but it evidently quickly took hold again in some communities. Combo of covidiotry and some premises not enforcing social distancing etc. RCT acted quickly to slap enforcement notices on some shops but needs better vigilance going forward to ensure the wacamole principle is being applied as swiftly as possible.

ONS infection survey is out. It confirms a rise in cases, esp in London and the NW.

An estimated 59,800 people (95% credible interval: 46,900 to 75,200) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 4 to 10 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 900 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,200 to 1 in 700)

•	The estimate shows the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
•	In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 11 years, 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years.
•	There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West and London.
•	During the most recent week (4 to 10 September 2020), we estimate there were around 1.10 (95% credible interval: 0.77 to 1.51) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population in England, equating to around 6,000 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 4,200 to 8,300)

The 6000 new cases a day ONS figure compares with 6478 from the ZOE app

Sorry the other thread closed before I had a chance to reply.

@Whydoyouthinkthatthen Yeah, i would really like to have More bespoke options - like a weekly option. But I really need to get some sponsorship first. It’s proving more difficult to get sponsorship than I expected. I guess companies are struggling themselves financially. I won’t be able to keep paying for everything myself indefinitely. But I’ve a few conversations going at the moment so hopefully one or the other will come through which might give a bit more IT budget to build out more bespoke functionality. Fingers crossed.