Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

(By the way, those 87 are all age ranges!)

The ones figures are about a week out if date and report around 6k infections a day. This is likely an underestimate, given those likely to be taking part being in lower risk groups/more careful.

Cases are doubling every 7-8 days. So that's likely around 12k infections a day now.

Track and trace estimate demand is 3-4 times greater than availability. if we take it as 3.5 times greater than demand, and an average of 3.5k cases, that would be an estimated 14k cases, not far off the ons estimate, a week on...

Scroll to the end. It shows in Europe the UK is doing the most tests per 100K population and has one of the lowest positive rates. Maybe the testing is misdirected in the UK?

www.corona-data.ch/

4322 cases reported today

I don't like it at all.

By the way, those who recall the debate about Belgium - 2028 today, it's not looking good there either.

Following

Just seen the figures announced today! Bloody hell.

Thanks!

@littleowl1

Sorry the other thread closed before I had a chance to reply.

@Whydoyouthinkthatthen Yeah, i would really like to have More bespoke options - like a weekly option. But I really need to get some sponsorship first. It’s proving more difficult to get sponsorship than I expected. I guess companies are struggling themselves financially. I won’t be able to keep paying for everything myself indefinitely. But I’ve a few conversations going at the moment so hopefully one or the other will come through which might give a bit more IT budget to build out more bespoke functionality. Fingers crossed.

Have you thought of charging a fee?

Would even something as low as £1 a week or month from users cover your costs?or even different pay models for different levels of information?

It's such a simple yet effective and useful resource I know I'd pay a subscription as long as it was reasonable!

Whereas the number of cases is concerning let’s look back to when there was a similar number of cases reported at the beginning of April.
Today 184 people reported to have been admitted to hospital in England.
On the 1st April it was 3000. Obviously you only got a test back then if you were very ill.
But this just shows how we can’t really compare the numbers we have now with what we had back then

@Frazzled2207

Whereas the number of cases is concerning let’s look back to when there was a similar number of cases reported at the beginning of April. Today 184 people reported to have been admitted to hospital in England. On the 1st April it was 3000. Obviously you only got a test back then if you were very ill. But this just shows how we can’t really compare the numbers we have now with what we had back then

But we can't look back to the 1st April - because they were only testing when in hospital. It's impossible to compare them.

Cases are rising, so are the amount of hospital admins.
It's concerning to see the rise in cases NOW, when the testing system is having issues & just as we are going in to Autumn/Winter season.

I'd rather see the numbers come back under control with nicely falling cases and then hold a debate about not comparing with earlier in the year, accusations of over-reactions etc. That would be nice.

Oh agree absolutely. I just hope things flatten out within the next couple of weeks. I’m not optimistic though.
I’m just saying that sky news blaring about the cases being worst since May etc are misleading.

Hospital admissions on 15th August were 38. On 15th September they were 194. Still nowhere near where they were but a worrying increase in a month.

[quote Abricot1993]Scroll to the end. It shows in Europe the UK is doing the most tests per 100K population and has one of the lowest positive rates. Maybe the testing is misdirected in the UK?

www.corona-data.ch/[/quote]
....
UK positivity in all these charts - not just this one - comparing countries is 1.4%

I can only remember some very high local values for Bolton, Liverpool etc though so maybe that Uk % is up to date and I'm thinking of those ?

@alreadytaken

Parts of London have continued to have reasonably high levels for some time (Hackney). There are now rising levels in quite a lot of London, including Brent, Ealing, and even (slowly in) Croydon. The first 2 were hit hard first, Croydon was hit hardest. Ealing is getting the fastest rise of the 3 but it has a lot of nursing homes and is still nowhere near Warrington or Bolton levels. It's showing that London has not reached "herd immunity" though.

Hounslow is worrying because the council there seemed to be on the ball but cases are up a lot. Their Director of Public Health said " As of Wednesday 16 September, there were 88 people who have had a confirmed positive test in the last seven days, and this number is increasing even though access to testing is proving to be a challenge." Also rising in Richmond.

Richmond has a lot of private schools=all London as a catchment area. These kids come through mostly Hammersmith or Wandsworth, both having relatively high numbers. Plus there's the uni (roehampton lane). And if Kingston uni starts, I'll bet their numbers will rise as well... :(

*I have to say I have no idea how many private schools (or public with all london catchment area, if there are ones like that) are in other boroughs.

Another experiment:
My football club is starting the season with 10.000 live spectators. There's going to be miles of distance between them.

@MRex

I'd rather see the numbers come back under control with nicely falling cases and then hold a debate about not comparing with earlier in the year, accusations of over-reactions etc. That would be nice.

Agree with this totally.

Higher viral loads being seen in community testing? (In Wales, at least).

"Just a general feedback from the frontline. The ct values we’re seeing during this upsurge are highly indicative of very acute infection. Numbers in the low teens are not that uncommon. None of this is unexpected, all of it is real."
mobile.twitter.com/SmallRedOne/status/1306976496163213312

Re numbers in London boroughs, if you follow Richard@RP131 on Twitter, his very useful and granular charts show that in, for example, Richmond and Wandsworth rolling weekly numbers both absolutely and per 100k have fallen in the last week. They have definitely risen from a very low point over the summer but they are not increasing steadily. coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Week_20200918.png and coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/WeekActual_20200918.png. In fact, they seem to have fallen in many London boroughs (though have only skimmed so have not checked for all).

His might be a link to add as all his graphs and tables are extremely useful and he updates daily. I check daily for my area and my Mum's.

The Principal of St Andrews University has asked students to remain in their rooms all weekend !
Am wondering how that will go ......

4322!! Jeez. And if we had proper testing....?

@Ontopofthesunset Thanks!

I asked this a few days ago but what are Italy and Germany doing differently to France and Spain?

The answer I got before was they would be going the same way soon. But they haven't as far as I can see.