Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

Another experiment: My football club is starting the season with 10.000 live spectators. There's going to be miles of distance between them.

My local team would be grateful for half that on a normal Saturday. There's no way you can fit that number into a stadium - imagine the rush for a pie or a pee at half time.

BCF that looks like a steep rise for 85+ to me too. Worrying.

@MrsPerrywinkle

Hopefully this trend continues, I understand the curve in Spain looks the same.

.... Looks like rate of increase in Spain & France is starting to level off, but cases themselves continuing to increase UK cases don't seem to be levelling off yet

The problem with looking at specimen date, especially atm for the Uk, is that results from the previous 2-3 days are likely to be incomplete / lost in the Channel !

@FingonTheValiant

France is rocketing up 13215 cases and 154 deaths today.

We’ve got a third of a class send home and the odd contact from other classes, so school is still clinging on, but teachers are getting pretty sceptical about how long we’ll be able to keep going. If any of the others test positive we’ll be looking at a year group closure.

At what point will a school say it is not safe as there are too few staff to pupil ratio?

Poor Iran:
Officials there say they are entering their THIRD wave

France

13,215 cases
Deaths in the previous 24 hours are either 123 or 154, depending on which figures to take

Sadly this week's continuing rise in deaths - more than double last week - has been expected, as it was known infections had increased in the elderly as well

This is what is really concerning me about UK infections:
the rise in pillar 2 positivity for the age 85+,
also the rise in pillar 1, which would include care home staff

pussycat the threshold for school closure is three positive tests in teaching staff. As yet it doesn’t seem to have occurred to the LA that we could have teachers out isolating without tests and have to shut because of that. I honestly don’t know if / when they’d decide that.

I've just seen a headline from one of the newspaper pages on Facebook saying march levels of hospital admissions expected next week. Sorry I don't have the link. Will try and find it

@Whydoyouthinkthatthen

I am part of the ONS survey. I find it interesting that they ask questions about contacts as well as taking the swab, but the results of those questions aren't being published anywhere that I can see. For example, they ask how many people I have touched (outside my household) and also how many people in different age groups I have met.

Of course they only know the replies people give and not whether the answers are true, but still, might be interesting to know.

@Whydoyouthinkthatthen I am.part of this study too. Do you get your results? We do not. I assume someone would contact us if we were positive?

Found it www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/scientists-claim-march-hospital-levels-22706666?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mirror_main

PM: 2nd wave is inevitable

BJ would have received the opinions of Whitty, Vallance & other expert advisers before making this statement:

The hope / expectation is that this 2nd wave can be kept to a fraction of the 1st wave,
with the knowledge about treatments & effective SD measures gained since then, together with the massively increased test, t&t systems

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/18/coronavirus-live-news-global-cases-on-brink-of-30m-as-france-reports-record-new-infections?page=with:block-5f64e7ee8f08e8fc8e2f67f1#block-5f64e7ee8f08e8fc8e2f67f1

"“Obviously, we’re looking very carefully at the spread of the pandemic as it evolves over the last few days and there’s no question, as I’ve said for several weeks now, that we could expect [and] are now seeing a second wave coming in.

We are seeing it in France, in Spain, across Europe – it has been absolutely, I’m afraid, inevitable we were going to see it in this country.”

Fingon thanks.

[quote Oldbagface]Found it www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/scientists-claim-march-hospital-levels-22706666?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mirror_main[/quote]
...
I am very dubious of that timescale

Jumping from only a low base to March-April scale admissions within a week .... I wonder if the Mirror completely misunderstood and misquoted

Even cases would get nowhere near the real levels then, with the current doubling every week

• they'd have to be doubling about every day and that's definitely not happening atm

Then there is a lag of about 8 days between infections and hospitalisations

Thanks BCF. I do wish they wouldn't do this. It creates unessecsary anxiety. However, the same the other way with the likes of the mobile phone man on QT last night telling us the virus had weakened. This sort of stuff just encourages complacency.

Independent Sage, in the article were referring to 17th March date, rather than end of March. That was when the cases were starting to rapidly increase, so maybe not so outlandish.
Raging at Boris Johnson, with his pish that he's been warning of a second wave for weeks. No, last week it was get back to work and Eat Out to help out, only finished less than 3 weeks ago.

Thank you for your reply @BigChocFrenzy

@BigChocFrenzy

That's worrying, from the PHE testing report:

I'm looking at the % rise in pillar 1 tests
and the % rise in Age 85+ for pillar 2 - seems much higher than other age groups
(but I have a visual disability and struggle to distinguish some curves)

If I've read those 2 pictures correctly, then they are screaming "care home infections" to me

Healthcare workers on the NHSers thread state that it is in care homes again....

@Perihelion

Independent Sage, in the article were referring to 17th March date, rather than end of March. That was when the cases were starting to rapidly increase, so maybe not so outlandish. Raging at Boris Johnson, with his pish that he's been warning of a second wave for weeks. No, last week it was get back to work and Eat Out to help out, only finished less than 3 weeks ago.

I'd say we're close to 17th March figures already. Week beginning 16th March we had: 22, 16, 34, 43, 36, 56, 35

This week so far we've had:
9, 27, 20, 21, 27

However the week beginning 23rd March it did ramp up with:
74, 149, 186, 183, 284, 294, 214

Which are clearly a lot more.

Speaking of my own setting, we've had winters where many staff are off poorly and it's come close to closure. It would probably be discussion with governors and the local LA. It can be very individual to each school's cohort. Things like enough first aiders on site needs to be considered.

It's def in care homes again....least 15 i am aware of with cases in and essentially shutting out non-essential visitors

Just took a look at Worldometer figures. Are Spain case numbers (4,697) likely to be preliminary? Just trying to work out how they post numbers.

Shocked to see the figures in France this evening and very disappointed since it looked like they were leveling out. The deaths are alarming and would not have surprised me but I have just read there is a catch up of 76 deaths today from a region.

@tobee

Just took a look at Worldometer figures. Are Spain case numbers (4,697) likely to be preliminary? Just trying to work out how they post numbers.

Spain are doing something where positives need to be verified so yes this figure will probably change

@tobee

Just took a look at Worldometer figures. Are Spain case numbers (4,697) likely to be preliminary? Just trying to work out how they post numbers.

Just checked one of the Spanish newspapers. 15k positive. 4.5k in the last 24h

We can't compare confirmed cases in March to now
The March figures were in reality 20-50 x bigger than the cases found
and that was the hidden iceberg

Hospitalisations and deaths skyrocketed after that, because cases were on the high gradient part of an exponential curve

Deaths were soon > 1,000 daily and stayed there for 22 days, peaking at 1,445

Going by PHE and ONS figures for infections, even if they are underestimating a lot, hospitalisations will continue to rise
and the figures suggest care homes are seeing more infections, which will increase deaths

However, cases don't look as if they are increasing anything like in March

We might sadly see the current French levels of deaths within a few weeks, because of the spreaad to the elderly,
but that would be 1/10 of peak values
To be blunt, that is manageable.

==> it is sensible to increase measures, hence Rule of 6, but imo there is not yet the evidence to justify the restrictions Indie Sage are suggesting

They may need to happen later in the year, though - it will depend then on death forecasts given to the govt

@BigChocFrenzy

We can't compare confirmed cases in March to now The March figures were in reality 20-50 x bigger than the cases found and that was the hidden iceberg

Hospitalisations and deaths skyrocketed after that, because cases were on the high gradient part of an exponential curve

Deaths were soon > 1,000 daily and stayed there for 22 days, peaking at 1,445

Going by PHE and ONS figures for infections, even if they are underestimating a lot, hospitalisations will continue to rise
and the figures suggest care homes are seeing more infections, which will increase deaths

However, cases don't look as if they are increasing anything like in March

We might sadly see the current French levels of deaths within a few weeks, because of the spreaad to the elderly,
but that would be 1/10 of peak values
To be blunt, that is manageable.

==> it is sensible to increase measures, hence Rule of 6, but imo there is not yet the evidence to justify the restrictions Indie Sage are suggesting

They may need to happen later in the year, though - it will depend then on death forecasts given to the govt

Great post BigChoc good to read more sensible posts on here tonight