Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Ontopofthesunset

Re numbers in London boroughs, if you follow Richard@RP131 on Twitter, his very useful and granular charts show that in, for example, Richmond and Wandsworth rolling weekly numbers both absolutely and per 100k have fallen in the last week. They have definitely risen from a very low point over the summer but they are not increasing steadily. coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Week_20200918.png and coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/WeekActual_20200918.png. In fact, they seem to have fallen in many London boroughs (though have only skimmed so have not checked for all).

His might be a link to add as all his graphs and tables are extremely useful and he updates daily. I check daily for my area and my Mum's.

Interestingly though, neighbouring to Wandsworth and Richmond, numbers are going up in Merton. It's not as if people aren't moving from borough to borough.

Second wave of Covid-19 coming to UK, says PM www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

No shit Sherlock! If Boris is saying it then it's probably a whole lot worse than we think.

Lots of people are playing fast and loose with the rules. Drove past a group of people on the common yesterday and they were a group of about 10. Not much social distancing that I could see. The messages have been so mixed that you can plead ignorance.

Pritti "shop all your neighbours"
Johnson "only Animal House parties should be shopped"

@tobee

Lots of people are playing fast and loose with the rules. Drove past a group of people on the common yesterday and they were a group of about 10. Not much social distancing that I could see. The messages have been so mixed that you can plead ignorance.

Pritti "shop all your neighbours"
Johnson "only Animal House parties should be shopped"

Obviously my example is not in anyway unusual.

@Bercows

Second wave of Covid-19 coming to UK, says PM www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

No shit Sherlock! If Boris is saying it then it's probably a whole lot worse than we think.

Wonder what measures he plans on bringing in - I'm in the NE and under local lockdown / restrictions.

@MRex

I'd rather see the numbers come back under control with nicely falling cases and then hold a debate about not comparing with earlier in the year, accusations of over-reactions etc. That would be nice.

Absolutely this

@Shitfuckoh I've noticed he says he doesn't want to do things or won't do them, then does them. He always acts at the 11th hour. I'm not a fan of local restrictions purely for the lack of clarity and people don't live in isolated towns with a clearly marked border. They travel across borders and the local restrictions are difficult to understand, apply and enforce. At least when it was national then we all knew what was what although some were still confused. I totally understand though that those in areas with very low rates won't want to have restrictions. Although maybe restrictions would prevent them having high rates like other places?

I think shielding needs to be reintroduced and those that are shielding should have the option to keep their school age dc at home with access to online learning from school plus whatever additional things parents want or are able to teach them. We spent plenty of time baking, watching educational things like the Victorian Slum series, exploring outside in the woods, gardening, cooking, and generally trying to keep their brains engaged. This needs to be supported as not all have access to laptops. I'd much rather all dc be at school but I have to consider the wider issues for our family in terms of my health.

It's shit.

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

Another experiment: My football club is starting the season with 10.000 live spectators. There's going to be miles of distance between them.

..... If your club is in Berlin, that sounds a very risky idea

Germany's 7-day incidence has crept up to 12 / 100,000 and R ~ 1.2 is higher than for some weeks
Berlin is 14.9 / 100,000 - as the capital it's naturally tended to be higher

imo, time for most German states - excluding the low pop density ones with v few cases - to cut down on the bollocks of 30 or 100 people at parties, events etc

Hopefully this trend continues, I understand the curve in Spain looks the same.

@BigChocFrenzy

No, my club is Dortmund, though I left the Ruhr 30 years ago.
It's 10.000 people in a stadium designed for 80.000.

This is also an encouraging sign, too early to call a trend perhaps.

I have anxiety and actually found this thread so helpful last time and coming back to it again
Thankyou.

@tobee

I asked this a few days ago but what are Italy and Germany doing differently to France and Spain?

The answer I got before was they would be going the same way soon. But they haven't as far as I can see.

.... I don't know Italy, but imo Germany's track & trace is a signifcant factor in keeping down the rise in cases

Also, an efficient & organised test system.
About 1.1 million tests weekly, comparable to UK, but tests are approved and done by HCPs, hence few tests "wasted" or lost
Labs still comfortably within capacity and doing tests for UK & France too

btw, as I've been predicting, Germany's rate has been very slowly rising the last 1-2 weeks, after a lull.
I expect this to continue through Autumn and winter - but imo measures such as masks in school, # people meeting up etc will need to be tightened to avoid getting on the fast track part of exponential growth

I suspect we'll see a continuing rise over the next several months in all the more densely populated European countries - the sparsely populated ones might avoid significant rates, looking at the 2-3 v low pop German states

Hopefully no country will return to the March-April crisis situation

Are the case curves really dropping or is it showing the delay in access/processing?

[quote Prokupatuscrakedatus]@BigChocFrenzy

No, my club is Dortmund, though I left the Ruhr 30 years ago.
It's 10.000 people in a stadium designed for 80.000.[/quote]
....
North Rhine-Westphalia - as the highest population German state - has also consistently had above average cases, currently 13.9 / 100,000

It might imo be OK for a club in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania or Saxony-Anhalt
both currently with rates < 3 / 100,000 and < 30 deaths / million
Those 2 low pop density states should generally be allowed to continue more relaxed rules to the rest of Germany

Total < 30 deaths / million - don't panic !

@EducatingArti

Are the case curves really dropping or is it showing the delay in access/processing?

Hmmm

With UK on 4,322 cases and such difficulty in actually obtaining tests in some high infection areas,
I'm doubtful that test positivity is genuinely decreasing

As always, we have to wait for the ONS report next Friday to have more reliable data for this last week !

However, the PHE report has data 7-12 Sept and partially up to 15 Sept

The rise looks like it is levelling off,
but the report advises caution a data for the final week is incomplete, with more samples to come

@TheSunIsStillShining Most kids going to Richmond schools eg Ibstock will be driven as very little public transport

That's worrying, from the PHE testing report:

I'm looking at the % rise in pillar 1 tests
and the % rise in Age 85+ for pillar 2 - seems much higher than other age groups
(but I have a visual disability and struggle to distinguish some curves)

If I've read those 2 pictures correctly, then they are screaming "care home infections" to me

[quote whatsnext2]@TheSunIsStillShining Most kids going to Richmond schools eg Ibstock will be driven as very little public transport[/quote]
Some parents where my son goes opted to do their own ferry through the Thames since the bridge is totally closed.
To me the fact that some parents have boats big enough is mind boggling in itself :) By the time I got wind of it though they have been shut down by the police.
I see st paul's, the swedish school and the harrodian. Apart fdrom the Swedish, both big ones have about 70% of their kids (the big ones) come by bus from train stations. The schools organized special buses as there is only 2 small tfl buses every 30 mins on that route. I was surprise on this high number

UK hospitalisations at 134 would be way down on previous figures of even England (194, 183)
Hence look incomplete

@MrsPerrywinkle

I wish your graph was positive. On face value, it looks like it, but unfortunately I don’t believe it is. Tests generally take a few days to process and be recorded, so the apparent drop is only because the tests on very recent days haven’t been processed yet.

France is rocketing up 13215 cases and 154 deaths today.

We’ve got a third of a class send home and the odd contact from other classes, so school is still clinging on, but teachers are getting pretty sceptical about how long we’ll be able to keep going. If any of the others test positive we’ll be looking at a year group closure.

Thanks for the new thread. Have a sense of impending doom today and the clarity here helps