Is this surge in cases down to foreign holidays?

[notevenat20]

The numbers are now going up alarmingly and if the exponential growth continues we will be up to our worst peak by Christmas,

So what caused it?

A lot of the increase in infections happened in very late August (since numbers went up by specimen date around 1st September, and you don't test positive for 5 or more days), so I'm not sure the increase in R is down to schools reopening.

But it could have caused by people returning from holiday?

What do people think?

[quote SheepandCow]@Walkaround
You assumed I was referring solely to the UK when I referred to travel industry bosses.

It's an international industry, one that lobbied worldwide against temporary travel restriction. Of course it has to be the whole world. And that's what I meant. Every country in the world should've temporarily closed their borders at the start of the year. All would by now be back to normal[/quote]
Closed their borders at the start of the year? When there were no known infections outside of China? When WHO hadn't even confirmed human-to-human transmission?

Yeah, there'd have been absolutely no problem convincing governments, businesses and the general public of the wisdom of that idea.

I do think august was a bad time not only foreign holidays but people going around the UK during the school summer holidays, meeting up with relatives etc.
September will be even worse with the full effect of schools back and students moving across the country.

The Bournemouth etc beach crowds and the BLM protests caused no significant transmission. Eat out to help out - with the vast majority of people eating with their immediate family - not a problem.

Breathing in the faces of lots of people in a confined space - crowded bars and family gatherings - BIG TRANSMISSION. That is why there is the rule of six. In a restaurant you don’t touch and get close to people at other tables, so infection is unlikely.

People don’t like the family rules for various reasons so play the risk there down.

It’s a bad time to have friends and family in your home, too. It’s a bad time to behave like a human being.

@IcedPurple Well obviously that's the time to have done it. Before the virus spread. That would've been the whole point of the world temporarily shutting borders. And yes that's what I was saying. Such a terrible shame that those in authority worldwide (with exceptions like Australia and New Zealand) didn't have the tiny bit of foresight to see beyond the middle of next week.

@Walkaround That's the point. The virus wouldn't have got to Brazil or India had the whole world shut their borders temporarily at the start. Incidentally they seem to be doing better at controlling it than us so far. Our death rate is worse, taking into account their populations are much bigger than ours.

China has got the virus under control. Had everywhere else temporarily closed their borders at the start, all would be normal (everywhere) by now.

Put simply. The travel industry stamped their feet saying no no no we can't temporarily shut down. The result is, instead of a couple of months downtime, it's been months and months and months. With no end yet in sight.

@IcedPurple Well obviously that's the time to have done it. Before the virus spread. That would've been the whole point of the world temporarily shutting borders. And yes that's what I was saying. Such a terrible shame that those in authority worldwide (with exceptions like Australia and New Zealand) didn't have the tiny bit of foresight to see beyond the middle of next week.

But at the start of the year the WHO was still saying there was no evidence the virus could be passed from human to human. China was barely admitting there was even a virus at all. Shutting down the world's borders would have been a non-starter, and you know it. You're not asking for a 'tiny bit of foresight', you're asking for a crystal ball.

Even much praised NZ and Australia didn't close their borders until much later. And Australia hasn't been doing that well of late. How long do you think countries should shut themselves up for and how do you think essential trade can take place?

Whatever the WHO did or didn't say the evidence was staring everyone in the face.
We all saw what was happening in China. It was very obviously contagious. Sometimes it doesn't matter what someone says. The facts speak for themselves.

@SheepandCow

Whatever the WHO did or didn't say the evidence was staring everyone in the face. We all saw what was happening in China. It was very obviously contagious. Sometimes it doesn't matter what someone says. The facts speak for themselves.

So on January 1st you know there was going to be a global pandemic originating in Wuhan? And that the only solution was for each of the world's 200+ countries to shut their borders to all traffic? You 'SheepandCow' knew this, even though the WHO was saying no such thing and life was going on perfectly normally everywhere but China?

Sure you did.

Australia is doing very well. Most of the population are living more or less normal lives. Schools, offices, theatres, shops, restaurants, bars. Swift measures were taken in Victoria to get on top of their (by our standards) tiny outbreak. It's getting under control. They'll be back to normal a long time before us. There will almost certainly be a vaccine by next year. In the meantime they'll manage. It might not be absolutely perfect but it's a hell of a lot better than our situation.
Until around fifty years ago no-one regularly flew around the world. Life went on (with less environmental damage).

@SheepandCow - and sometimes some people pretend they have the knowledge and wisdom of God... Do you really think the virus had not got into India or Brazil already, SheepandCow? Or that those countries actually have any realistic idea of what their excess deaths are? Do you have any idea how long it actually takes for it to become obvious that you have a novel virus that mimics the symptoms of huge numbers of other viruses already circulating in a country?

@IcedPurple Go back through Mumsnet. You'll see that some of us did indeed see what was going on at the start.

I expect there are multiple factors but the main one must be the way social distancing has been abandoned.

For the last few weeks my FB is full of people meeting up for the first time in a while, with their arms round each other. This might be friendship groups, sports events, family, even a diamond wedding celebration. Not long ago these people were waving at each other through windows, even the most zealous rule followers/enforcers seem to have abandoned it.

Can any of us really answer though? Government basically opened up too many things at once - can we really work out what caused it? Maybe it's a combination of several things?

Anyone making confident statements about what should have been done and how that would have panned out is talking out of the wrong end of their anatomy.

[quote SheepandCow]@IcedPurple Go back through Mumsnet. You'll see that some of us did indeed see what was going on at the start.[/quote]
This is hilarious.

SheepandCow and other random MNers were better informed than the WHO and every single govt in the world.

@HesterShaw1

Tougher restrictions won't be far away, care homes are already reporting significant rises in cases since August. The selfish behaviour and stupidity along with non compliance will bring a second lock down before Christmas.

Ah that word again..."selfish". The blame game.

The population as a whole has been remarkably compliant. They were told on 4th June that they could travel to other areas after being confined for over two months, so they did. They were told to eat out to help out, so they did. They were told to support the British tourism industry, so they did.

However this still makes them selfish and stupid, according to trial by social media and MN.

The virus is not spreading again people people are "selfish". It's spreading because it's a contagious virus.

HesterShaw1

This thread is full of people saying "I think...."

It doesn't matter what you think. It has no bearing on the facts and the reality, which no one actually knows, other than the fact that it's a highly contagious virus which will run its course and the fade away.

But you thought you'd give your opinion anyway, oh the irony!

They were not told to have house parties, they were told to socially distance with visitors in the homes and at pubs/restaurants, but many did NOT.

YES, it's a virus that spreads, but PEOPLE spread it, no contact - no spread!

People are responsible for its spread