Is this surge in cases down to foreign holidays?

[notevenat20]

The numbers are now going up alarmingly and if the exponential growth continues we will be up to our worst peak by Christmas,

So what caused it?

A lot of the increase in infections happened in very late August (since numbers went up by specimen date around 1st September, and you don't test positive for 5 or more days), so I'm not sure the increase in R is down to schools reopening.

But it could have caused by people returning from holiday?

What do people think?

It’s groups of friends meeting up in bars/restaurants/at home and no longer bothering with social distancing.

People though that the relaxing of the rules - being able to meet up with other households, go to the pub etc meant that you no longer had to social distance and could hug and share food etc.

@Friendsoftheearth

I feel very sorry for the people living on the Greek Islands with so little in the way of medical facilities now seeing a surge in covid that they are not equipped to deal with thanks to tourism.

Tourism is what drives the economy of these islands. Most of them were desperate for tourism to re-start.

Northern Italy was a perfect storm.
Patient Zero in very first cases were two Chinese tourists, so they were hospitalised, treated, recovered and went home. This was the end of January. Northern Italy "othered" the cases.
Patient zero second cases took ages to find as he was a German businessman who had returned to Germany
Patient One was a fit, healthy, superspreader.

I think had Patient One been patient zero (ie not Chinese) things would have clicked earlier, despite Italy being effectively the lab rat of Europe.

Then there's Milan, big international hub. Two massive airports.

Northern Italy shares a border with five other countries.

Milan fashion week went ahead, allbeit behind closed doors- but the fashion house employees and the press were there.

Ski season went ahead.

NB: The Chinese community behaved very responsibly, many didn't travel to China for Chinese New Year and instigated their own lockdowns in areas with high numbers of Chinese people.

The regional governor of Lombardia was begging the central govt to do something for weeks before they actually did.

We went to Evesham Mediaeval Market yesterday.
Social distancing there was not.
The organisers should have known better than to cram everyone into the church grounds.
We didn't stay long.

If we continue at exponential growth then the peak better be well before Christmas.
Even if we continue at linear growth of 10k more a week that would be 100k a week by the end of October.

I doubt it. Almost all of Germany went on holiday to Spain for the summer as usual and cases aren’t rising exponentially here.

I think it's the pubs.

People's behaviour when on holiday is a big cause here. I live in an area where there has been no community spread for several months. People have had 'normal' holiday behaviour and then not social distanced when they have got back which has led to a big up tick. The lack of social distancing didn't cause a problem before because there was nothing to spread.

And also selfish humans who are out partying, closely crammed together in small spaces. You only need to see the pictures of city centres over the weekend to show this!

People are desperate to pick something to 'blame' for the rise in cases, preferably something they themselves don't care for, be it pubs, foreign holidays, or of course, 'raves'.

In reality, it was always going to be the case that infections would rise once lockdown was released. It's not down to one single factor, but to the general increase in social interaction over the past few months. Very similar patterns have been seen throughout Europe, for those who think it's just down to 'irresponsible' Brits. This was always going to happen.

No, I don’t think so particularly.

I think it’s the general opening up of society and relaxing of rules, leading to the vast majority of us being less “vigilant”.

It's not just foreign holidays, but the return to a number of activities (holidays, restaurants/soft play/salons/other indoor activities, home visits to friends/family, increased use of public transport, return to offices to many who were previously wfh, etc) all at once. We cannot isolate one activity -- we've basically returned to normal life!! I'm gobsmacked people thought this could continue without another wave.

@Walkaround

Yeah, because obviously people in Greater Manchester and Birmingham go on far more foreign holidays than people in other parts of the country .

There's a lot more people in big cities like Manchester and Birmingham (with more high density housing) than smaller and more rural places. More opportunities for a virus to spread.

Both cities are also transport hubs with people travelling from other parts of the country to get to and from the airport.

Airports and planes are major germ hubs. Just the sheer numbers of different people all mingling together. Planes are often dirty. easyJet was in the news about a month ago. They barely clean between flights.

So yes the summer holidays played a big role. Add in EOTHO, packed bars, restaurants, raves, house parties, and protests, and it's a recipe for disaster.

Too many people ignored social distancing rules.
Many refused to wear a mask, then there is the people who believe the world governments are playing a game to take away their civil rights.
It's never ending.

Weren't the plans "roadmap" originally to open everything up in a controlled way so that any increase could be traced to the activities/sector that caused the rise? That went out of the window very quickly and everything seemed to open up at the same time. Ending shielding and opening pubs at restaurants at the same time was crazy.

UK-based holidays must be a factor too. We went on a UK holiday in the last week of August, it was booked over a year previously, otherwise we probably wouldn’t have gone. The place was jam/-packed, with most people ignoring social distancing, as if they thought that it didn’t apply to them because they were on holiday. Luckily we know the area well, so knew of and were able to go to some less crowded places but I felt on edge the whole time - and we’re pretty sure that we’ve had it already, so aren’t particularly over paranoid/cautious.

It’s everything. Not one thing. You might go on holiday to a place with a lower infection rate. But you still have to go on a bus or train with a bunch of other people to get there and back.
It’s every time time people mix. Wherever they are and whatever they are doing. Trying to blame one thing is ridiculous.

@yawnsvillex

No. It's pubs and restaurants.

Seeing as been open since July 4th you are talking rubbish.

But Mumsnet hates pubs and restaurants for some reason.

Cases started increasing at the end of July. That's why the 1st of August opening was delayed. Yes it's hospitality especially bars and indoor dining. All the evidence suggests this.

Why are people insisting it’s holidays or pubs and restaurants when the data clearly show it’s people mixing too much in private settings? If you look at the figures there are areas which never ever got on top of it, even during lockdown when no hospitality was open.

@SheepandCow - I think you’ll find there are many more big Cities in the UK than Leicester, Manchester and Birmingham, and Heathrow and Gatwick are the biggest airports, and there are not high levels of the virus circulating around those supposedly filthy airports. You clearly know nothing about aviation, so I suggest you stop fixating on it without doing a bit more research.

The surge in cases is caused by all sorts of human behaviours, but at least with foreign holidays via aeroplane, tracking and tracing is easier than most of the other ways people are spreading it (eg thinking they won’t catch it off friends and family, eating out but not wanting to hand over contact details, public transport, going on holiday anywhere in the UK or overseas and thinking this means you can ignore the rules and guidelines for a week, working in a factory, doing low paid work and carrying on when you get symptoms because you feel you can’t afford not to, etc, etc).

I think the vast majority of it is just general fatigue. Less social distancing, less handwashing, a general desire to 'get back to normal.'

Lots of people have gone back to their old ways, but the virus is still there, and now taking advantage while we let our guard down it would seem.

The weekly surveillance report suggests it's workplaces, pubs and restaurants. So it literally was, "Here's a tenner to get COVID".

Transmission was higher in the uk than those countries without quarantine so if its holidays that's caused it its more likely to be from UK holidays than foreign holidays