Is this surge in cases down to foreign holidays?

[notevenat20]

The numbers are now going up alarmingly and if the exponential growth continues we will be up to our worst peak by Christmas,

So what caused it?

A lot of the increase in infections happened in very late August (since numbers went up by specimen date around 1st September, and you don't test positive for 5 or more days), so I'm not sure the increase in R is down to schools reopening.

But it could have caused by people returning from holiday?

What do people think?

Two weeks after it's ended our borough is seeing a massive spike

So nothing to do with the schools going back and a general 'oh well there's no point in school distancing anymore, because the kids go back next week' attitude which was present just before the schools went back that could be driving the same pattern then?

• it needs to work its way through us?

For what purpose?

Covid colds re infect all the time.

Flu mutates each year, we need a new vaccine each year which isn't always effective.

So to exactly what purpose is... Letting it run through us

[quote SheepandCow]@Grellbunt It's hard to get tone, etc when writing. I think I manage to sound less pompous and lecturing when I speak in person (I like to think so anyhow but perhaps my friends and family are just being nice!).[/quote]
I’m sure you are fab!

I thought “dirty” was enough of a giveaway ... but it is Brexit Britain and there are a few xenophobes about I guess!

It's more than likely due to the absence of the two things we know work. Handwashing and social distancing.

I continuously see people touching their damp respiratory-excretion laden masks and then touching other things, and the liberal application of Handgel to dirty hands.

Masks and hand gel are not substitutes for handwashing and social distancing but because they're more convenient they've become a widespread and ineffective replacement.

True veterni, also its a placebo... Washing hands doesn't kill an airborne respitory virus.

I’m not sure why they have taken off so much in the last couple of weeks, particularly in the North West where numbers are getting really high again. Pubs/younger people/eat out to help out, people getting complacent etc. Who knows. I doubt it is just returning holidaymakers

I think discussion of holidays and then of EOTHO is largely irrelevant to what seem to be more major drivers of infection spread, namely poor housing, Covid insecure workplaces, multi generational housing, ineffective government messaging not reaching minorities.

@BoobsOnTheMoon

Almost certainly.

That's what started the multiple outbreaks in February and made it widespread in the community then - lots and lots of infections being brought back from Italy.

Because people couldn't go one summer without a foreign holiday

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

Some will be from travel but I think the majority have spread through lack of SD and people ignoring the guidelines of six people and stretching the two households meetings to entire families who don’t live together.

Everyone acting like it was back to normal in August and then all bac at school start of September with no social distancing has caused this.

There should have been a ten day self isolation for every child prior to school starting.

I would imagine ‘Eat out to help out‘ has played a large part.

It's mostly down to socialising, this can mean in pubs but mostly it's in homes, gardens etc. The reason behind 6 is because they know its family gatherings which have been the principal spreading events hence the distribution of the hotspots (they are being careful with wording to avoid being accused of racism because race is not relevant, it's the type of socialising, simply its more popular in certain communities)

I think it's a combination of overseas travel, the pubs opening back up (only have to see sm pictures of crowds outside and inside pubs) and people hosting other households indoors. The 14 day Quarantine is not being adhered to by many, why would it when it is not being enforced. People are relaxing and becoming too comfortable at a time we should be being careful, I think that some believe that washing their hands and throwing round the words 'socially distanced' somehow protects them when social distancing should be about limiting non essential contact with others completely.

Tougher restrictions won't be far away, care homes are already reporting significant rises in cases since August. The selfish behaviour and stupidity along with non compliance will bring a second lock down before Christmas.

Some of it is large families who insist on gathering together regardless of the risk.

I think EOTHO has had some affect, along with people getting back to normal re visiting people etc.

I went to a couple of small restaurants and everything seemed fine with covid procedures.

One night I drove past a large banqueting restaurant on a Monday night and there were well over a hundred people squashed together in a queue, the side road was blocked with taxis full of people getting out to go into the restaurant.

The week after it was in the paper that they hadn't been following covid guidelines, staff had had covid and carried on working there. Large weddings had been held, they still didn't get shut down, but had extra checks by the council.

We are going into local lockdown next week.

I think some restaurants just tried to make as much money as possible during EOTHO and didn't even vaguely follow the rules.

@Splendidseptember

True veterni, also its a placebo... Washing hands doesn't kill an airborne respitory virus.

Umm yes washing hands does kill the virus, and reduces the biggest transmission risk - hand-mouth contact. The very thing that masks increase.

Masks aren't magical. They reduce droplet transmission but unless you practice aseptic technique (almost no one) they dramatically increase mouth-hand transmission and environmental contamination.

Plus because everyone is now wearing their magical mask, social distancing has mostly gone out of the window

I'm not convinced by the theory that Londoners have more immunity as they were hit hard.

Birmingham was hit hard too previously. Our NHS trust reported more deaths than anywhere at one point and our cases soared.
If the theory were true then Birmingham would be performing like London now.

I do agree with the other concepts that Londoners have less interaction with families in homes and that they haven't been herded into the office on public transport like lots here in Birmingham.
I have no idea how much testing is going on in London either.

On London I think it genuinely is pretty low on a national basis even if you look at the rates of the highest borough (and remember the whole London rate will always be lower than the highest) it was still way lower than the north west areas of concern (slightly over 20 cases per 100,000 In Kensington compared to over 100 Per 100,000 in Bolton) interesting to ask why but I do think for now it’s low.

I don’t buy they all have it and no one knows I think if London suddenly had a very high number of hospital admissions or deaths we would know and it’s the north west where hospital admissions are going up

I am guessing myself London numbers will rise but for now it’s just inaccurate to suggest “London has high covid and we just don’t know” a city this size we would know!

The spread is through households and inappropriate SD indoors. Hence why rule of 6.

Also through ppl no self isolating
Only 1/4 ppl doing it.

Finally ppl not following quarantine times.

This thread is full of people saying "I think...."

It doesn't matter what you think. It has no bearing on the facts and the reality, which no one actually knows, other than the fact that it's a highly contagious virus which will run its course and the fade away.

Tougher restrictions won't be far away, care homes are already reporting significant rises in cases since August. The selfish behaviour and stupidity along with non compliance will bring a second lock down before Christmas.

Ah that word again..."selfish". The blame game.

The population as a whole has been remarkably compliant. They were told on 4th June that they could travel to other areas after being confined for over two months, so they did. They were told to eat out to help out, so they did. They were told to support the British tourism industry, so they did.

However this still makes them selfish and stupid, according to trial by social media and MN.

The virus is not spreading again people people are "selfish". It's spreading because it's a contagious virus.

With regards to London and the south having fairly low rates, the fact they've had hotter summers/more sunlight etc could be a factor.

Manchester isn't known for its sunshine.

Where I live its returning travellers and family spread, eat out to help out can't really be blamed. I ate out with just my partner or kids. No one forced people to meet as many people as 'allowed'. We have also seen many workplace clusters.

@HesterShaw1

Tougher restrictions won't be far away, care homes are already reporting significant rises in cases since August. The selfish behaviour and stupidity along with non compliance will bring a second lock down before Christmas.

Ah that word again..."selfish". The blame game.

The population as a whole has been remarkably compliant. They were told on 4th June that they could travel to other areas after being confined for over two months, so they did. They were told to eat out to help out, so they did. They were told to support the British tourism industry, so they did.

However this still makes them selfish and stupid, according to trial by social media and MN.

The virus is not spreading again people people are "selfish". It's spreading because it's a contagious virus.

What about the Conga street parties in May?

Too many haven't took this seriously.

"Some clusters we know about: pub crawls in Aberdeen, teenage house parties in Scotland, teenagers travelling en masse to Zante, various factories, lots of household gatherings in Northern England, a handful of pubs."

The news may have told you pub crawls were the sole reason for the Aberdeen outbreak but it is not accurate.

Also we had a strict lockdown for what ended up around 320 cases in total.
Seems areas of the country get treated differently.