Is this surge in cases down to foreign holidays?

[notevenat20]

The numbers are now going up alarmingly and if the exponential growth continues we will be up to our worst peak by Christmas,

So what caused it?

A lot of the increase in infections happened in very late August (since numbers went up by specimen date around 1st September, and you don't test positive for 5 or more days), so I'm not sure the increase in R is down to schools reopening.

But it could have caused by people returning from holiday?

What do people think?

Where I am people of all ages are ignoring the rules - many never followed them. My next door neighbours (in their 30s) hosted extended family gatherings, kids birthday parties, playdates, big groups of friends over all through lockdown. 2 doors down (50s) pretty much the same. No social distancing, etc.

I guess it's easy to blame foreign travel but how many of you have been to an airport or on a flight recently? Airports are deserted, flights at least half empty. The air filtering system on planes has been proven to filter particles the size of Covid. Most holidays abroad have been cancelled this year.

I think we need to look closer to home.

Every seems to have forgotten that the schools went back, for the adult staff, two weeks ago.

I went on holiday a couple of days seaside, no Sd, very few wearing face masks in arcades despite signs every where.

*What about the Conga street parties in May?

Too many haven't took this seriously.*

FFS @annabel85, you're kidding aren't you? For weeks, people were triumphantly predicting a "second wave" in London because of the conga-ing. It didn't happen.

I was in France for all of August. Our family is there and the kids wouldn’t have seen their grandparents for a whole year if we hadn’t gone. It’s not always a jolly. This was a must while we could. The French numbers started climbing while we were there but it was unusual to go out and find people without masks on the streets, in shops. Felt very safe. Came home and nobody was wearing a mask on the street and many getting into the supermarket today without a mask. Did full quarantine. Today was our first day of real life again. Somewhat shocked that so few people are trying to avoid a new surge in numbers. Masks, people, masks! It may not be the perfect solution but it helps.

The thing is, a second wave was expected. It's an inevitability of lockdown easing, so is a result of everything mentioned in previous posts.

Even if people followed guidance to the letter we would have an increase in cases due to workers returning, public transport usage, leisure facilities opening, restaurant scheme and schools.

Universities will probably cause a spike now.

From now on I think Government will turn local restrictions on and off as necessary, to try to manage demand on the NHS.

@HesterShaw1

*What about the Conga street parties in May?

Too many haven't took this seriously.*

FFS @annabel85, you're kidding aren't you? For weeks, people were triumphantly predicting a "second wave" in London because of the conga-ing. It didn't happen.

It's an example of people not taking it seriously even when we were locked down. Even just the spectacle of people dancing and partying in the streets while thousands were dying. Social distancing out the window. They didn't know it wouldn't cause a spike at the time.

People hanging out in large groups, drinking
People having masks on trains but not wearing them
People not sd at work
No supervision of sd on trains

@HesterShaw1

Tougher restrictions won't be far away, care homes are already reporting significant rises in cases since August. The selfish behaviour and stupidity along with non compliance will bring a second lock down before Christmas.

Ah that word again..."selfish". The blame game.

The population as a whole has been remarkably compliant. They were told on 4th June that they could travel to other areas after being confined for over two months, so they did. They were told to eat out to help out, so they did. They were told to support the British tourism industry, so they did.

However this still makes them selfish and stupid, according to trial by social media and MN.

The virus is not spreading again people people are "selfish". It's spreading because it's a contagious virus.

Selfish to not quarantine - yes Selfish to travel to places with relatively lower numbers than our own and spread - yes

Just because we can doesn't mean we have to or should. I agree that the blame game is a slippery slope but common sense is sadly absent amonst many, of course the government shouldn't have opened back up travel and hospitality but they chose to for the economy. Cheltenham was a super spreading event and a completely idiotic decision for it to go ahead but people need to need to take personal responsibility too.

Transmission has surged because we have allowed more opportunities for transmission to occur

I understand from the track/trace info obtained from people testing positive in West Midlands area showed that the virus was mainly transmitted by friends/family meeting in each other's houses and not social distancing. That's why the local lockdown is saying people cannot mix households . I think it's similar with other local lockdowns.

@SheepandCow virus increases in Birmingham are not due to the airport .

It's all social clubs around here. A lot of the Sunderland cases are linked to a charity football match organised by a social club.

I think the only thing spread can be blamed on is that people, on the whole, are selfish idiots.
DH and I are currently quarantining after a holiday which was booked last year and was allowed at the time of outbound flight so cancelling would have cost us big time but rules changed while we were away. Our view is that we knew it was a possibility so, fair enough, we will isolate as instructed.

Meanwhile we know of someone recently returned from working abroad who should be isolating but is out socialising and a young mum who hosted an afternoon for mums and babies from antenatal despite having just returned from a holiday requiring quarantine. Our friend who brought us some shopping today was really shocked at the number of people in the supermarket without masks, some no doubt justifiably so, others just selfish wanksplats.
The country we holidayed in was adhering to distancing, sanitising and masks far better than people are here

The professor of global health who wrote this article last month said they feared summer holidays abroad could cause a rise in numbers

www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opinion/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html

Manchester's Nightingale Hospital was still open when the shops reopened. It's last inpatient left at the end of June...

Does anyone want to work out why it was Manchester that went back into local lockdowns first?

Was it perhaps because it never went away in Manchester to begin with

Manchester didn't go into lockdown first, the local lockdowns happened in other cities and towns at the same time. Parts of three whole counties locked down locally in the north. The north isn't just Manchester, which is only a small proportion by population in the north and it wasn't particularly high in rates of infection compared to other places there.

It was places like Bradford (a larger city by population), Blackburn and Oldham that were consistently higher in the list for infection rates. Interestingly Leeds, a huge city and transport hub, wasn't included.

It seems to have been the places around the Pennines that were worst affected

...as others have said, it's a mixture of things that have caused a surge in cases, a general easing of lockdown

Something I did notice on other sites/ travel boards was that a lot people visiting countries where proof of a 72 hour negative test was required, is that many seemed to be using the NHS for the test. Probably because a private test can be quite expensive

This was possible at first, though probably not ethical, but now the Gov't seem to have put a stop to it by taking down the "other" reason, apart from symptoms, on the form and warning that the NHS test shouldn't be used for travel.

I don't think air travel has caused the surge but maybe a reason for the surge in demand for tests and shortage of tests now?

Despite people on here bleating on about 'dirty air' on aeroplanes, this just isn't true due to HEPA filtration. You are far more at risk on a bus or train, but that wouldn't fit the narrative of selfish people jetting off on holiday, would it?

@Heffalooomia

Transmission has surged because we have allowed more opportunities for transmission to occur

Exactly. Even if people didn’t think the rules don’t apply to them and followed them to the letter there would still be a rise in cases simply because people are out and about.

Holidays are not especially to blame except where people fully relaxed. Most places were similar to U.K.

It is the ignoring of basic social distancing by many people over the summer.

Although understandable, and it is important to remember that cases were (and are) still very low compared to pre lockdown, we need to put the cat back into the bag very quickly.

This means proper enforcement of the rules, with penalties levied where necessary. Although many don’t like it, it will allow schools to stay open throughout the winter and, if we are lucky, pubs and restaurants.

I don’t blame large families for having the odd guest at home (and that will never be enforced anyway) but large gatherings just have to stop. People shouting in their gardens until after midnight (as they have been) is hardly conducive to people getting back to work anyway.

And masks, wear them unless you really can’t; don’t look for excuses not to.

If you accept that the better off monetarily should support the worse off monetarily through paying taxes, the same principle applies to those rich in youth and health obeying the Covid rules to protect the older and more vulnerable.

Cases were always going to rise when restrictions were eased. To me the issue was that the government- and I include Scottish government in this - seemed to go very quickly from not being able to do very much at all for a long period, to suddenly being able to do everything, meaning it's really hard to isolate factors for the growth. Add to that schools going back - and it really should have been a priority for numbers to be kept low for that - and people's difficulties in getting a test done in a reasonable time scale, and it's easy to see why cases have gone up.

To me the issue was that the government- and I include Scottish government in this - seemed to go very quickly from not being able to do very much at all for a long period, to suddenly being able to do everything, meaning it's really hard to isolate factors for the growth.

That isn't true. The re-opening was phased - first shops, then pubs and restaurants, then other leisure venues - most of them with restrictions. It's simply not the case that everything was allowed to reopen at once.

I think the vast majority of it is just general fatigue. Less social distancing, less handwashing, a general desire to 'get back to normal.'

Totally this. I find I have to really remind myself and the kids to wash hands. I am not nearly as hyper-vigilant as I was. I think I just got too used to being at home all the time and therefore not really needing to be as 'on the ball' with the hand gel and the handwashing as I was initially. I'm not proud, just honest.
Also, in our area, people have been mixing more than they ever did in pre-covid times. My neighbours have had a revolving door of people coming to visit and stay throughout August and September.
I'm not doing this at all. I haven't had anyone over. I'm not begrudging people time with their loved ones though either. People are going to do what they're going to do.

I think it is down to people been fed out and some are outright defiant.
We've had countless texts from the school reminding parent's to drop and go.
There must have been 70 huddled together waving at their DC through the railings.
Very few wearing masks.
Mine is in junior infants with SEN we were initially allowed walk the juniors in many parents wouldn't wear a mask they had to stop allowing any in.

@IcedPurple in Scotland gyms were opened early, even as cases had started rising. To me it makes no sense- if you're going for a phased approach then surely you pause if there is an increase.