Is this surge in cases down to foreign holidays?

[notevenat20]

The numbers are now going up alarmingly and if the exponential growth continues we will be up to our worst peak by Christmas,

So what caused it?

A lot of the increase in infections happened in very late August (since numbers went up by specimen date around 1st September, and you don't test positive for 5 or more days), so I'm not sure the increase in R is down to schools reopening.

But it could have caused by people returning from holiday?

What do people think?

It won't be down to any one thing. It was always planned for summer relief followed by more restrictions. The policies in place are also forcing more people to get tested and whilst it can look like a fast increase it's not necessarily worse than before where general testing wasn't available. We will never know that as the two situations aren't really comparable.

It was and is inevitable. But made worse by the logistics of keeping the economy going and the impact of true brexit looming.

But we know the spread happens mainly indoors with close contact for more than 15 minutes? So I don’t think people congregating outside for a short time so causing this.

However it’s annoyingly that our school won’t let parents wait in the huge playground so they now have to stand on the narrow pavement instead....

I think it’s the eat out scheme too, the queues were ridiculous with zero social distancing. Why we needed to feed an already obese nation for cheap, I don’t know, especially if it’s a risk factor in catching Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54144130
Wetherspoon: 66 staff test positive across 50 pubs

Anyone fancy a pint of Corona at Wetherspoons?

Unlikely. There was a small number of people who actually went abroad this summer. How many of them have since tested positive or had symptoms?

The government statistics via Track and Trace apparently show that the spread has occurred mainly from mixing in large numbers, with reduced SD (if any) in people's homes. Hence the nature of restrictions in local areas and the new rule of 6 restrictions in place.

Eat out to help out =eat out to help spread the virus

@HeyBlaby

Despite people on here bleating on about 'dirty air' on aeroplanes, this just isn't true due to HEPA filtration. You are far more at risk on a bus or train, but that wouldn't fit the narrative of selfish people jetting off on holiday, would it?

I haven't seen anyone talking about dirty air (or 'bleating' about it). The blame lies with those in charge. The government. It's their job to put in place (and enforce) protective and preventative measures.

It's the actual planes that are dirty. There was a report a month ago about this. How they weren't being cleaned properly or regularly enough.

It's also very simply an issue when lots of people gather together in airports, and the buses, coaches, and trains that get them there.

Of course international travel isn't the sole reason for the rise in cases. But it doesn't help. If a pp is to be believed that very few people went abroad on holiday this year, it also wouldn't be a big deal if we closed the borders (except for essential travel).

No. It's pubs and restaurants.

Not according to the Scottish gov.

I don't think so. I don't actually know anyone who went abroad this year!
The groups that it is emerging in are the age group that socialise in pubs a lot. Do you stay 1m apart from the people in your party in the pub? Unlikely. It's close contact for 1 hour that is high risk, which is what happens in pubs. Restaurants, less so.
It's not just young people. I'm so angry when I see social contacts on social media sharing pictures of their social event (usually involving gin) all squashing up together for their picture.
It's also large extended families who habitually mix a lot and may have tried to restrict this initially but relaxed too far when lockdown ended.

Most countries have stricter restrictions on landing than we do. Not only that but Italy have temperature checks at train stations, in restaurants and at the beach - yes the beach

I love how people want to blame other countries for the rise here when it has been stated as 'facts' by the Government that it is too many people mixing within households

No mention of holiday folk being the reason. To start with, no doubt it was bought in by holiday-makers/business trips etc. But I dont believe for one second that will be the cause of this new spike

More tests being carried out = more positive tests being found. Simple

@Nixen, no, they weren't wearing masks I imagine because they have only just been made mandatory here again. I wasn't there so couldn't say for sure.

It’s a combination of things.
Holidays abroad.
People not social distancing.
Kids going back to school.
Going back to unis.
It’s normal for colds/flus to start appearing at these times.
Lots of people don’t seem to believe Covid exists.

It’s bound to rise a good bit as we go into winter.

Honey roar - why holidays abroad, rather than just holidays anywhere. Many places abroad have lower cases than England. Many places abroad can be accessed without leaving your own private vehicle to get there.

@loobyloo1234
Who's blaming other countries? That would be particularly bizarre considering that
a) Most are handling things much better than us with proper precautions
And
b) It's likely us who were the summer holiday spreaders. Greece, for example, had fairly low rates of infection until we turned up.

But most places abroad are accessed by planes, where you’re in contact with lots of others. Out of all the people I’ve known that have been abroad this year, I don’t know any who drove.

@SheepandCow

Have you seen the title of the thread?

Planes are safer than tubes and buses I think. High quality air filtering and they are half empty.

@RedToothBrush

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54144130 Wetherspoon: 66 staff test positive across 50 pubs

Anyone fancy a pint of Corona at Wetherspoons?

66 cases out of 41000 staff and 50 pubs out of 861! Perspective! its hardly rampant throughout the industry is it, the numbers are probably fairly similar in other businesses like retail outlets or other public facing businesses

Planes aren’t half empty and their air filter systems are rubbish (I’m ex cabin crew).

Planes are generally not half empty - airlines have just stopped most of their flights and routes so as to enable flights that do go not to be totally uneconomical (why would you fly one passenger, or even no passengers somewhere in a large aeroplane?). Airports, on the other hand, are extremely quiet, because the bottom has fallen out of the aviation market. Long haul flights tend to be mostly full of cargo, not human beings - even strapped to the seats.

I really don't understand why travel industry bosses didn't have more foresight. If only they hadn't lobbied so hard at the start to keep everything open. By now everything would be back to normal.

@Honeyroar I heard Singapore Airlines has good air filtering?

@SheepandCow - what absolute bollocks. Of course nothing would be back to normal yet. The major airlines and airports rely hugely on the US market and there is no way that is or was ever going to be anywhere near back to normal now. The entire world has to be “back to normal“ for anything to go back to normal...

More likely uk holidays. Those cramming themselves into Devon and Cornwall and patting themselves on the back. Also campsites shared shower blocks etc

@Walkaround
You assumed I was referring solely to the UK when I referred to travel industry bosses.

It's an international industry, one that lobbied worldwide against temporary travel restriction. Of course it has to be the whole world. And that's what I meant. Every country in the world should've temporarily closed their borders at the start of the year. All would by now be back to normal

@SheepandCow - but what in earth makes you think countries shutting their borders would have meant everything would be back to normal, now?! Patently it would not, as borders closed or not, countries like Brazil and India are incapable of preventing internal spread; and borders cannot be closed to all travel - this country is self-sufficient in pretty much nothing. The virus was already in far too many countries before anyone was in a position to stop it getting into a large number of countries altogether. So travel bosses or not, it was going to spread and there would still be pariah countries unable to open up. And the UK itself has proven itself temperamentally incapable of ridding itself entirely of the virus, regardless of whether or not borders were open or closed.