Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I really think that the number of tests processed is just too low for the number of cases you currently have in the community. I live in Victoria Australia where we processed 14000 tests yesterday for a population of about 6.5 million. This puts us only a bit lower per capita rate of testing than you but we are in week 9 of lockdown and only got 28 positives out of those tests. Here you have to have symptoms to get a test but it doesn't matter what those symptoms are. A runny nose is enough. This has been the case for many months now. And before we sent our schools back every teacher could get a test with no symptoms. It didn't stop another outbreak because our quarantine was a shambles but it was a sensible start.

Impossible to trust the test figures any longer - all you can know is there at least as many positive tests as the government declares. The system has never been able to pick up all those with the virus (used to be maybe one case in 2 after the peak, maybe 1 in 10 at the peak) but at least there was some hope on trends.

Now it's back to the zoe ap and ONS data - and they are not likely to be able to increase surveillance testing now.

On the plus side there are going to be a lot of people getting their infection out of the way before winter.

What is also concerning is that the number of cases are sharply rising but the testing capacity can't meet demand, therefore the number of cases may be even higher than the previous peak.

What is also concerning is that the number of cases are sharply rising but the testing capacity can't meet demand, therefore the number of cases may be even higher than the previous peak.

There is a weekly ONS survey that should answer this sort of question.

and of course, take measures - like rule of 6 - to reduce transmission

@notevenat20

What is also concerning is that the number of cases are sharply rising but the testing capacity can't meet demand, therefore the number of cases may be even higher than the previous peak.

There is a weekly ONS survey that should answer this sort of question.

.... with reliable answers from 10 days ago

@ReadtheData

Things aren’t good, but I think that’s unduly pessimistic. If we were anywhere near to, let alone above, March’s peak, we’d be seeing a much bigger surge in hospitalisations than we are currently.

Councils in England with Highest Cases per 100K of Population

I produced this table for a friend this morning and thought I would share here in case anyone else would find it useful.

It shows the councils in England with the highest cases per 100k of population up to Sept 11th (the most recent reliable date for council level data). I couldnt screesnhot all 315 councils but if you want to check any council that is not on this list, the same data is published here: www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

The thing is that as soon as you get a significant problem with not being able to test in a certain area that automatically should be triggering local lockdowns if the known rate is already above a certain level.

The fact that no thought what so ever has been given to this, is a massive oversight.

@Derbygerbil

In March, nobody was taking precautions, such as wearing masks and social distancing. Therefore the virus was spreading without us knowing, and the vulnerable and sick died.

Now there are more precautions, but the virus has spread even more making transmission much more likely.

Now, the vulnerable and elderly are shielding or were already caught up in the first wave of the virus, so hospital admissions will be lower. I don't think that transfers in any way to lower cases at the moment.

Now, the vulnerable and elderly are shielding or were already caught up in the first wave of the virus, so hospital admissions will be lower. I don't think that transfers in any way to lower cases at the moment.

This is true. But I don't see how everyone over 65 can isolate themselves from the rest of the population forever. They would have to not leave their houses at all effectively.

with reliable answers from 10 days ago

Yes. The truth comes to those who wait :)

In addition, tests were only available to those admitted to hospital. Therefore the number of cases were again much lower than the actual real figure, as there were many thousands of untested cases 'managing' at home.

The number of cases will increase massively this winter but that's partly because we will know about them this time.

Hopefully - if the government sorts it's testing plan out! We need accurate data to keep on top of this.

Now there are more precautions, but the virus has spread even more making transmission much more likely

No, there's a tiny fraction of the virus spread in the community than there was in March.

@notevenat20 I know, my mum is one of the shielding, it's awful. It's not in any way a long-term solution.

[quote ReadtheData]@Derbygerbil

In March, nobody was taking precautions, such as wearing masks and social distancing. Therefore the virus was spreading without us knowing, and the vulnerable and sick died.

Now there are more precautions, but the virus has spread even more making transmission much more likely.

Now, the vulnerable and elderly are shielding or were already caught up in the first wave of the virus, so hospital admissions will be lower. I don't think that transfers in any way to lower cases at the moment.[/quote]
No not all the elderly or vulnerable are allowed to shield anymore. I’m a CEV Teacher in a Reception class admist this shit show. I hate the assumption that we can continue to shield. I have my own kids to feed so can not protect myself.

Indie sage quoted the positivity rate as 3% last week. They explained how difficult it was to find as it involves getting individual rates from each local authority. Bristol, which is fairing better than most places at the moment, has a positivity rate of 1% as of Tuesday's last update. Bristol city council do a decent biweekly summary for the city:

www.bristol.gov.uk/crime-emergencies/covid-19-data-including-cases-in-bristol-and-r-number-for-the-south-west

290 new positive cases in Scotland

Looking at today’s Scottish figures, the issue still seems to be in Glasgow and Lanarkshire- 164 cases.

There were only 126 across the rest of the country (4.5 million people). This includes 47 in Lothian (this is still not a huge number for an area of 1 million people and an outbreak seems to have originated in a student accommodation complex).

If the Glasgow area outbreak can be got under control, I think we’ll actually be in quite a positive situation as cases are still low everywhere else.

The good news is that the rise in cases does not seem to be leading to large numbers of hospitalisations- there are only 5 COVID patients in ICU across the whole country.

I like the new table @littleowl1, thank you, I particularly like it showing rising/ falling. A couple of suggestions please, that you can of course ignore if they aren't helpful. A column with a rank per 100k would be useful, a couple of areas startled me and then I realised it's because of population being so different. If we could also re-sort by column, and either filter by region of the country or name-search then that would allow a small enough list to be able to see the header row. Finally, top / bottom decile per 100k could be colour-coded on their name and in a filter, to be able to quickly see if they are rising or falling. Thanks again, it's a good resource.

@Ecosse

Looking at today’s Scottish figures, the issue still seems to be in Glasgow and Lanarkshire- 164 cases.

There were only 126 across the rest of the country (4.5 million people). This includes 47 in Lothian (this is still not a huge number for an area of 1 million people and an outbreak seems to have originated in a student accommodation complex).

If the Glasgow area outbreak can be got under control, I think we’ll actually be in quite a positive situation as cases are still low everywhere else.

The good news is that the rise in cases does not seem to be leading to large numbers of hospitalisations- there are only 5 COVID patients in ICU across the whole country.

Undoubtedly there is a particular issue in Glasgow and Lanarkshire - hence the extra restrictions in place there at the moment.

However all the mainland health boards in Scotland are seeing an undeniable uptick in cases. Attached (hopefully) to this post are graphs showing cases over the last two calendar months for the mainland health board areas.

Poster has just started a thread saying Dido Harding is appearing before parliament (a committee) at 230to be questioned! Tune in on Sky or BBC.....

Ecosse are you sure your numbers are right?

Greater Glasgow & Clyde on its own has a pop > 1million.

Lothian has a population < 1 million.

Quite surprised to see Northumberland (26/100,000) included in the new North Eastern restrictions. It raises the possibility of the same happening in the North West including areas such as Cheshire East (24/100,000) and South Lakeland (11/100,000).

Has anyone seen anything that sets out the logic of the north-eastern decision.

Now, the vulnerable and elderly are shielding

I'm shielding, but my kid should be going to school, shoulder to shoulder, no mask with another 150 in one yeargroup bubble.
How is that supposed to work?

The problem is that most people (in general) equate vulnerable to old. And that is not the case!