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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:03

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 09:47

@Baaaahhhhh

Going back a couple of pages, with regards to de-centralising, which I am also in favour of. BUT, the minute the announcement was made to dismantle PHE as not fit for purpose, huge discontent within Civil Service, and cries of "not fair".
...... afaik, the idea is to copy German's RKI - which is the central body in Germany that collates everything from the regional and district public health authorities and labs

So I'll wait to see if there is also genuine devolution of powers and resources to local government

Main problems with the govt plans:

  • Major reorganisation of public health during a pandemic ?
    I'd have it as a priority after the pandemic, but we don't want the disruption during on

  • Dido Harding as chief ?
    The RKI has professional public health experts at all levels including the top job, not someone who has never worked in public health, just failed upwards everywhere

OP posts:
Frazzled2207 · 17/09/2020 09:49

@notevenat20
100,000 a day are reserved for the social care system Matt Hancock confirmed that the other day. So those “slots” are not made available to other folk.

notevenat20 · 17/09/2020 09:58

100,000 a day are reserved for the social care system Matt Hancock confirmed that the other day. So those “slots” are not made available to other folk.

I guess that's a good thing. But that would imply that the full 100,000 tests for social care are actually being used every day. It seems a lot but maybe that is true?

alreadytaken · 17/09/2020 10:01

@Baaaahhhhh PHE used to be a decentralised system. Then the government centralised it, cut its budget and have now replaced it with a chum (Dido Harding) who was responsible for the disaster that was talk talk and is now responsible for test and trace.

Of course the civil service doesnt think it's fair - but more importantly it's incompetent. Just part of a government that has always put dogma before efficiency, something for which we are now all paying - paying excessive amounts for a rubbish "service". Expect the same when they finish running down the NHS and sell the last remnants off.

Frazzled2207 · 17/09/2020 10:02

@notevenat20

They are delivered directly to settings I believe. I don’t think the government as any way of “making” them get used

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2020 10:04

@notevenat20

No, you can’t. But as people can’t get tests it would give a secondary method of showing how many people are trying to get tests and where in the country they live.

There are over 200,000 tests being carried out every day we are told. So although it seems lots of people can't get tests, there must also be lots of people who can get tests.

The problem is as follows:

I think the NW had 30% of the positive tests yesterday. But it has 15% of the testing capacity.

So once all the home postal kits for the day have gone out, that leaves people in certain areas scrambling around trying to find tests at a testing centre.

Which is fine if you have a car and money for petrol. Not so fine if you don't.

It also helps if you have sufficient testing stations for the area.

Warrington is a prime example of the problem.

Its only testing station was shared with Halton. So every couple of weeks there was no testing station in the town at all. So the ONLY way to get a test was via post if you couldn't drive.

When the mobile testing centre was in town it was located in the poorest part of town - Orford. Thats all well and good, but if you don't live in Orford and you don't drive, how do you get to it? Orford isnt the centre of town and whilst you could get a bus there you'd have to change buses.

And because the testing centre wasnt permanent theres been little awareness about it too.

Its hardly ideal for encouraging people to get tested.

As it was it appears that one of the bigger clusters has been picked up by routine hospital testing for procedures (pillar 1) rather than the community testing (pillar 2).

The whole thing points to a critical lack of basic testing in the quite period so no one took the risk seriously and a false sense of security swept through the town aided and abetted by government messaging and the local council keen to promote their shiny new multi million pound investment in the new market.

So the virus has spread unnoticed for a couple of weeks and just at the critical point where there is a problem becoming apparent locally, the national shortage hits meaning not only is there a shortage of local testing facilities but the number of postal tests available is constricted.

Its places where there is a lack of aqueduate local testing available that therefore get stung by a national shortage of home kits because these places are most reliant on being homekits when there is a sudden rise in cases. That means demand very quickly outstrips supply.

Not only this but you then get mobile people in Warrington (often worried well) able to travel to other hotspots where there are facilities but this also takes away local capacity to those who dont drive.

You therefore worsen the have and have not issue and the people least economically able to isolate are the poorest. Which adds to the problem of transmission.

I think we will look back on this and the lack of testing facilities as part of the problem.

Warrington is now saying its going to get a permanent site, but this may not be operational until next Friday. Thats another world week where there is going to be a persistent problem and with rising cases having quadrupled in a week thats more than a little bit of an issue.

notevenat20 · 17/09/2020 10:04

They are delivered directly to settings I believe. I don’t think the government as any way of “making” them get used

Got you. The number of over 200,000 that I quoted is the number of tests actually processed each day, not a theoretical number like "capacity" or such nonsense.

BighouseLittlemouse · 17/09/2020 10:07

@Frazzled2207 - I know. One of my ( great) relatives was instrumental in it when it first started as the Manchester guardianSmile.

I’m from ‘the north’ so understand the feeling of bias in the media. I do however think there has been coverage on the north west recently certainly on the BBC. I think if anything corona itself slipped down the news items a little. There are lots of areas where it is now rising that don’t seem to be getting coverage ( and even within London some areas are rising fast - from a low base - but there is a weird narrative London is fine).

Frazzled2207 · 17/09/2020 10:12

@notevenat20
I thought the daily tests figure included those sent out not actually processed.
Some of them probably never get processed or at least get saved for a rainy day (I know people who’ve done this). That certainly was the case not sure if it’s changed.

littleowl1 · 17/09/2020 10:14

Hi @Hmmph yes I do have these charts. See attached. These are for councils in England only. It's rather sobering reading to be honest.

For anyone who hasn't already, you can sign up for daily emails notifying you of the number of cases in your council area, whether cases are rising or falling etc at www.covidmessenger.com

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 10:19

Yes, the definition of daily tests changed from “made available” to “processed” a few months ago.

From the dashboard:

Daily and cumulative numbers of tests

Tests processed by laboratories across the UK. Tests made available or sent out but not processed are not included”.

Augustbreeze · 17/09/2020 10:22

Aren't over half the number of "daily tests" actually antibody tests?

Although I have no clue as to why 100 000 antibody tests need to be carried out, is it mainly for research?

wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 10:25

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-data-methodology/covid-19-testing-data-methodology-note

Here are further explanations of the “tests processed” measure but, in summary, it appears to be a fairly reliable number that is not based on any “creative accounting” techniques. For instance, it does not include any tests sent to care homes, other satellite testing locations or people’s homes that have not been returned and processed.

wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 10:29

No, antibody tests processed are nowhere as high as 100,000. We have got a high capacity (120k) but we are hardly using any of it.

They key numbers to monitor are Pillar 1 and 2 tests (capacity and tests processed). The theoretical maximum capacity is 243k. The actual daily tests have been recently varying between 200 and 240k.

wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 10:34

Also, on “tests processed”, the nasal and throat swabs from one person get reported together as a single test (as they should be).

There is misconception on other threads that they may be counted separately. According to the fine print on the government website, it is not the case, i.e. there is no double count.

Basically, the “tests processed” measure should be a fairly objective number if it is calculated based on the current definitions.

Choux · 17/09/2020 10:35

East Lancashire walk in sites are moving from being open 7 days a week to only 5 (sat to Weds)

If this is happening all over the country it may make organise lab processing as tests arrive 5 times a week from a region rather than 7 but not good news if you live in Lancashire and develop symptoms on a weds night.

www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/18727270.walk-in-test-centres-across-east-lancashire-changing---need-know/

Reastie · 17/09/2020 10:44

‘ There are no stats on how many people are trying to get tests and give up. R4's More or Less mentioned this yesterday.’

I just can’t believe no one is collating this or the schools positive data. Aside from Germany which seem to be doing a good job on things from what choc says, are any other country as incompetent?! I’m feeling really quite scared now.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 11:05

@wintertravel1980

No, antibody tests processed are nowhere as high as 100,000. We have got a high capacity (120k) but we are hardly using any of it.

They key numbers to monitor are Pillar 1 and 2 tests (capacity and tests processed). The theoretical maximum capacity is 243k. The actual daily tests have been recently varying between 200 and 240k.

... That doesn't match up with the figure of 60,000 per day atm in that leaked document the Times published
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 11:14

As with many other resources the UK has
The main problem may not be the total amount of resources there are, but that they are not distributed as needed

However, relying on other countries like Italy or Germany to process some UK tests can only be the most temporary strategy
As soon as cases in those countries rise sufficiently, then they will need all their own test resources

e.g. I am expecting cases to rise here (Germany) during Autumn and then winter, with commensurate tightening of measures such as how many people can meet etc
(currently high numbers allowed in some states with fewer cases)
My hope is that measures keep this rise very gradual and to within numbers whether spare capacity of the health services remains very high

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 11:15

within numbers at which spare capacity of the health services remains very high

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 17/09/2020 11:19

Yes the fact there is no data on how many people (and where they are) cant get a test is really troubling me.

How can you priortise and move your service quickly to areas which have clear supply and demand problems?

Being able to spot problems as they occur very quickly should be something that was inbuilt into the smooth running of the system to allow it to be effective and efficient.

What bothering me is we are hearing that there is a massive problem of lack of tests available in places which have had a sudden quadrupling of cases which have now apparently seemed to have just mysteriously levelled off without any mitigation strategy in place. Is that even likely?

EducatingArti · 17/09/2020 11:25

I'd say it is very unlikely and much more likely to be a feature of the lack of available testing.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 11:41

Adam Kucharskii@AdamJKucharski* (LSHTM)

It's not surprising that testing is running into issues as SARS-CoV-2 transmission is increasing,
because a gradually expanding testing capacity is competing with an exponentially growing epidemic.

If transmission isn't slowed down, it's inevitable will lose track of cases.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 11:42

So we need to prioritise the allocation of limited resources

OP posts:
wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 11:45

That doesn't match up with the figure of 60,000 per day atm in that leaked document the Times published.

No, but based on the Scotland example (that was discussed several pages back) the leaked number of 60,000 is likely to represent new people tested. We know that at least in Scotland people who get tested more than once (e.g. care home workers and residents, medical professionals) do not get counted in subsequent tests. The methodology for England is less clear but knowing all the mess with other reported numbers (e.g. PHE deaths, etc) it is quite possible that they have followed the Scotland approach by only reporting new people tested.