Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I think the NW will be getting restrictions too, Liverpool’s mayor said earlier in the week it would come in on Friday. I think sadly, the London centric media just isn’t picking up on it

@Hedgehog26

A lot of north west is currently under extra restrictions, certainly most of Greater Manchester, Preston and Liverpool and Warrington are expecting them ASAP
However we can meet people outside and no talk of curfew or anything yet. It hasn’t worked though. So who knows what’s next.

The situation in bolton is desperate. Worst affected town outside Spain in Europe. Nobody can get tests. They’re not allowed to socialise with anyone at all and the cases are still skyrocketing despite the fact that loads who want tests can’t get them. They feel totally abandoned.

@Toomanyapplesinthefruitbowl

I think the NW will be getting restrictions too, Liverpool’s mayor said earlier in the week it would come in on Friday. I think sadly, the London centric media just isn’t picking up on it

It's the top news item on the front page of the Guardian online so... it is getting picked up on.

I’m in Liverpool and it’s baffling me that we’ve got no extra restrictions yet, especially with all the uni’s starting soon

As you have to enter all your details at the beginning of the test website (name, mobile number, email address, if you have symptoms, when your symptoms started, post code) and then save them to sender the system, the government should be able to extract a fairly accurate number of people who are displaying symptoms and trying to get a test and where in the country they are.

But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if no one has bothered to look at these numbers.

They don’t tell you who has got it, but they do indicate the increase in numbers who have symptoms and where they are in the country.

There are no stats on how many people are trying to get tests and give up. R4's More or Less mentioned this yesterday.

@NightmareLoon the top article is about the North East not the northwest, which is the point I was responding to.

Are there stats on the CFR/IFR broken down by both age and date? I would like to know if the risk for an 80 year old has changed since April.

@littleowl1 thank you for the Covid Messenger email, I really “look forward” to looking at them every morning.

Do you have a line graph of areas in the country with no positives per day (which has now been zero for a few days) and a graph of areas with more than 100 cases per day (going up per day). I could make one myself from all your emails, but others might like to see it.

Apologies of you have already done and posted this somewhere and I’ve missed it.

@Hmmph

But you cannot assume people with symptoms actually have Coronavirus as they vast majority won’t.

The situation in bolton is desperate. Worst affected town outside Spain in Europe. Nobody can get tests. They’re not allowed to socialise with anyone at all and the cases are still skyrocketing despite the fact that loads who want tests can’t get them. They feel totally abandoned.

Why isn't this being reported on? Are the case numbers causing a rise in hospitalisations?

@CessieSparrow - it is being reported on! It was in the news last night and I have been reading about it in the papers.

I’ve also read a lot about the north west and the north east is clearly top of the paper and led on radio 4 this morning ( where is also mentioned the north west). Admittedly I read the Guardian... I’m also from the north so maybe pay particular attention?

[quote Ecosse]@Hmmph

But you cannot assume people with symptoms actually have Coronavirus as they vast majority won’t.[/quote]
No, you can’t. But as people can’t get tests it would give a secondary method of showing how many people are trying to get tests and where in the country they live.

You could then work backwards as in 2 per ever hundred tests are positive (this is a made up number) so assuming all the people who wanted a test go them, you can guess the rate of positives there would have been.

You could also see if a town had a higher number of positives per test and there was an increasing demand in that area, then it would appear that that area was getting a spike.

It would be far better to actually test people, get results and know. But using the data you do have to make estimates is the second best option.

Going back a couple of pages, with regards to de-centralising, which I am also in favour of. BUT, the minute the announcement was made to dismantle PHE as not fit for purpose, huge discontent within Civil Service, and cries of "not fair".

@CessieSparrow

The situation in bolton is desperate. Worst affected town outside Spain in Europe. Nobody can get tests. They’re not allowed to socialise with anyone at all and the cases are still skyrocketing despite the fact that loads who want tests can’t get them. They feel totally abandoned.

Why isn't this being reported on? Are the case numbers causing a rise in hospitalisations?

There has been a big increase in covid admissions ( mainly middle aged white men) at Bolton Royal Infirmary.

Schools: didin't Gavin Williamson say last night a new phone line to be set up for school heads to get better/clear information on what to do when they have poorly children? This seems a good idea, although as usual late, but then I wondered what the hell local councils have been doing, as they should be providing this help and assistance, and should know the "rules". All a mess as usual.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-dismisses-claims-of-fresh-two-week-national-lockdown-12073792

Reports are CW has recommended a 2 week national lockdown

Thoughts?

I'm southern where cases have creeped but not spiked but I super cautious (for personal reasons) so on the fence....

[quote Hmmph]@littleowl1 thank you for the Covid Messenger email, I really “look forward” to looking at them every morning.

Do you have a line graph of areas in the country with no positives per day (which has now been zero for a few days) and a graph of areas with more than 100 cases per day (going up per day). I could make one myself from all your emails, but others might like to see it.

Apologies of you have already done and posted this somewhere and I’ve missed it.[/quote]
@Hmmph

Just cases which can be misleading given different population sizes

0 per day since 1st Aug and 40 or more per day. Plus 7 day rolling average for each.

Covers all 315 English LAs for which data is published (therefore includes all district councils, but not their overall counties)

@PrayingandHoping

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-dismisses-claims-of-fresh-two-week-national-lockdown-12073792

Reports are CW has recommended a 2 week national lockdown

Thoughts?

I'm southern where cases have creeped but not spiked but I super cautious (for personal reasons) so on the fence....

Praying that has been retracted by Costello. It was just Twitter rumour. Not great

@Baaaahhhhh
Not quite
According to Robert peston’s tweets basically PHE can’t cope with the number of schools calling in for advice so the DFE is going to deal with these instead.
So a bod in a call centre is going to deal with schools instead of public health experts.

Since we know know they don't even correlate the number of schools closed or students & staff positive,
I very much doubt if the online test system correlates the numbr of unsuccessful test seekers

So many opportunities wasted to collect data
and good quality data is so valuable in a pandemic, in this case, to get advance warning of problems in testing capacity & infections

then taking 3 complete weeks - each a month apart these graphs show the cases per 100,000 distribution movement. The second graph limits the y axis to 75 cases per 100,000 to give a clearer picture.

@MarshaBradyo well it reads that one person told him one thing and then another has told him it's not true

Who's telling the truth is anyone's guess!!!

@BighouseLittlemouse
Guardian is very sympathetic to the north. Probably because it was originally a Manchester paper. I don’t think other MSM is the same.

No, you can’t. But as people can’t get tests it would give a secondary method of showing how many people are trying to get tests and where in the country they live.

There are over 200,000 tests being carried out every day we are told. So although it seems lots of people can't get tests, there must also be lots of people who can get tests.