Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

@PestymcPestFace

www.slzb.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Dokumente/Hygieneplan_Corona_-_Version_2020_21_2.pdf German infogram

... Brilliant thanks, you nailed it ! That's exactly Prokup's flow diagram and info sheet from Berlin

The thing that concerns me is when my son had it all the symptoms he had were a migraine type headache. He looked awful but no cough. No temp no report of loss of smell.

3 weeks later he got covid toes

With this guidance he would be at school.

Great thanks - Pesty - those things are a closed book to me.

FT: @undertheraedar images of where commuters - workers, students etc - come in from
for London, Birmingham, Manchester, Bradford

Also on that Berlin school doc:

• On presentation of a medical certificate that the child or family member is at high risk if they catch Covid,
  then the child will be given guided online teaching at home & be contacted at least twice weekly

• Classrooms to be ventilated with complete exchange of air at least 1 x hour and at break times

• Masks mandatory in all closed rooms (hallways and stairwells, toilets, cafeteria)
  Parents of those who cannot wear masks must inform school admin in advance

I am in a computer Midlands town. At the moment we are not too bad but its increasing.

DH works in one of the affected areas.

I can see us becoming more of an issue although I am not convinced we will get to restrictions level.

Population density is less, less diverse population and because we are a commuter town, a lot of middle class.

Don't like to sound like a snob bit mask wearing for example is on the whole pretty good (apart from schòol drop off)

The Bavarian rules are described here www.google.com/amp/s/www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/schule-bayern-corona-regeln-1.5020737!amp (link in German).

The two key differences to the Berlin Infographic are that they got secondary school kids to wear masks in class for the first two weeks to reduce the risk of everyone immediately getting sick. After that mask rules depend on local case rates.

Bavaria is also treating primary and secondary pupils differently. Primary pupils can go in with a light cold, secondary pupils have to stay home for 24 hours to see if they develop a fever. If they don't, they can go in. If they do get a fever or any other more serious illness, it's stay off for 36 hours after the fever has cleared. Kids only need to get a corona virus test (through their GP) if case numbers are above 50/100,000. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out in reality, but it at least seems to kept the demand for tests down better than the English approach!

Classrooms to be ventilated with complete exchange of air at least 1 x hour and at break times

I've no idea how many schools in the UK would manage that. Unless I jam my fire door open, no air moves at all. Even with all windows open today, it took a good 10 minutes for a bad fart smell to dissipate.

I very much like the info graphic from Berlin - I had to translate it in a rough fashion! @Prokupatuscrakedatus thank you. DS has the snivels, and despite thinking of myself as very ‘up’ and scientific etc - I had to look up when to refer him for a test or not! It is a confusing world out there.

It does seem to say in the Berlin infographic that:
Runny nose, cough and no fever = no test (is that right?)
Increased temp, runny nose, cough = consult GP and they will advise whether to test or not
2 days fever and/or loss of smell / taste and/or muscle or limb pain and/or persistent cough, shortness of breath, any cold symptoms on tact with suspected Covid or return from risk area = TEST

It is more specific than the UK where temperature and/or cough would both be a criteria for testing.

To even be speculaating / hinting about a 2nd lockdown .... what data do PHE / the govt have that we don't yet ?
Deaths are so low

I hope these are just rumours
A 2nd lockdown would be a fucking disaster

Thanks, Duck Very useful about Bavaria

"Kids only need to get a corona virus test (through their GP) if case numbers are above 50/100,000."

That's just weeks after that bugger Markus Söder (Leader of Bavaria) said everyone in Bavaria could get a free test if they wanted
He's had a sharp rap on the knuckles about test capacity

This was circulated to us in the NW of England as a flowchart to follow

germany has now added some popular tourist areas/metropolitan areas to risk areas. this includes vienna, amsterdam, the hague.

www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/coronavirus-auswaertiges-amt-erlaesst-reisewarnung-fuer-wien-a-1e4675ef-996d-4908-ac2f-0f56de8761cc

here in nl the testing critera is very broad: anyone with cold symptoms basically.
in addition anyone with cold symptoms, regardless of the outcome of the test has to stay at home and self isolate.

Does anyone know why they are announcing new measures for the north east but not the north west? From looking at the data they seem to have very similar case numbers to me

Is there actual evidence that 'kids come down with colds all the time'? I have been apparent for 20 years, a human for more, and a teacher for nearly 30 years and I really don't think, in September, that cold like illnesses are very common. I know some children are more prone (and especially the youngest ones) but no one in my school has what I would call a cold. I have maybe one or two cold like illnesses a year and neither of my DCs are ever ill. If any of us suddenly started feeling unwell, I'd want a test because it would be most unusual.

I am concerned that a lot of research shows children get different symptoms and yet we are still clinging to the 'you must exhibit in this way otherwise we say you don't have it' line.

The NL approach looks more cautious and likely to be more successful.

I don't understand that Bavarian 36 hours thing : surely that will just repress positive test numbers and allow the virus back into schools after 36 hours of incubation? Or are they saying if a fever goes away after a day, it's not Covid? I heard a lab testing man (not a medic )on the news say this yesterday but it was the first I had heard of it that the fever runs to a certain length.? It feels like they are trying all sorts of ways to stop children getting tested simply because they cannot cope.

a parent not apparent!!

Does anyone understand the Belgian rules?

In Belgium they seem to have a stricter "rule of 5".

"Each family (or anyone living together with others) may meet up with a maximum of 5 people. These must always be the same people"

But what does this mean? Can a family of 6 meet a family of 4 but not the other way round?

Then it says

" If you can respect the distance of 1.5 meters, then you can do activities with a maximum of 10 people, for example walking or cycling."

Are those 10 people then allowed to be a different 10 every day?

I know some children are more prone (and especially the youngest ones) but no one in my school has what I would call a cold. I have maybe one or two cold like illnesses a year and neither of my DCs are ever ill. If any of us suddenly started feeling unwell, I'd want a test because it would be most unusual.

Aren’t very young pre school children meant to have on average 7 colds a year? I realise this doesn’t change the argument.

@Hedgehog26

Does anyone know why they are announcing new measures for the north east but not the north west? From looking at the data they seem to have very similar case numbers to me

I think the councils have partially taken matters into their own hands.

They did with schools, most didn't return till a few weeks afterwards in June.

They're angry about lack of input to empty labs which could be used. I think they're estimating that cases are much higher in reality due to last week's test issues.

Colleagues have described huge journeys to the borders/ Scotland to get tests.

There are several universities and colleges returning soon, now.

People are acting as if it's pre Covid in bars and out in the town. they know this is going tits up in a week or two.

Gp friend said young kids get about 10 a year, some more obvious than others.,

My DC have a mild sniffle just now. I would call it a cold. I can't remember when/ how often they get it but its not often anymore than that

Their immune systems may not be as good at the moment. They have been isolated for almost 6 months so as soon as they get exposed to germs they are more likely to get a cold.

One of us always get a cold on holiday too even though its the height of summer.

‘I am concerned that a lot of research shows children get different symptoms and yet we are still clinging to the 'you must exhibit in this way otherwise we say you don't have it' line.‘

Me too

Do we have the stats for how many different people are trying (and failing) to get tests atm? If we took current test positivity percentage and added the amount of people failing to get tests atm that would give a crude idea of how many actual cases (or is that too simplistic?)

As in the same percentage to those trying to get tests