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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:03

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
Faraway20 · 16/09/2020 21:59

I really wish all the graphs being published that show cases spiking higher than the April level also showed the true estimate of April (100k ish per day) cases for comparison. It would stop the media shock articles which really aren't helpful.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:01

Thanks for the info, prokup just what we wanted.

Do you have a link to that Berlin infographic please ?
I've a visual disability and I'd like to zoom into the original to read

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RedToothBrush · 16/09/2020 22:01

One of the issues throughout the whole crisis was how centralised covid services have been and how smaller provicial towns didn't have the same level of facilities.

So far we have been lucky because the outbreak centred on London, but the risk is if we have a very large outbreak provicial services will be overrun very quickly and this will be amplified by economic inequality, a more vulnerable (older) population, a poor level of general health and a lower intensive care beds per head of population - meaning an outbreak going undetected for much longer as its harder to get tested, a population that is less able to get prompt access to medical attention if they need it and services which are more at risk of being stretched.

See this article and map on which places are vulnerable which was written in April:
www.centreforcities.org/blog/where-are-the-most-vulnerable-cities-in-the-uk-coronavirus/

Compare it with what the current hotspot map looks like.

My worry is that we are now seeing a pattern which matches where weakest covid provision and where there is poorer underlying health coming together, because the initial government strategy was most blind in the very places it needed to be most vigilant.

Warrington ISN'T the most vulnerable population in the area. You need to be looking at places like Hull and Knowsley, but Warrington does fall through the cracks in other ways.

It is not reassuring.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:07

red I've been saying from early on that a federal structure with local responsibility, resources and knowledge has great advantages over a highly centralised public health system

Especially when those few people running everything from the centre aren't very bright

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PrayingandHoping · 16/09/2020 22:09

Schools really need better guidance!!

Was at my sport training tonight (group of 6 ladies). One lady granddaughter off school with a cold, no Covid symptoms, school won't let her in until she has a negative test!!! This is ridiculous!! No wonder we are all in a mess.

The school is also clueless as when they asked what to do the school told them to call the gp for a test. The school must have had their head in the sand for months if they think that's how to get a test.

Another lady works in a lab and 2 colleagues off with a cold, no symptoms, also not allowed back in without a negative test.

Anecdotal but I'm raging!!!

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:09

@sirfredfredgeorge

Also I’ve just seen that since March there have been 42047 positive cases in French care homes, and 10528 deaths, so approximately 25% death rate. Does that seem right for care homes? I didn’t think the outcomes were quite that bad...

It suggests there were very large numbers of cases not detected - ie even in care homes there will be asymptomatic and low symptomatic cases which won't need any outside medical care and may not be tested.

As you suggest, no other data as pointed that sort of fatality rate.

.... All European countries are testing massively more than in March-April

So there would be far fewer hidden / unknown cases now than then, including in care homes

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 16/09/2020 22:13

@augustbreeze

I didn't translate that bit (list provided):
fever >38,5 for more than 2 days, shivering, tiredness and / or
impairment of taste, smell and / or
muscle pain and / or
lasting cough, shortness of breath
and of course:
any kind of symptoms after a confirmed contact or return from a high risk area

RedToothBrush · 16/09/2020 22:15

As always its interesting to see it play out.

I can 'see' things cos I seem to simply be in a position which represents all the cracks and deficiencies in the system.

I don't think its just stupid people running things from the centre that are the problem. Its also the fact the media is centred in London too, and has completely lost sight of anything that isn't right under the noses.

I'm kind of despairing this week, cos I can see whats happening a mile off and it has real life implications. I simply don't understand why they have to wait until Friday to actually DO something when its obvious there is a problem which needs decisive action immediately.

I can't understand what the hell they are waiting for apart from it to be 'PHE update day'. If there is a pressing problem why do you need to wait until then? Is it like Johnson and not working Saturday or not being arsed to attend important meetings? Its just dithering.

Its not like I WANT more places in local lockdown - its a question of whether they NEED it.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:16

If you look at the estimated fatality rate given by Spiegelhalter and others for the average age in care homes, then yes that is lower than 25%

However, those age risks are for the total population of that age

Those in care homes would be the most vulnerable and frail of their age group, often with conditions like dementia, Parkinsons, CVD etc
serious conditions that increase the fatality rate in all age groups

OP posts:
PrayingandHoping · 16/09/2020 22:18

@Prokupatuscrakedatus link doesn't work...

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:22

"I don't think its just stupid people running things from the centre that are the problem. Its also the fact the media is centred in London too, and has completely lost sight of anything that isn't right under the noses. "

We don't elect the media to run the country
That's the government's job
They take the blame when it goes wrong and the praise when it goes well

  • would the media be taking plaudits if Covid and tests were being organised well ? No, so they shouldn't take any blame when it isn't

I've not been impressed by talk of moonshots and claims anyone can get tests, or claims about schools.
Spin instead of competent actions

The chumocracy of awarding important contracts and responsibilities to proven incompetents like DIdo Harding is another part of the problem

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wintertravel1980 · 16/09/2020 22:22

Thanks a lot, @Prokupatuscrakedatus. Perhaps, we should send the page with the German testing decision tree to Matt Hancock.

The approach makes a lot of sense. An average child gets 6 to 10 colds a year. They cannot be tested every single time they cough or have got short-term fever. There are risk based decisions to be made to maintain testing capacity for those who need it and the German guidance for children and schools seems very logical and pragmatic.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:24

Prokup The link problem is because of the underlines in the filename messing up in MN-speak
I often get that when I try to give RKI links !

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 16/09/2020 22:26

Sorry, it is a pdf link and automatically downloads the pdf - but perhaps I am doing it wrong.
I try to find the sth better

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:27

The guidelines in Germany are the result of discussions before schools opened, between public health experts and education experts

They are subject to update if the situation changes
For the current Covid situation here, they look very sensible

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:28

Don't worry, Prokup unless you can link to a page that contains this link

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 16/09/2020 22:29

I see, BigChoc, can I do sth about that?

BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:31

For the RKI links, all I can ever do is give the main RKI page containing the link
If you have such a page that's great; otherwise I think we've run out of options Grin

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 16/09/2020 22:35

No, sorry that's all I have - but I take it to the office and try to turn it into jpg's.

ProfessorPootle · 16/09/2020 22:35

We were sent this info from dc junior school today.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:38

That's nice & clear, Prof
Hopefully all schools provide something like this, or a link / printout from a Dept Ed site

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 16/09/2020 22:41

UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns

Footfall, economic recovery etc

https://www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 16/09/2020 22:42

Professor
That seems to follow the same lines as Berlin.
Children come down with cold every few seconds - it gets better the older they get. But school starter years / school changer years are usually the worst.